Cape and Islands Girl's Champs

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Dartmouth High School Dartmouth High School Indians 11 11
2 Falmouth High School, MA Falmouth High School, MA Clippers 28 28
3 Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 28 28
4 Sturgis Charter Public School Sturgis Charter Public School Varsity 28 28
5 Bishop Stang High Bishop Stang High Spartans 41 41
6 Nantucket High School Nantucket High School Nantucket Whalers 42 42
7 Sharks Sharks Sharks 54 54
8 Varsity Varsity Varsity 56 56
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Dartmouth High School Dartmouth High School Indians 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 2 11 Gracie Woodcock '19
Sadie Thomas '19
Falmouth High School, MA Falmouth High School, MA Clippers 2 5 6 2 2 3 2 6 28 Ava Warner '20 [1-8]
Maia Armitage '20 [1-2]
Courtney Frangioso '20 [3]
Shu-Tong Murray '20 [4]
Julianna Dvorak '22 [5]
Ella Warner '22 [6]
Zhana Yakabova '21 [7]
Amaqui Sanchez-Warner '22 [8]
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 3 6 1 3 3 6 5 1 28 Abigail Hammerlund '20
Ashtyn Watts '21
Sturgis Charter Public School Sturgis Charter Public School Varsity 4 2 2 5 4 2 6 3 28 Alexis O'Neil '20
Ella Strano '20
Bishop Stang High Bishop Stang High Spartans 6 3 5 4 6 7 3 7 41 Savannah Kofton '22
Simone Johnson '20
Nantucket High School Nantucket High School Nantucket Whalers 5 4 4 8 5 4 4 8 42 Abby Taaffe '99
Caroline Richards '99
Sharks Sharks Sharks 7 8 8 6 8 5 8 4 54
Varsity Varsity Varsity 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 5 56
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Bishop Stang HighBishop Stang High Spartans11111111
Dartmouth High SchoolDartmouth High School Indians22222222
Falmouth High School, MAFalmouth High School, MA Clippers33333333
Marthas Vineyard RHSMarthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders44444444
SharksSharks Sharks55555555
Nantucket High SchoolNantucket High School Nantucket Whalers66666666
VarsityVarsity Varsity77777777
Sturgis Charter Public SchoolSturgis Charter Public School Varsity88888888

Conditions — 05/17/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 78%  ·  Pressure 1009.1 hPa

Temperature

59°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.5 kn
avg  ·  max 15.7 kn
Gusts to 29.0 kn
From SW (216°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover92% Sunshine7.5 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1009.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Falmouth , MA: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.78 ± 0.44)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Falmouth , MA by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Falmouth , MA: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →