Navigate

Raritan Bay Spring Invitational Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 10 7 17
2 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 14 13 27
3 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 14 14 28
4 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 32 18 50
5 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 26 32 58
6 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 34 28 62
7 Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 32 33 65
8 Panthers Panthers Panthers 27 40 67
9 Royals Royals Royals 36 40 76
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 1 2 2 4 1 10 Michael Pinto '19
Patrick York '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 3 4 3 1 3 14 Sophie Lusty '20
Ben Sampson '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 4 1 4 3 2 14 Sean Groskoph '20
Jack Greengrass '22
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 2 6 8 2 8 26 Thomas Marino '21 [1-5]
Royce Ankel '21 [1-2, 5]
Jake Simonetti '21 [3-4]
Panthers Panthers Panthers 7 9 1 6 4 27
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 5 5 9 7 6 32 Patrick Cashin '20
John Ruane '21
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 8 8 6 5 5 32 Sophie Harrington '22
Owen G '22
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 9 3 7 8 7 34 Luke Duplessis '20
Zoe Papier '19
Royals Royals Royals 6 7 5 9 9 36
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 3 1 1 1 1 7 Zachary York '20
Chase Davis '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 4 2 2 3 2 13 Patrick Murray '19 [1-5]
Jack Quinn '20 [1-2, 5]
Michael Ahern '21 [3-4]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 1 3 3 4 3 14 Hannah Mercurio '20
Katie Penque '22
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 5 4 2 5 18 Matthew Bell '20
Aedan Moran '20
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 6 4 6 6 6 28 Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [1-5]
Henry Gallagher '20 [1-2, 5]
Katie Caviness '21 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 7 7 5 5 8 32 Ryan Mcwalters '21 [1-5]
Jared Simonetti '21 [1-2, 5]
Jonathan Field '22 [3-4]
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 5 6 8 7 7 33 Ian Wurch '21
Chris Payne '20
Royals Royals Royals 8 8 7 8 9 40
Panthers Panthers Panthers 9 9 9 9 4 40
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.200+0.20
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 1779911
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 288101012
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts99111113
RoyalsRoyals Royals1010121214
PanthersPanthers Panthers1111131315
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs1212141416
St. Augustine Prep SchoolSt. Augustine Prep School Hermits131315157
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 1141416168
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 21515779

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 188101012
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 299111113
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts1010121214
RoyalsRoyals Royals1111131315
PanthersPanthers Panthers1212141416
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs131315157
St. Augustine Prep SchoolSt. Augustine Prep School Hermits141416168
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 11515779
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 216168810
School / Team SkipperCrew
Chatham High School Chatham High School Luke Duplessis '20 Zoe Papier '19
Cougars 1 Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [1-5] Henry Gallagher '20 [1-2, 5]
Katie Caviness '21 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Thomas Marino '21 [1-5] Royce Ankel '21 [1-2, 5]
Jake Simonetti '21 [3-4]
Cougars 2 Ryan Mcwalters '21 [1-5] Jared Simonetti '21 [1-2, 5]
Jonathan Field '22 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Patrick Cashin '20 John Ruane '21
Colts Matthew Bell '20 Aedan Moran '20
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Sophie Harrington '22 Owen G '22
Bulldogs Ian Wurch '21 Chris Payne '20
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Michael Pinto '19 Patrick York '20
Hermits Zachary York '20 Chase Davis '20
Summit High School Summit High School Sean Groskoph '20 Jack Greengrass '22
Hilltoppers 1 Patrick Murray '19 [1-5] Jack Quinn '20 [1-2, 5]
Michael Ahern '21 [3-4]
Summit High School Summit High School Sophie Lusty '20 Ben Sampson '20
Hilltoppers 2 Hannah Mercurio '20 Katie Penque '22

Conditions — 05/11/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1016.8 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.0 kn
avg  ·  max 7.4 kn
Gusts to 19.6 kn
From NNW (338°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover61% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1016.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Summit at Raritan Bay: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.38 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit at Raritan Bay by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Summit at Raritan Bay: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →