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Raritan Tuesday Series 4-24-18

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 11 11
2 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 12 12
3 Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 19 19
4 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 23 23
5 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 30 30
6 Royals 1 Royals 1 Royals 1 32 32
7 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 35 35
8 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 38 38
9 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 45 45
10 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 46 46
11 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 47 47
12 Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 65 65
13 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 66 66
14 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 70 70
15 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 71 71
16 Royals 2 Royals 2 Royals 2 73 73
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 1 1 4 1 4 11 Thomas Quinn '18
Kelsey Kennedy '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 3 3 1 3 2 12 Mack Totman '19
Ben Sampson '20
Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils 4 2 2 4 7 19 Harrison Bailey '18
Tomas Rios '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 7 8 3 2 3 23 Hannah Mercurio '20
Liz Colao '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 5 6 6 7 6 30 Sophie Lusty '20
Mia Chmelar '19
Royals 1 Royals 1 Royals 1 6 4 12 5 5 32
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 10 9 7 8 1 35 Malcolm Harrison '19
Jack Quinn '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 9 5 5 10 9 38 Evan Hybl '19 [1-5]
Avery Anderson '21 [1-3]
Michael Ahern '21 [4-5]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 8 7 13 9 8 45 Thomas Marino '21
Katie Caviness '21
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 2 13 10 11 10 46 Luke Duplessis '20
Ryan Mayes '19
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 11 11 8 6 11 47 Kevin Tang '19
Marietou Biteye '18
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 14 15 9 13 14 65 Mountain Lakes '16
Accidental Gybe '15
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 13 12 11 15 15 66 Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [1-5]
Henry Gallagher '20 [1-3]
Jake Simonetti '21 [4-5]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 16 16 14 12 12 70 Veloce Scott '21
James Mccarron '18
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 15 14 15 14 13 71 Zoe Papier '19
Maximillian Duffy '21
Royals 2 Royals 2 Royals 2 12 10 DNS DNS DNS 73
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 199999
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 255555
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 344444
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 466666
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 588888
Royals 1Royals 1 Royals 11515151515
Royals 2Royals 2 Royals 21616161616
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers22222
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 11010101010
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 21212121212
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 31313131313
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 41414141414
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 599999
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 677777
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates33333
Westfield High SchoolWestfield High School Blue Devils1111111111
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [1-5] Henry Gallagher '20 [1-3]
Jake Simonetti '21 [4-5]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 Luke Duplessis '20 Ryan Mayes '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 Thomas Marino '21 Katie Caviness '21
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 Zoe Papier '19 Maximillian Duffy '21
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 Veloce Scott '21 James Mccarron '18
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers Kevin Tang '19 Marietou Biteye '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 Thomas Quinn '18 Kelsey Kennedy '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 Evan Hybl '19 [1-5] Avery Anderson '21 [1-3]
Michael Ahern '21 [4-5]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 Malcolm Harrison '19 Jack Quinn '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 Mack Totman '19 Ben Sampson '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 Sophie Lusty '20 Mia Chmelar '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 Hannah Mercurio '20 Liz Colao '19
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates Mountain Lakes '16 Accidental Gybe '15
Westfield High School Westfield High School Blue Devils Harrison Bailey '18 Tomas Rios '18

Conditions — 04/28/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 75%  ·  Pressure 1009.4 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.5 kn
avg  ·  max 7.1 kn
Gusts to 23.7 kn
From S (185°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover66% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1009.4 hPa Rain0.11 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Summit: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.61 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →