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Raritan Tuesday Series 5-1-18

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 18 18
2 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 22 22
3 Royals Royals Royals 22 22
4 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 24 24
5 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 28 28
6 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 7 30 30
7 Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 31 31
8 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 34 34
9 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 42 42
10 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 42 42
11 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 56 56
12 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 63 63
13 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 66 66
14 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 6 69 69
15 Pirates Pirates Pirates 69 69
16 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 74 74
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 7 1 1 6 3 18 Patrick Murray '19
Quinn Collins '21
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 4 3 7 7 1 22 Kelsey Kennedy '18
Avery Anderson '21
Royals Royals Royals 6 6 2 1 7 22
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 3 4 3 10 4 24 Hannah Mercurio '20
Mia Chmelar '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 2 7 6 8 5 28 Sophie Lusty '20
Liz Colao '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 7 1 BKD 13 2 8 30 Thomas Quinn '18
Jack Quinn '20
Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 12 2 11 4 2 31 Harrison Bailey '18
Tomas Rios '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 9 5 4 3 13 34 Mack Totman '19
Ben Sampson '20
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 5 8 8 12 9 42 Thomas Marino '21
Royce Ankel '21
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 11 10 10 5 6 42 Evan Hybl '19
Michael Ahern '21
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 8 11 15 11 11 56 Ryan Mayes '19
Luke Duplessis '20
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 15 9 5 DNS DNS 63 Zoe Papier '19
Stephanie Twentyman '21
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 13 DNS 9 DNS 10 66 Yumtsokyi Bhum '19
Katie Caviness '21
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 6 14 12 14 DNS 12 69 Veloce Scott '21
Maximillian Duffy '21
Pirates Pirates Pirates DNS DNS 12 9 14 69
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 10 13 DNS DNS DNS 74 Paul Danenberg '19
Jared Simonetti '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (30 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 111111
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 222222
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 333333
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 444444
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 566666
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 61212121212
RoyalsRoyals Royals1515151515
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 199999
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 21010101010
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 31111111111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 41212121212
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 51313131313
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 61414141414
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 71717171717
PiratesPirates Pirates1111111111
Westfield High SchoolWestfield High School Blue Devils99999

Conditions — 05/01/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 37%  ·  Pressure 1018.0 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.9 kn
avg  ·  max 7.6 kn
Gusts to 19.4 kn
From WNW (283°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity37% Pressure1018.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Summit: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.76 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →