Kent Island Spring Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 9 5 14
2 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 12 14 26
3 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 15 15 30
4 Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 15 20 35
5 Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 31 11 42
6 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 21 29 50
7 Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day 16 35 51
8 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 33 20 53
9 Patuxent Patuxent Patuxent 28 31 59
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 3 4 1 1 9 Morgan Essex '19
Elizabeth Cottage '21
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 2 2 5 3 12 Christopher Callaghan '20
Timothy Dixon '20
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 1 1 8 5 15 Crispin Blamphin '18 [1-2]
Doug Macdonald '19 [3-4]
Scott Carlsen '20 [1-2]
Riley Van Liew '20 [3-4]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 4 5 4 2 15 Lochlann Ludwig '21
Braedon Myers '20
Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day 6 3 3 4 16 Sam Rifkind-Brown '21 [1-2]
Patrick Elwood '20 [3-4]
Maggie Bruty '21 [1-2]
Akash Harjivan '20 [3-4]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 7 6 2 6 21 Audrey Commerford '21
Hannah Davis '20
Patuxent Patuxent Patuxent 5 7 7 9 28 Carolyn Wilson '20
Grace Wilson '23
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 9 9 6 7 31 Ally Snead '19 [1-4]
Maeve Drury '19 [1-2]
Liam Gallagher '20 [3-4]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 8 8 9 8 33 Lukas Folio '20 [1-4]
Deniz Ayhan '24 [1-2]
Robert Mailley '20 [3-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
North East River High School North East River High School Road Warriors 1 1 2 1 5 Skylor Sweet '22
Lauren O'Neill '20
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 5 3 1 2 11 Will Dickinson '22 [1-4]
Adeline Mock '22 [1-2]
Charlotte Dickinson '21 [3-4]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 2 4 4 4 14 Brady Kinslow '20 [1-2]
Olivia Taylor '19 [3-4]
Nicholas Fernbaugh '20 [1-2]
Jacob Richardson '20 [3-4]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 3 2 5 5 15 Will Miller '20
Shaun Ransford '19
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Buccaneers 4 6 3 7 20 Aliya Berger '20 [1-2]
Alex Park '20 [3-4]
Mary Macdonald '20 [1-2]
Andrew Hampton '20 [3-4]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 6 5 6 3 20 Henry Haddon '20 [1-4]
Thomas Leggett '21 [1-2]
Maggie Bruty '21 [3-4]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 7 7 9 6 29 Tehya Gaines '21
Gabe Gutierrez '20
Patuxent Patuxent Patuxent 8 8 7 8 31 Perrin Hupp '20
Josie Smith '18
Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day 9 9 8 9 35 Eli Perl '21 [1-2]
Lars Nordquist '20 [3-4]
William Edwards '20 [1-2]
Francesca Penati '22 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (25 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Georgetown Day SchoolGeorgetown Day School Georgetown Day7799
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets8811
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles9922
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers1133
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders2244
North East River High SchoolNorth East River High School Road Warriors3355
PatuxentPatuxent Patuxent4466
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights5577
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity6688

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Georgetown Day SchoolGeorgetown Day School Georgetown Day8811
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets9922
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles1133
Kent Island High SchoolKent Island High School Buccaneers2244
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders3355
North East River High SchoolNorth East River High School Road Warriors4466
PatuxentPatuxent Patuxent5577
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights6688
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity7799
School / Team SkipperCrew
Georgetown Day School Georgetown Day School Sam Rifkind-Brown '21 [1-2]
Patrick Elwood '20 [3-4]
Maggie Bruty '21 [1-2]
Akash Harjivan '20 [3-4]
Georgetown Day Eli Perl '21 [1-2]
Lars Nordquist '20 [3-4]
William Edwards '20 [1-2]
Francesca Penati '22 [3-4]
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Lochlann Ludwig '21 Braedon Myers '20
Hornets Will Miller '20 Shaun Ransford '19
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Ally Snead '19 [1-4] Maeve Drury '19 [1-2]
Liam Gallagher '20 [3-4]
Eagles Will Dickinson '22 [1-4] Adeline Mock '22 [1-2]
Charlotte Dickinson '21 [3-4]
Kent Island High School Kent Island High School Crispin Blamphin '18 [1-2]
Doug Macdonald '19 [3-4]
Scott Carlsen '20 [1-2]
Riley Van Liew '20 [3-4]
Buccaneers Aliya Berger '20 [1-2]
Alex Park '20 [3-4]
Mary Macdonald '20 [1-2]
Andrew Hampton '20 [3-4]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Audrey Commerford '21 Hannah Davis '20
Raiders Tehya Gaines '21 Gabe Gutierrez '20
North East River High School North East River High School Morgan Essex '19 Elizabeth Cottage '21
Road Warriors Skylor Sweet '22 Lauren O'Neill '20
Patuxent Patuxent Carolyn Wilson '20 Grace Wilson '23
Patuxent Perrin Hupp '20 Josie Smith '18
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Christopher Callaghan '20 Timothy Dixon '20
Knights Brady Kinslow '20 [1-2]
Olivia Taylor '19 [3-4]
Nicholas Fernbaugh '20 [1-2]
Jacob Richardson '20 [3-4]
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Lukas Folio '20 [1-4] Deniz Ayhan '24 [1-2]
Robert Mailley '20 [3-4]
Varsity Henry Haddon '20 [1-4] Thomas Leggett '21 [1-2]
Maggie Bruty '21 [3-4]

Conditions — 04/07/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1013.8 hPa

Temperature

42°F
↑ 45°F   ↓ 41°F
Feels like 31°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.2 kn
avg  ·  max 17.0 kn
Gusts to 25.5 kn
From N (352°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine0.5 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1013.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Kent Island: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.22)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.35
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.33 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.22 means a rating gap counts about 19% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kent Island by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Kent Island, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →