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Raritan Tuesday Series 5-08-18

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 22 22
2 Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 23 23
3 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 23 23
4 Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 24 24
5 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 25 25
6 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 25 25
7 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 31 31
8 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 38 38
9 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 42 42
10 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 43 43
11 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 50 50
12 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 53 53
13 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 58 58
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 3 5 6 5 3 22 Evan Hybl '19
Luke Browne '20
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 7 2 2 4 8 23 Caroline Maher '21
Anna Schwartz '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 8 1 1 2 11 23 Hannah Mercurio '20
Mia Chmelar '19
Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 1 3 5 3 12 24 Harrison Bailey '18
Alexandra Savin '21
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 2 8 3 7 5 25 Mack Totman '19
Jack Quinn '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 4 7 12 1 1 25 Sophie Lusty '20
Avery Anderson '21
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 6 9 4 6 6 31 Patrick Murray '19
Quinn Collins '21
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 12 4 10 10 2 38 Thomas Marino '21
Royce Ankel '21
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 10 6 13 9 4 42 Luke Duplessis '20
Ryan Mayes '19
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 5 11 7 13 7 43 Kevin Tang '19
Kyle Simandy '18
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 11 13 8 8 10 50 Veloce Scott '21
Amanda Williams '21
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 DNS 10 9 11 9 53 Maximillian Duffy '21
Jared Simonetti '21
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 9 12 11 12 DNS 58 Paul Danenberg '19
Henry Gallagher '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (30 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 111111
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 222222
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 344444
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 466666
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 577777
Oak Knoll SchoolOak Knoll School Royals1515151515
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers33333
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 11010101010
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 21111111111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 31212121212
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 41313131313
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 51717171717
Westfield High SchoolWestfield High School Blue Devils1111111111

Conditions — 05/08/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1024.0 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.0 kn
avg  ·  max 6.2 kn
Gusts to 17.1 kn
From ESE (111°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover37% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1024.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Summit: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.01
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.58 ± 0.26)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →