NorCal #3 GOLD

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Alameda High School Alameda High School Hornets 1 9 9
2 Santa Cruz High School Santa Cruz High School Cardinal 23 23
3 The Urban School The Urban School Blues 24 24
4 Alameda High School Alameda High School Hornets 2 25 25
5 Alameda High School Alameda High School Hornets 3 36 36
6 Berkeley High School Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 37 37
7 Sir Francis Drake Sir Francis Drake Pirates 2 44 44
8 Sir Francis Drake Sir Francis Drake Pirates 1 54 54
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Alameda High School Alameda High School Hornets 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 9 Henry Boeger '21
Simon Boeger '19
Santa Cruz High School Santa Cruz High School Cardinal 2 5 1 3 5 4 3 23 Kyle Schaefer '21
Trace Laskey '21
The Urban School The Urban School Blues 5 4 4 4 2 3 2 24 J.P. Murphy '21
Christopher Mullen '21
Alameda High School Alameda High School Hornets 2 3 7 3 2 3 1 6 25 Carl Fhyr '21 [1-3, 7]
Kyle Hoffman '22 [4-6]
Sean Tolen '21 [1-3, 7]
Alameda High School Alameda High School Hornets 3 4 6 6 5 4 7 4 36 Liam Orozco '19 [1-7]
Cooper Butler-Brown '21 [1-5]
Matthew Shih '22 [6-7]
Berkeley High School Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 6 3 5 6 6 6 5 37 Max Rodman '18
Eli Kelley '20
Sir Francis Drake Sir Francis Drake Pirates 2 7 2 8 7 8 5 7 44 Noah Sanders '18
Will Burkhart '20
Sir Francis Drake Sir Francis Drake Pirates 1 8 8 7 8 7 8 8 54 Elsa Simenstad '21
Grace Glass '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Alameda High SchoolAlameda High School Hornets 141414141414141
Alameda High SchoolAlameda High School Hornets 242424242424242
Alameda High SchoolAlameda High School Hornets 343434343434343
Berkeley High SchoolBerkeley High School Yellowjackets0000000
Santa Cruz High SchoolSanta Cruz High School Cardinal103103103103103103103
Sir Francis DrakeSir Francis Drake Pirates 159595959595959
Sir Francis DrakeSir Francis Drake Pirates 261616161616161
The Urban SchoolThe Urban School Blues1111111
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Alameda High School Alameda High School Hornets 1 Henry Boeger '21 Simon Boeger '19
Alameda High School Alameda High School Hornets 2 Carl Fhyr '21 [1-3, 7]
Kyle Hoffman '22 [4-6]
Sean Tolen '21 [1-3, 7]
Alameda High School Alameda High School Hornets 3 Liam Orozco '19 [1-7] Cooper Butler-Brown '21 [1-5]
Matthew Shih '22 [6-7]
Berkeley High School Berkeley High School Yellowjackets Max Rodman '18 Eli Kelley '20
Santa Cruz High School Santa Cruz High School Cardinal Kyle Schaefer '21 Trace Laskey '21
Sir Francis Drake Sir Francis Drake Pirates 1 Elsa Simenstad '21 Grace Glass '19
Sir Francis Drake Sir Francis Drake Pirates 2 Noah Sanders '18 Will Burkhart '20
The Urban School The Urban School Blues J.P. Murphy '21 Christopher Mullen '21

Conditions — 02/17/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 1020.2 hPa

Temperature

59°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.0 kn
avg  ·  max 6.5 kn
Gusts to 14.4 kn
From WSW (248°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1020.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Redwood: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.73 ± 0.27)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Redwood by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Redwood: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →