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Raritan Tuesday Series 3-27-18

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 5 5
2 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 12 12
3 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 13 13
4 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 17 17
5 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 19 19
6 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 24 24
7 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 26 26
8 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 39 39
9 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 6 39 39
10 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 41 41
11 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 46 46
12 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 47 47
13 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 53 53
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 2 1 1 1 5 Thomas Quinn '18
Kelsey Kennedy '18
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 4 3 3 2 12 Patrick Murray '19
Mia Chmelar '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 1 2 4 6 13 Sophie Lusty '20
Michael Ahern '21
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 5 5 2 5 17 Mack Totman '19
Ben Sampson '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 3 4 8 4 19 Quinn Collins '21
Jack Quinn '20
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 7 8 6 3 24 Luke Duplessis '20
Royce Ankel '21
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 8 6 5 7 26 Kevin Tang '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 9 11 9 10 39 Yumtsokyi Bhum '19
Stephanie Twentyman '21
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 6 DNS 10 7 8 39
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 6 7 DNS DNS 41 Hannah Mercurio '20
Avery Anderson '21
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 DNS 9 DNS 9 46 Thomas Marino '21
Annika Neumann-Loreck '21
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 DNS 12 10 11 47 Paul Danenberg '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 DNS DNS 11 DNS 53 Zoe Papier '19
James Mccarron '18
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (30 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 11111
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 24444
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 35555
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 47777
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 58888
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 69999
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers2222
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 17777
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 210101010
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 311111111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 412121212
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 514141414
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 617171717

Conditions — 03/27/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 50%  ·  Pressure 1032.2 hPa

Temperature

40°F
↑ 44°F   ↓ 31°F
Feels like 33°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.7 kn
avg  ·  max 4.7 kn
Gusts to 13.0 kn
From ESE (123°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine6.2 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1032.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 9 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Summit: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.79 ± 0.30)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →