SMR JV Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 1 25 5 30
2 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 1 12 21 33
3 Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 10 29 39
4 Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 14 30 44
5 Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 2 29 27 56
6 Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 2 30 28 58
7 Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 30 29 59
8 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 42 21 63
9 St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 33 36 69
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 1 4 2 2 1 10 Lochlann Ludwig '21
Braedon Myers '20
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 1 2 1 1 5 3 12 Matthew Collinson '20
Kai Parker '22
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 4 2 5 1 2 14 Sam Rifkind-Brown '21
Phoebe Pressler '21
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 1 7 3 7 3 5 25 Erika Wise '19
Bianca Melton '19
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 2 3 8 3 9 6 29 Addison Musick '20
Andrew Norris '20
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 2 5 7 8 6 4 30 Ole Singelstad '21
Alexander Harkowa '21
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 8 5 4 4 9 30 Lucas Folio '20
Maggie Bruty '21
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 6 6 6 7 8 33 Christopher Callaghan '20 [1-5]
Timothy Dixon '20 [1-4]
Jacob Richardson '20 [5]
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 9 9 9 8 7 42 Josie Smith '18 [1-2]
Henry Meiser '23 [3-5]
Omar Davis '23 [1-2]
Will Ehrmantraut '23 [3-4]
Grace Wilson '23 [5]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 Makenna Labor '21
Audrey Commerford '21
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 1 3 5 3 4 6 21 Mary Nolan '21
Sarah Rosa '20
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 7 8 2 2 2 21 Grace Wilson '23 [1-2]
Omar Davis '23 [3-5]
Derick Fahnestock '22 [1-2]
Leonardtown High School Leonardtown High School Raiders 2 4 7 6 3 7 27 Tehya Gaines '21
Gabe Gutierrez '20
Sts. Peter & Paul Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres 2 9 2 4 8 5 28 Amy Christopherson '21
Ryleigh Kealy '21
Walt Whitman High School Walt Whitman High School Varsity 2 4 DSQ 9 4 29 Caden Mueller '22
Deniz Ayhan '24
Great Mills High School Great Mills High School Hornets 5 3 5 7 9 29 Will Miller '20
Peter Morris '23
Unregistered-MASSA Unregistered-MASSA Pirates 8 6 7 6 3 30 Eli Perl '21 [1-2]
Robert Mailley '20 [3-5]
William Edwards '20 [1-2]
St. Mary's Ryken St. Mary's Ryken Knights 6 9 8 5 8 36 Brady Kinslow '20 [1-2]
Olivia Taylor '19 [3-5]
Nicholas Fernbaugh '20 [1-2]
Kaitlyn Brouillette '20 [3-5]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets11335
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders 122446
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders 233557
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers44668
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres 155779
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres 266881
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights77992
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates88113
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity99224

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Great Mills High SchoolGreat Mills High School Hornets22446
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders 133557
Leonardtown High SchoolLeonardtown High School Raiders 244668
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers55779
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres 166881
Sts. Peter & PaulSts. Peter & Paul Sabres 277992
St. Mary's RykenSt. Mary's Ryken Knights88113
Unregistered-MASSAUnregistered-MASSA Pirates99224
Walt Whitman High SchoolWalt Whitman High School Varsity11335

Conditions — 05/12/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1016.5 hPa

Temperature

82°F
↑ 90°F   ↓ 72°F
Feels like 86°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 8.0 kn
Gusts to 26.2 kn
From WSW (244°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover36% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1016.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St Mary's Ryken: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.89 ± 0.33)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St Mary's Ryken by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at St Mary's Ryken: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →