2018 Gaucho Regatta - Silver

HostSanta Barbara Yacht Club
Date03/10/2018
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#		School	Team	A	B	TOT
1		Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	39	21	60
2		Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Panthers	27	35	62
3		Monte Vista High School	Mustangs	35	32	67
4		Long Beach Wilson High School	Bruins	43	25	68
5		Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings	52	17	69
6		Dos Pueblos	Chargers	21	51	72
7		Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	32	55	87
8		Cathedral Catholic High School	Dons	53	37	90
9		Sage Hill School	Lightning 1	42	54	96
10		Coronado Islanders	Nado	41	65	106
11		The Urban School	Blues	66	46	112
12		Santa Monica High School	Vikings	19	97	116
13		Acalanes High School	Dons	60	64	124
14		Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	73	63	136
15		Marin Catholic	Wildcats	74	70	144
16		La Jolla High School	Vikings	90	56	146
17		Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	61	86	147
18		International HS - SF	Jaguars	94	67	161
19		Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	106	55	161
20	$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Ryūj Dragon	82	95	177
21		Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	105	81	186
22		Campolindo High School	Cougars	84	113	197
23		Sage Hill School	Lightning 2	89	108	197
24		Design Tech High School	d.tech 3	120	104	224
25		Falcons 1	Falcons 1	140 MRP	140 MRP	280 MRP
26		Falcons 2	Falcons 2	148 MRP	143 MRP	291 MRP

	School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
	Santa Monica High School	Vikings	13	2	2	1	1	19	Nicholas Jensen '20 Sam Miller '20
	Dos Pueblos	Chargers	1	8	6	4	2	21	Yannick Gloster '18 [1-5] Tyler Norman '21 [1-2, 5] Claire Wicker '21 [3-4]
	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Panthers	3	1	4	13	6	27	Daren Sathasivam '21 Kaitlin Chan '19
	Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	2	3	15	3	9	32	Jack Lugliani '18 Teddy Knobel '21
	Monte Vista High School	Mustangs	14	11	1	6	3	35	Michael Lively '18 [1-5] Josh Cole '18 [1-2] Thomas Laskarzewski '18 [3-5]
	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	9	7	8	8	7	39	Joe Rico '18 [1-5] Francis Tarpey-Shwed '19 [1-2, 4-5] Jacob Renneisen '18 [3]
	Coronado Islanders	Nado	4	13	3	16	5	41	Conner Mccrillis '20 Jett Jennings '21
	Sage Hill School	Lightning 1	12	9	10	7	4	42	Jonathan Chance '19 Joshua Cheadle '19
	Long Beach Wilson High School	Bruins	11	4	9	2	17	43	Tara Rogers '19 Sam Thompson '21
	Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings	15	10	5	14	8	52	George Soliman '20 Molly Mcleod '21
	Cathedral Catholic High School	Dons	5	15	18	5	10	53	Ryan Mcconnville '18 Alexander Woodmansee '20
	Acalanes High School	Dons	10	12	11	11	16	60	Jasper Reid '21 Parker Mergelkamp '21
	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	8	20	7	12	14	61	Emma Figueredo '19 [1-5] Emma Jones '18 [1-2, 4-5] Alexis Defjen-Creson '19 [3]
	The Urban School	Blues	16	6	14	19	11	66	J.P. Murphy '21 Tristan Bellevin '21
	Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	18	14	13	15	13	73	Dutch Dietrick '20 [1-5] Sofia Kristiansen '19 [1-3, 5] Sophia Burton '20 [4]
	Marin Catholic	Wildcats	6	16	19	21	12	74	Keilah Stypulkoski '19 Lucie Russell '20
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Ryūj Dragon	20	5	12	23	22	82	Nikhil Stewart '21 Diego Lockyer '21
	Campolindo High School	Cougars	19	19	21	10	15	84	Ryter Ullrich '18 Derek Nelson '18
	Sage Hill School	Lightning 2	21	24	16	9	19	89	Ezugo Ononye '20 Rowan Oliphant '20
	La Jolla High School	Vikings	17	18	17	17	21	90	Liam Brinton '18 Sean Ross '21
	International HS - SF	Jaguars	7	23	22	22	20	94	Sabrina Simon '21 Amelia Nugent '21
	Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	23	17	23	18	24	105	Tanner Gee '18 Luke Watson '20
	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	22	21	25	20	18	106	Caton Woll '20 Lia Watson '21
	Design Tech High School	d.tech 3	26	22	24	25	23	120	Josh Goldberg '21 Griffin Conley '21
	Falcons 1	Falcons 1	25	25	20	24	26	140 MRP
	Falcons 2	Falcons 2	24	26	BKD	DNS	25	148 MRP

	School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
	Palos Verdes High School	Sea Kings	8	2	4	2	1	17	Evan Insley '19 Kyla Mclay '21
	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	2	9	2	4	4	21	Griffin Chen '19 Makena Barkus '18
	Long Beach Wilson High School	Bruins	7	3	7	1	7	25	Brett Peoples '20 Charley Snyder '21
	Monte Vista High School	Mustangs	4	7	1	10	10	32	John Dilella '18 Robert Laskarzewski '21
	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Panthers	1	11	6	11	6	35	Cyrus Khaleeli '20 [1-5] Matthew Sun '20 [1-2] Jackson Hoover '20 [3-5]
	Cathedral Catholic High School	Dons	5	17	5	5	5	37	Kyle Gallagher '19 Jacob Titcomb '21
	The Urban School	Blues	3	4	9	16	14	46	Eli Gordon '20 Dinah Luomanen '21
	Dos Pueblos	Chargers	6	1	BKD	18	16	51	Malvina Hogasten '21 Ben Zimmerman '21
	Sage Hill School	Lightning 1	19	5	14	14	2	54	Isabelle Meegan '19 Dylan Strode '18
	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	9	8	12	15	11	55	Lucien Canvinet '20 Anjolie Enz '21
	Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	15	6	24	7	3	55	Jemma Schroder '20 Zoe Flemate '21
	La Jolla High School	Vikings	12	10	16	3	15	56	Joyce Passananti '18 Tyler Cockrell '19
	Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	16	16	8	6	17	63	Gretchen Hohenstein '20 Annika Stiffl '20
	Acalanes High School	Dons	10	14	15	17	8	64	Sophia Browne '20 Lola Rao '20
	Coronado Islanders	Nado	11	13	10	19	12	65	Alex Bastuba '18 [1-2, 5] Charlie Clausen '19 [3-4] Mercy Tangredi '21 [1-2] Katelyn Roberts '20 [3-5]
	International HS - SF	Jaguars	13	22	3	9	20	67	Alexander Kasolas '22 Leila O&;Rourke '20
	Marin Catholic	Wildcats	24	12	17	8	9	70	Gabriella Von Esmarch '19 Thomas Bird '21
	Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	14	20	11	13	23	81	Timmy Gee '20 Kieran Elrod '21
	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	20	15	13	20	18	86	Luke Marshall '20 Lily Hock '20
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Ryūj Dragon	21	23	18	12	21	95	Elisabeth Rossbach '21 [1-5] Elissa Martinez '19 [1-3] Obiora Okeke '21 [4-5]
	Santa Monica High School	Vikings	18	18	19	23	19	97	Shai Skikne '20 Jack Zemke '21
	Design Tech High School	d.tech 3	17	19	21	25	22	104	Erez Harel '20 Madelyn Blessinger '19
	Sage Hill School	Lightning 2	DNF	24	22	22	13	108	Daniel Gamini '19 [1-5] Aiden Arvizu '20 [1-2, 5] Yegor Polakoff '20 [3-4]
	Campolindo High School	Cougars	22	21	20	24	26	113	Carla Leone '20 [1-2] Ronald Hohnsbeen '21 [3-5] Haley Rasilla '22 [1-4] Carla Leone '20 [5]
	Falcons 1	Falcons 1	25	25	25	21	24	140 MRP
	Falcons 2	Falcons 2	23	26	23	26	25	143 MRP

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.080+0.08

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

	Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A
	Acalanes High School Dons	27	27	29	29	31
	Berkeley High School Yellowjackets	28	28	62	62	50
	Campolindo High School Cougars	29	29	31	31	33
	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons	30	30	28	28	62
	Coronado Islanders Nado	31	31	33	33	35
	Design Tech High School d.tech 1	32	32	30	30	28
	Design Tech High School d.tech 2	33	33	35	35	37
	Design Tech High School d.tech 3	34	34	32	32	30
	Dos Pueblos Chargers	35	35	37	37	39
	International HS - SF Jaguars	36	36	34	34	32
	La Jolla High School Vikings	37	37	39	39	41
	Long Beach Wilson High School Bruins	38	38	36	36	34
	Marin Catholic Wildcats	39	39	41	41	43
	Mater Dei High School Monarchs	40	40	38	38	36
	Monte Vista High School Mustangs	41	41	43	43	45
	Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings	42	42	40	40	38
	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Panthers	43	43	45	45	47
	Sage Hill School Lightning 1	44	44	42	42	40
	Sage Hill School Lightning 2	45	45	47	47	49
	Santa Monica High School Vikings	46	46	44	44	42
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Ryūj Dragon	47	47	49	49	61
	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	48	48	46	46	44
	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	49	49	61	61	27
	The Urban School Blues	50	50	48	48	46
	Falcons 1 Falcons 1	61	61	27	27	29
	Falcons 2 Falcons 2	62	62	50	50	48

Division B

	Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B
	Acalanes High School Dons	28	28	30	30	32
	Berkeley High School Yellowjackets	27	27	61	61	49
	Campolindo High School Cougars	30	30	32	32	34
	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons	29	29	27	27	61
	Coronado Islanders Nado	32	32	34	34	36
	Design Tech High School d.tech 1	31	31	29	29	27
	Design Tech High School d.tech 2	34	34	36	36	38
	Design Tech High School d.tech 3	33	33	31	31	29
	Dos Pueblos Chargers	36	36	38	38	40
	International HS - SF Jaguars	35	35	33	33	31
	La Jolla High School Vikings	38	38	40	40	42
	Long Beach Wilson High School Bruins	37	37	35	35	33
	Marin Catholic Wildcats	40	40	42	42	44
	Mater Dei High School Monarchs	39	39	37	37	35
	Monte Vista High School Mustangs	42	42	44	44	46
	Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings	41	41	39	39	37
	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Panthers	44	44	46	46	48
	Sage Hill School Lightning 1	43	43	41	41	39
	Sage Hill School Lightning 2	46	46	48	48	50
	Santa Monica High School Vikings	45	45	43	43	41
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Ryūj Dragon	48	48	50	50	62
	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	47	47	45	45	43
	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	50	50	62	62	28
	The Urban School Blues	49	49	47	47	45
	Falcons 1 Falcons 1	62	62	28	28	30
	Falcons 2 Falcons 2	61	61	49	49	47

	School / Team	Skipper	Crew
	Acalanes High School	Jasper Reid '21	Parker Mergelkamp '21
	Dons	Sophia Browne '20	Lola Rao '20
	Berkeley High School	Caton Woll '20	Lia Watson '21
	Yellowjackets	Lucien Canvinet '20	Anjolie Enz '21
	Campolindo High School	Ryter Ullrich '18	Derek Nelson '18
	Cougars	Carla Leone '20 [1-2] Ronald Hohnsbeen '21 [3-5]	Haley Rasilla '22 [1-4] Carla Leone '20 [5]
	Cathedral Catholic High School	Ryan Mcconnville '18	Alexander Woodmansee '20
	Dons	Kyle Gallagher '19	Jacob Titcomb '21
	Coronado Islanders	Conner Mccrillis '20	Jett Jennings '21
	Nado	Alex Bastuba '18 [1-2, 5] Charlie Clausen '19 [3-4]	Mercy Tangredi '21 [1-2] Katelyn Roberts '20 [3-5]
	Design Tech High School	Jack Lugliani '18	Teddy Knobel '21
	d.tech 1	Jemma Schroder '20	Zoe Flemate '21
	Design Tech High School	Tanner Gee '18	Luke Watson '20
	d.tech 2	Timmy Gee '20	Kieran Elrod '21
	Design Tech High School	Josh Goldberg '21	Griffin Conley '21
	d.tech 3	Erez Harel '20	Madelyn Blessinger '19
	Dos Pueblos	Yannick Gloster '18 [1-5]	Tyler Norman '21 [1-2, 5] Claire Wicker '21 [3-4]
	Chargers	Malvina Hogasten '21	Ben Zimmerman '21
	International HS - SF	Sabrina Simon '21	Amelia Nugent '21
	Jaguars	Alexander Kasolas '22	Leila O&;Rourke '20
	La Jolla High School	Liam Brinton '18	Sean Ross '21
	Vikings	Joyce Passananti '18	Tyler Cockrell '19
	Long Beach Wilson High School	Tara Rogers '19	Sam Thompson '21
	Bruins	Brett Peoples '20	Charley Snyder '21
	Marin Catholic	Keilah Stypulkoski '19	Lucie Russell '20
	Wildcats	Gabriella Von Esmarch '19	Thomas Bird '21
	Mater Dei High School	Dutch Dietrick '20 [1-5]	Sofia Kristiansen '19 [1-3, 5] Sophia Burton '20 [4]
	Monarchs	Gretchen Hohenstein '20	Annika Stiffl '20
	Monte Vista High School	Michael Lively '18 [1-5]	Josh Cole '18 [1-2] Thomas Laskarzewski '18 [3-5]
	Mustangs	John Dilella '18	Robert Laskarzewski '21
	Palos Verdes High School	George Soliman '20	Molly Mcleod '21
	Sea Kings	Evan Insley '19	Kyla Mclay '21
	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School	Daren Sathasivam '21	Kaitlin Chan '19
	Panthers	Cyrus Khaleeli '20 [1-5]	Matthew Sun '20 [1-2] Jackson Hoover '20 [3-5]
	Sage Hill School	Jonathan Chance '19	Joshua Cheadle '19
	Lightning 1	Isabelle Meegan '19	Dylan Strode '18
	Sage Hill School	Ezugo Ononye '20	Rowan Oliphant '20
	Lightning 2	Daniel Gamini '19 [1-5]	Aiden Arvizu '20 [1-2, 5] Yegor Polakoff '20 [3-4]
	Santa Monica High School	Nicholas Jensen '20	Sam Miller '20
	Vikings	Shai Skikne '20	Jack Zemke '21
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Nikhil Stewart '21	Diego Lockyer '21
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Ryūj Dragon	Elisabeth Rossbach '21 [1-5]	Elissa Martinez '19 [1-3] Obiora Okeke '21 [4-5]
	Tamalpais High School	Joe Rico '18 [1-5]	Francis Tarpey-Shwed '19 [1-2, 4-5] Jacob Renneisen '18 [3]
	Red Tailed Hawks 1	Griffin Chen '19	Makena Barkus '18
	Tamalpais High School	Emma Figueredo '19 [1-5]	Emma Jones '18 [1-2, 4-5] Alexis Defjen-Creson '19 [3]
	Red Tailed Hawks 2	Luke Marshall '20	Lily Hock '20
	The Urban School	J.P. Murphy '21	Tristan Bellevin '21
	Blues	Eli Gordon '20	Dinah Luomanen '21

Conditions — 03/10/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 94% · Pressure 1014.5 hPa

Temperature

59°F

↑ 64°F ↓ 57°F

Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.1 kn

avg · max 5.4 kn

Gusts to 21.2 kn

From SE (135°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.8 hrs Humidity94% Pressure1014.5 hPa Rain0.26 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 7 kn · S 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Santa Barbara Yacht Club: a typical day (−0.00)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.02 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.02

Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.30 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Santa Barbara Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Santa Barbara Yacht Club: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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