| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses | 8–0 |
| 2 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 2–6 |
| 3 |  |
Nansemond-Suffolk Academy | Saints | 2–1 |
| 4 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 2–4 |
| 5 |  |
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | 1–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 4,352 team race matches sailed before 2018-04-19, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 11 of 12 matches (92%) with a log-loss of 0.211 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.41 ± 0.56: a typical event, more orderly than 71% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses | 1 | 8.31 | Nathan Smith / Louie Lafevre 2.71 Benton Amthor / Anna Flynn 2.82 6–0 Robert Bragg / Clare Elden Gaule 3.19 6–0 Duke Cowart / Clare Elden Gaule 2–0 John Vail / Anna Flynn 1.98 2–0 | 89% | 8–0 (100%) | +0.9 |
| 2 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks | 3 | 6.44 school −0.06 | Parker Purrington / Jon Krueger 1.86 Ellie Maus / Matt Wright 2.61 1–6 Chris Robertson / Sam Beck 2.04 1–6 Sarah Smith / Jenks Britt 1.82 2–0 | 33% | 2–6 (25%) | −0.7 |
| 4 | Maury High School Commodores | 4 | 1.98 | Jalen Rogers / Sophia Bibbo 0.43 Paul Trudell / Emily Palmer 1.10 Tyler Cason / Kate Weaver 0.46 | 19% | 1–3 (25%) | +0.2 |
| 5 | Kecoughtan High School Warriors | 2 | 2.86 school −0.16 | Morgan Handly / Megan Geith Cole Handly / Laura Rhodes 1.52 Sam Brady / Ryan Nguyen 1.32 | 36% | 1–3 (25%) | −0.5 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christchurch School | 8.31 | 11.31 | 8–0 | 7.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.2 | 39% |
| 4 | Maury High School | 1.98 | 2.52 | 1–3 | 0.8 | +0.54 | 0.1 | 60% |
| 5 | Kecoughtan High School | 2.86 | 1.83 | 1–3 | 1.5 | −1.03 | 0.3 | 90% |
| 2 | Norfolk Collegiate School | 6.44 | 5.08 | 2–6 | 2.7 | −1.36 | 0.5 | 95% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Rogers | Maury High School | 0.43 | 0.97 | 1–3 | 0.8 | +0.54 | 0.1 | 60% |
| Tyler Cason | Maury High School | 0.46 | 1.00 | 1–3 | 0.8 | +0.54 | 0.1 | 60% |
| Cole Handly | Kecoughtan High School | 1.52 | 0.49 | 1–3 | 1.5 | −1.03 | 0.3 | 90% |
| Sam Brady | Kecoughtan High School | 1.32 | 0.29 | 1–3 | 1.5 | −1.03 | 0.3 | 90% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Commodores | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 2-3-6 |
| 3 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Saints | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Warriors | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 1-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Saints | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Warriors | 2-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Commodores | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Saints | 2-3-6 |
| 11 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses | Benton Amthor '19 Boyd Bragg '19 Duke Cowart '19 John Vail '20 Nathan Smith '20 |
Anna Flynn '20 Clare Elden Gaule '21 Louie Lafevre '17 |
|
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | Chris Robertson '19 Ellie Maus '18 Parker Purrington '19 Sarah Smith '18 |
Sam Beck '21 Matt Wright '19 Jon Krueger '20 Jenks Britt '20 |
|
Maury High School | Commodores | Jalen Rogers '19 Paul Trudell '22 Tyler Cason '18 |
Sophia Bibbo '20 Emily Palmer '18 Kate Weaver '18 |
|
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | Cole Handly '19 Morgan Handly '21 Sam Brady '19 |
Laura Rhodes '20 Megan Geith '20 Ryan Nguyen '20 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
