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NJISA Raritan Tuesday Series 5-06-19

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 11 11
2 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 12 12
3 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 14 14
4 Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 1 20 20
5 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 21 21
6 Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 2 22 22
7 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 31 31
8 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 34 34
9 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 37 37
10 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 38 38
11 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 43 43
12 Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 3 44 44
13 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 51 51
14 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 2 56 56
15 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 3 56 56
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 4 5 1 1 11 Sean Groskoph '20 [1-4]
Malcolm Harrison '19 [1-2]
Jack Greengrass '22 [3-4]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 3 1 6 2 12 Sophie Lusty '20
Mia Chmelar '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 2 3 4 5 14 Quinn Collins '21
Ben Sampson '20
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 1 8 2 3 7 20 Mary Moriarty '19
No Show
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 1 8 8 4 21 Jack Quinn '20
Michael Ahern '21
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 2 13 4 2 3 22 No Show
No Show
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 7 10 5 9 31 Thomas Marino '21
Amanda Williams '21
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 10 7 7 10 34 Ryan Mcwalters '21
Royce Ankel '21
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 5 12 12 8 37 Katie Penque '22
Sarah Kane '22
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 11 6 10 11 38 Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [1-4]
Jake Simonetti '21 [1-2]
No Show [3-4]
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 6 9 DNS 12 43 Kevin Tang '19
Hector Rodriguez '20
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 3 14 13 11 6 44 No Show
No Show
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 12 14 9 DNS 51 Carson Lubrano '20 [1-4]
Jared Simonetti '21 [1-2]
Zoe Papier '19 [3-4]
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 2 9 15 DNS DNS 56 No Show
No Show
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 3 DNS 11 13 DNS 56 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (30 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 14444
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 25555
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 38888
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 418181818
Oak Knoll SchoolOak Knoll School Royals 112121212
Oak Knoll SchoolOak Knoll School Royals 215151515
Oak Knoll SchoolOak Knoll School Royals 318181818
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers 12222
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers 25555
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers 38888
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 110101010
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 213131313
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 314141414
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 416161616
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 517171717
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 Thomas Marino '21 Amanda Williams '21
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 Carson Lubrano '20 [1-4] Jared Simonetti '21 [1-2]
Zoe Papier '19 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [1-4] Jake Simonetti '21 [1-2]
No Show [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 Ryan Mcwalters '21 Royce Ankel '21
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 1 Mary Moriarty '19 No Show
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 2 No Show No Show
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 3 No Show No Show
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 1 Kevin Tang '19 Hector Rodriguez '20
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 2 No Show No Show
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 3 No Show No Show
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 Quinn Collins '21 Ben Sampson '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 Sean Groskoph '20 [1-4] Malcolm Harrison '19 [1-2]
Jack Greengrass '22 [3-4]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 Sophie Lusty '20 Mia Chmelar '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 Jack Quinn '20 Michael Ahern '21
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 Katie Penque '22 Sarah Kane '22

Conditions — 05/07/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1020.6 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 52°F
Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 6.6 kn
Gusts to 23.3 kn
From SW (214°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover62% Sunshine9.7 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1020.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Summit: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.02 ± 0.27)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →