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NJISA Raritan Tuesday Series 3-19-19

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 8 8
2 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 13 13
3 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 20 20
4 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 21 21
5 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 21 21
6 Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 2 21 21
7 Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 22 22
8 Panthers 2 Panthers 2 Panthers 2 27 27
9 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 31 31
10 Panthers 4 Panthers 4 Panthers 4 42 42
11 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 46 46
12 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 46 46
13 Panthers 1 Panthers 1 Panthers 1 52 52
14 Panthers 3 Panthers 3 Panthers 3 57 57
15 Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 1 63 63
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 3 3 1 1 8 Hannah Mercurio '20 [1-4]
Mia Chmelar '19 [1, 4]
Katie Penque '22 [2-3]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 4 2 3 4 13 Sean Groskoph '20 [1-4]
Luke Browne '20 [1, 4]
Michael Ahern '21 [2-3]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 6 7 5 2 20 Thomas Marino '21 [1-4]
Royce Ankel '21 [1-3]
Hannah Conti '21 [4]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 1 9 2 9 21 Sophie Lusty '20 [1-4]
Liz Colao '19 [1, 4]
Lilly Shanker '22 [2-3]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 7 5 4 5 21 Luke Duplessis '20 [1-4]
Zoe Papier '19 [1-3]
Amanda Williams '21 [4]
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 2 8 4 6 3 21 Caroline Maher '21
Anna Schwartz '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 2 6 7 7 22 Evan Hybl '19
Ben Sampson '20
Panthers 2 Panthers 2 Panthers 2 9 1 9 8 27
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 5 8 8 10 31 Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [1-4]
Henry Gallagher '20 [1, 4]
Oona Boyle '22 [2-3]
Panthers 4 Panthers 4 Panthers 4 11 13 12 6 42
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 12 12 10 12 46 Ciara Doherty '21 [1-4]
Hannah Conti '21 [1]
Jake Simonetti '21 [2-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 13 11 11 11 46 Carson Lubrano '20 [1-4]
Amanda Williams '21 [1]
Jared Simonetti '21 [2-4]
Panthers 1 Panthers 1 Panthers 1 10 10 DNS DNS 52
Panthers 3 Panthers 3 Panthers 3 14 14 13 DNS 57
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 1 15 DNF DNS DNS 63 Caroline Maher '21
Mary Moriarty '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (30 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 14444
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 28888
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 315151515
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 418181818
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars 519191919
Oak Knoll SchoolOak Knoll School Royals 114141414
Oak Knoll SchoolOak Knoll School Royals 215151515
Panthers 1Panthers 1 Panthers 11111
Panthers 2Panthers 2 Panthers 22222
Panthers 3Panthers 3 Panthers 33333
Panthers 4Panthers 4 Panthers 46666
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 110101010
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 211111111
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 313131313
Summit High SchoolSummit High School Hilltoppers 417171717
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 1 Carson Lubrano '20 [1-4] Amanda Williams '21 [1]
Jared Simonetti '21 [2-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 2 Ciara Doherty '21 [1-4] Hannah Conti '21 [1]
Jake Simonetti '21 [2-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 3 Luke Duplessis '20 [1-4] Zoe Papier '19 [1-3]
Amanda Williams '21 [4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 4 Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [1-4] Henry Gallagher '20 [1, 4]
Oona Boyle '22 [2-3]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 5 Thomas Marino '21 [1-4] Royce Ankel '21 [1-3]
Hannah Conti '21 [4]
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 1 Caroline Maher '21 Mary Moriarty '19
Oak Knoll School Oak Knoll School Royals 2 Caroline Maher '21 Anna Schwartz '20
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 1 Hannah Mercurio '20 [1-4] Mia Chmelar '19 [1, 4]
Katie Penque '22 [2-3]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 2 Sophie Lusty '20 [1-4] Liz Colao '19 [1, 4]
Lilly Shanker '22 [2-3]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 3 Sean Groskoph '20 [1-4] Luke Browne '20 [1, 4]
Michael Ahern '21 [2-3]
Summit High School Summit High School Hilltoppers 4 Evan Hybl '19 Ben Sampson '20

Conditions — 03/19/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 43%  ·  Pressure 1029.9 hPa

Temperature

42°F
↑ 46°F   ↓ 30°F
Feels like 35°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.3 kn
avg  ·  max 7.0 kn
Gusts to 16.9 kn
From W (279°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover58% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity43% Pressure1029.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Summit: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.22 ± 0.28)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Summit by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Summit).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →