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NorCal #3 SILVER

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Henry M. Gunn High School Henry M. Gunn High School Titans 14 14
2 Acalanes High School Acalanes High School Dons 25 25
3 International HS - San Francisco, CA International HS - San Francisco, CA Jaguars 25 25
4 Athenian Athenian Owls 2 47 47
5 Kirby School Kirby School Griffins 48 48
6 College Park High School College Park High School Falcons 48 MRP 48 MRP
7 Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2 49 49
8 Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1 56 56
9 Los Altos High Los Altos High Eagles 60 60
10 Aptos High School Aptos High School Mariners 73 73
11 Athenian Athenian Owls 1 81 81
12 Yellowjackets Yellowjackets Yellowjackets 82 82
13 Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 1 94 MRP 94 MRP
14 Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 2 99 MRP 99 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Henry M. Gunn High School Henry M. Gunn High School Titans 2 5 1 2 2 1 1 14 Nelea Fong '20
Poshu Ng '21
Acalanes High School Acalanes High School Dons 1 2 2 6 5 4 5 25 Sophia Browne '20
Lola Rao '20
International HS - San Francisco, CA International HS - San Francisco, CA Jaguars 10 6 3 1 1 2 2 25 Sara Tamayo-Correa '18
Amelia Nugent '21
Athenian Athenian Owls 2 3 3 6 RAF 9 5 6 47 Alisa Chernikova '19
Julieanna Fajardo '20
Kirby School Kirby School Griffins 4 4 12 5 4 OCS 4 48 Michael Yang-Murray '21
Jonathon Veis '21
College Park High School College Park High School Falcons 5 1 9 4 3 3 3 48 MRP Nate Holden '21 [1-2, 4-7]
Jack Holden '22 [3]
Jake Botting '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Nate Holden '21 [3]
Jack Holden '22 [4, 7]
Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2 11 8 5 3 6 9 7 49 Nickolas Monrique '19 [1, 3, 5, 7]
Joshua Holzer '19 [2, 4, 6]
Phineas Koehn '17 [1-7]
Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1 9 12 4 8 8 7 8 56 Alexis Defjen-Creson '19 [1, 3, 5, 7]
Savanna Defjen-Creson '19 [2, 4, 6]
Aquinnah Todd '21 [1-7]
Los Altos High Los Altos High Eagles 8 7 7 10 7 10 11 60 Nick Eletich '21
Flynn Kelley '22
Aptos High School Aptos High School Mariners 12 9 11 7 10 11 13 73 Ximena Greatorex '21
Alyssa Meyer '20
Athenian Athenian Owls 1 6 14 DNF DNS DNS 6 10 81 Jackson Yeomans '18
Annie Chan '21
Yellowjackets Yellowjackets Yellowjackets 13 11 10 12 12 12 12 82
Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 1 7 10 8 9 13 13 14 94 MRP Josh Goldberg '21 [1-7]
Kieran Elron '21 [1-2, 5-7]
Teddy Knobel '21 [3-4]
Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 2 14 13 13 11 11 8 9 99 MRP Michael Mcculloch '21 [1-7]
Griffin Conley '21 [1-2, 5-7]
Uthman Alaoui '20 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Acalanes High SchoolAcalanes High School Dons47474747474747
Aptos High SchoolAptos High School Mariners105105105105105105105
YellowjacketsYellowjackets Yellowjackets67676767676767
College Park High SchoolCollege Park High School Falcons46464646464646
Design Tech High SchoolDesign Tech High School d.tech 140404040404040
Design Tech High SchoolDesign Tech High School d.tech 239393939393939
Henry M. Gunn High SchoolHenry M. Gunn High School Titans38383838383838
International HS - San Francisco, CAInternational HS - San Francisco, CA Jaguars7777777
Kirby SchoolKirby School Griffins107107107107107107107
Los Altos HighLos Altos High Eagles37373737373737
Tamalpais High SchoolTamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1139139139139139139139
Tamalpais High SchoolTamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 279797979797979
AthenianAthenian Owls 144444444444444
AthenianAthenian Owls 245454545454545
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Acalanes High School Acalanes High School Dons Sophia Browne '20 Lola Rao '20
Aptos High School Aptos High School Mariners Ximena Greatorex '21 Alyssa Meyer '20
Athenian Athenian Owls 1 Jackson Yeomans '18 Annie Chan '21
Athenian Athenian Owls 2 Alisa Chernikova '19 Julieanna Fajardo '20
College Park High School College Park High School Falcons Nate Holden '21 [1-2, 4-7]
Jack Holden '22 [3]		 Jake Botting '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Nate Holden '21 [3]
Jack Holden '22 [4, 7]
Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 1 Josh Goldberg '21 [1-7] Kieran Elron '21 [1-2, 5-7]
Teddy Knobel '21 [3-4]
Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 2 Michael Mcculloch '21 [1-7] Griffin Conley '21 [1-2, 5-7]
Uthman Alaoui '20 [3-4]
Henry M. Gunn High School Henry M. Gunn High School Titans Nelea Fong '20 Poshu Ng '21
International HS - San Francisco, CA International HS - San Francisco, CA Jaguars Sara Tamayo-Correa '18 Amelia Nugent '21
Kirby School Kirby School Griffins Michael Yang-Murray '21 Jonathon Veis '21
Los Altos High Los Altos High Eagles Nick Eletich '21 Flynn Kelley '22
Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1 Alexis Defjen-Creson '19 [1, 3, 5, 7]
Savanna Defjen-Creson '19 [2, 4, 6]		 Aquinnah Todd '21 [1-7]
Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2 Nickolas Monrique '19 [1, 3, 5, 7]
Joshua Holzer '19 [2, 4, 6]		 Phineas Koehn '17 [1-7]

Conditions — 02/17/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 1020.2 hPa

Temperature

59°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.0 kn
avg  ·  max 6.5 kn
Gusts to 14.4 kn
From WSW (248°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1020.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Redwood: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.16
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.94 ± 0.32)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Redwood by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Redwood: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →