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NJISA Raritan Tuesday Series 4-25-19

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 8 8
2 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 10 10
3 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 12 12
4 Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 2 17 17
5 Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 1 18 18
6 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 22 22
7 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 26 26
8 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 35 35
9 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 39 39
10 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 40 40
11 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 44 44
12 Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 3 49 49
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 2 1 2 3 8 Sophie Lusty '20 [1-4]
Mia Chmelar '19 [1-2]
Lilly Shanker '22 [3-4]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 4 3 1 2 10 Hannah Mercurio '20
Katie Penque '22
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 3 2 3 4 12 Sean Groskoph '20
Malcolm Harrison '19
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 2 5 6 5 1 17 Caroline Maher '21 [1-2]
Celia Peri '20 [3-4]
Celia Peri '20 [1-2]
Caroline Maher '21 [3-4]
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 1 1 4 7 6 18 Anna Schwartz '20
No Show
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 6 5 4 7 22 Patrick Murray '19 [1-4]
Sarah Kane '22 [1-2]
Jack Greengrass '22 [3-4]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 7 8 6 5 26 Jack Quinn '20 [1-4]
Michael Ahern '21 [1-2]
Ben Sampson '20 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 10 7 8 10 35 No Show
No Show
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 8 10 DNS 8 39 No Show
No Show
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 9 9 DNS 9 40 No Show
No Show
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 DNS 11 9 11 44 No Show
No Show
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 3 DNS DNS 10 DNS 49 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 15555
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 28888
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 315151515
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 418181818
Oak Knoll SchoolOak Knoll School Royals 112121212
Oak Knoll SchoolOak Knoll School Royals 215151515
Oak Knoll SchoolOak Knoll School Royals 37777
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 110101010
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 211111111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 313131313
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 414141414
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 516161616
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 No Show No Show
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 No Show No Show
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 No Show No Show
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 No Show No Show
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 1 Anna Schwartz '20 No Show
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 2 Caroline Maher '21 [1-2]
Celia Peri '20 [3-4]		 Celia Peri '20 [1-2]
Caroline Maher '21 [3-4]
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 3 No Show No Show
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 Hannah Mercurio '20 Katie Penque '22
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 Sophie Lusty '20 [1-4] Mia Chmelar '19 [1-2]
Lilly Shanker '22 [3-4]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 Sean Groskoph '20 Malcolm Harrison '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 Patrick Murray '19 [1-4] Sarah Kane '22 [1-2]
Jack Greengrass '22 [3-4]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 Jack Quinn '20 [1-4] Michael Ahern '21 [1-2]
Ben Sampson '20 [3-4]

Conditions — 04/25/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 61%  ·  Pressure 1014.1 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.2 kn
avg  ·  max 5.7 kn
Gusts to 16.3 kn
From SSE (152°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover87% Sunshine8.5 hrs Humidity61% Pressure1014.1 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 9 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Summit: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.52 ± 0.43)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →