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# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Greenies Greenies Greenies 8 8
2 Fighting Irish Fighting Irish Fighting Irish 16 16
3 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 20 20
4 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 26 26
5 Benjamin Franklin 1 Benjamin Franklin 1 Benjamin Franklin 1 31 31
6 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 33 33
7 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 36 36
8 Benjamin Franklin 2 Benjamin Franklin 2 Benjamin Franklin 2 47 47
9 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 62 62
10 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 5 62 62
11 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 4 64 64
12 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 6 72 72
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Greenies Greenies Greenies 1 1 1 1 1 3 8
Fighting Irish Fighting Irish Fighting Irish 5 3 2 3 2 1 16
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 4 2 3 5 4 2 20 Joshua Grumme '20
Joel Grumme '21
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 7 4 6 2 3 4 26 Frederick Cabell '19 [1-3]
William Diaz '20 [4-6]
Wallace St. Paul '21 [1-5]
Frederick Cabell '19 [6]
Benjamin Franklin 1 Benjamin Franklin 1 Benjamin Franklin 1 6 5 4 4 5 7 31
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 3 6 5 6 8 5 33 Tylar Warren '18 [1-6]
Elsie Leblanc '20 [1-4]
Macy Jones '20 [5-6]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 2 7 7 7 7 6 36 Delaney Ligori '18
Karen Stiegler '21
Benjamin Franklin 2 Benjamin Franklin 2 Benjamin Franklin 2 8 8 8 9 6 8 47
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 9 11 11 11 11 9 62 Elizabeth Squires '18
Ava Allen '18
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 5 10 10 10 10 9 DNS 62 Riley Reech '20
Corinne Martin '20
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 4 11 9 9 12 10 DNS 64 Cassidy O'Brien '21
Sophie Chevis '21
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 6 DNS DNF DNF 8 12 DNS 72 Kennedy Cooper '20 [1-6]
Christina Scavo '20 [1-3]
Sarah Poche '19 [4-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Benjamin Franklin 1Benjamin Franklin 1 Benjamin Franklin 1101101101101101101
Benjamin Franklin 2Benjamin Franklin 2 Benjamin Franklin 2106106106106106106
GreeniesGreenies Greenies722172217221722172217221
Fighting IrishFighting Irish Fighting Irish949494949494
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1871787178717871787178717
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2871987198719871987198719
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 1102102102102102102
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 2104104104104104104
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions 3172717271727172717271727
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 1 Frederick Cabell '19 [1-3]
William Diaz '20 [4-6]		 Wallace St. Paul '21 [1-5]
Frederick Cabell '19 [6]
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 2 Joshua Grumme '20 Joel Grumme '21
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 1 Delaney Ligori '18 Karen Stiegler '21
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 2 Tylar Warren '18 [1-6] Elsie Leblanc '20 [1-4]
Macy Jones '20 [5-6]
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 3 Elizabeth Squires '18 Ava Allen '18
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 4 Cassidy O'Brien '21 Sophie Chevis '21
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 5 Riley Reech '20 Corinne Martin '20
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 6 Kennedy Cooper '20 [1-6] Christina Scavo '20 [1-3]
Sarah Poche '19 [4-6]

Conditions — 02/03/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 68%  ·  Pressure 1024.0 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 41°F
Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.3 kn
avg  ·  max 9.3 kn
Gusts to 19.0 kn
From E (84°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine2.8 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1024.0 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Stanislaus: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.17)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.19 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.36
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+1.21 ± 0.39)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.17 means a rating gap counts about 15% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Stanislaus by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at St. Stanislaus, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →