NYISA-NW All Girls Regatta 2019

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 1 9 9
2 Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 1 24 24
3 Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 2 29 29
4 Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 2 31 31
5 Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 2 36 36
6 Williamsville North Williamsville North Spartans 40 40
7 Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 1 40 40
8 Brighton High School Brighton High School Bauins 46 46
9 Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 3 60 60
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 9 Grace Cannon '19
Madeline Love '19
Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 1 4 1 6 2 2 8 1 24 Olivia Callon '20
Sierra Bornheim '20
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 2 6 9 2 3 3 3 3 29 Julia Beck '20
Olivia Tedesco '22
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 2 3 4 4 6 7 2 5 31 Grace Colpoys '20
Clementine Matzky '21
Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 2 2 5 3 7 8 4 7 36 Lena Fine '21
Veronica Petti '21
Williamsville North Williamsville North Spartans 5 8 8 5 5 5 4 40 Sydney Kelsch '22
No Show
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 1 7 6 7 4 4 6 6 40 Emily Davis '19
Bridget Taylor '20
Brighton High School Brighton High School Bauins 8 3 5 9 6 7 8 46 Hannah Broshears '22
Angelina Guilfoyle '24
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 3 9 7 9 8 9 9 9 60 Anna Schinsing '21
Jasmine Nichols '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Brighton High SchoolBrighton High School Bauins9999999
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 14444444
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 26666666
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs 13333333
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs 28888888
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs 32222222
Pittsford High SchoolPittsford High School Knights 11111111
Pittsford High SchoolPittsford High School Knights 27777777
Williamsville NorthWilliamsville North Spartans5555555
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Brighton High School Brighton High School Bauins Hannah Broshears '22 Angelina Guilfoyle '24
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 1 Grace Cannon '19 Madeline Love '19
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 2 Julia Beck '20 Olivia Tedesco '22
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 1 Emily Davis '19 Bridget Taylor '20
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 2 Grace Colpoys '20 Clementine Matzky '21
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 3 Anna Schinsing '21 Jasmine Nichols '21
Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 1 Olivia Callon '20 Sierra Bornheim '20
Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 2 Lena Fine '21 Veronica Petti '21
Williamsville North Williamsville North Spartans Sydney Kelsch '22 No Show

Conditions — 04/28/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 68%  ·  Pressure 1020.0 hPa

Temperature

43°F
↑ 47°F   ↓ 37°F
Feels like 37°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.1 kn
avg  ·  max 9.1 kn
Gusts to 23.7 kn
From N (7°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover39% Sunshine8.0 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1020.0 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Mercy: a favourites’ day (+0.07)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.19 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Mercy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Mercy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →