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NJISA Raritan Tuesday Series 4-30-19

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 8 8
2 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 16 16
3 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 19 19
4 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 28 28
5 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 29 29
6 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 30 30
7 Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 2 33 33
8 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 37 37
9 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 45 45
10 Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 46 46
11 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 57 57
12 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 59 59
13 Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 1 65 65
14 Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 3 70 70
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 1 1 3 2 1 8 Sean Groskoph '20
Malcolm Harrison '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 3 6 2 1 4 16 Patrick Murray '19
Jack Greengrass '22
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 2 4 1 6 6 19 Hannah Mercurio '20
Katie Penque '22
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 6 5 4 3 10 28 Sophie Lusty '20
Lilly Shanker '22
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 8 7 5 7 2 29 Luke Duplessis '20 [1-5]
Henry Gallagher '20 [1-2]
Jonathan Field '22 [3-5]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 4 3 8 8 7 30 Evan Hybl '19
Mia Chmelar '19
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 2 9 2 12 5 5 33 Caroline Maher '21 [1-5]
Anna Schwartz '20 [1-2]
Celia Peri '20 [3-5]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 12 12 6 4 3 37 Jack Quinn '20 [1-5]
Michael Ahern '21 [1-2]
Ben Sampson '20 [3-5]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 5 8 DNS 9 8 45 Carson Lubrano '20 [1-5]
Royce Ankel '21 [1-2]
Christine Purschke '21 [3-5]
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers 7 11 9 10 9 46 Hector Rodriguez '20
No Show
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 11 9 7 DNS DNS 57 Paige Lubrano '22
Zoe Papier '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 13 13 11 11 11 59 Ciara Doherty '21 [1-5]
Amanda Williams '21 [1-2]
Katie Caviness '21 [3-5]
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 1 10 10 DNS DNS DNS 65 Caroline Maher '21
Anna Schwartz '20
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 3 DNS DNS 10 DNS DNS 70 Caroline Maher '21
Anna Schwartz '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (28 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 144444
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 255555
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 388888
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 41818181818
Oak Knoll SchoolOak Knoll School Royals 177777
Oak Knoll SchoolOak Knoll School Royals 21515151515
Oak Knoll SchoolOak Knoll School Royals 31818181818
Perth Amboy High SchoolPerth Amboy High School Panthers22222
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 199999
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 21010101010
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 31212121212
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 41313131313
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 51414141414
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 61616161616
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 Paige Lubrano '22 Zoe Papier '19
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 Luke Duplessis '20 [1-5] Henry Gallagher '20 [1-2]
Jonathan Field '22 [3-5]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 Ciara Doherty '21 [1-5] Amanda Williams '21 [1-2]
Katie Caviness '21 [3-5]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 Carson Lubrano '20 [1-5] Royce Ankel '21 [1-2]
Christine Purschke '21 [3-5]
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 1 Caroline Maher '21 Anna Schwartz '20
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 2 Caroline Maher '21 [1-5] Anna Schwartz '20 [1-2]
Celia Peri '20 [3-5]
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 3 Caroline Maher '21 Anna Schwartz '20
Perth Amboy High School Perth Amboy High School Panthers Hector Rodriguez '20 No Show
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 Evan Hybl '19 Mia Chmelar '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 Hannah Mercurio '20 Katie Penque '22
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 Patrick Murray '19 Jack Greengrass '22
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 Sean Groskoph '20 Malcolm Harrison '19
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 5 Sophie Lusty '20 Lilly Shanker '22
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 6 Jack Quinn '20 [1-5] Michael Ahern '21 [1-2]
Ben Sampson '20 [3-5]

Conditions — 04/30/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 73%  ·  Pressure 1022.9 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 7.9 kn
Gusts to 19.2 kn
From WNW (299°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover90% Sunshine3.5 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1022.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Summit: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.22 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →