Southpoints #6 JV ONLY

HostSarasota Sailing Squadron
Date03/02/2019
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	27	35	62
2	Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	43	31	74
3	H. B. Plant High School	Panthers	35	42	77
4	Fort Myers High School	Green Wave 1	39	39	78
5	Dunedin High School	Shred City Residents	55	32	87
6	Riverview High School	JV	46	51	97
7	South Lake High School	JV	49	51	100
8	Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	48	73	121
9	Fort Myers High School	Green Wave 2	23	99	122
10	Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	67	55	122
11	Sarasota High School	Sailors	76	47	123
12	Pine View School	Pine View JV	63	63	126
13	Gulf Coast High School	JV	94	56	150
14	South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	83	84	167
15	St. Stephen's Episcopal School	JV	106	100	206

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Fort Myers High School	Green Wave 2	4	2	2	2	5	6	2	23	Caroline Cicotte '21 Carson Maschmeier '21
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	2	1	7	5	8	1	3	27	No Show No Show
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers	1	5	6	13	4	2	4	35	Reid Nelson '23 Patrick Parker '21
Fort Myers High School	Green Wave 1	3	9	8	1	1	5	12	39	Tucker Lowe '22 Zachary Syska '22
Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	DNS	3	4	4	3	8	5	43	Coby Flannery '21 Cesar Yudin '20
Riverview High School	JV	5	6	9	DSQ	2	7	1	46	Aden Anderson '21 Hannah Yates '21
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	10	7	1	7	11	4	8	48	Liam De Araujo '21 [1-2, 5-6] Eva Gonzalez '22 [3-4, 7] Felipe Clavijo '21 [1-2, 5-6]
South Lake High School	JV	6	4	5	3	10	12	9	49	No Show No Show
Dunedin High School	Shred City Residents	8	8	11	11	7	3	7	55	Jack Parker '19 Caitlyn Pagano '22
Pine View School	Pine View JV	11	13	10	8	6	9	6	63	Dylan Lopez '27 Alexander Vafeas '22
Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	9	12	3	12	9	11	11	67	Liz Cloninger '22 Alexander Checetto '22
Sarasota High School	Sailors	7	10	14	6	13	13	13	76	Luke King '21 Ashton Graber '22
South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	12	DNF	13	10	12	10	10	83	Kenan Walsh '20 [1-4, 7] Zuzanna Barska '22 [5-6] Siena Pollis '22 [1-4, 7]
Gulf Coast High School	JV	14	11	12	9	DNS	DNS	DNS	94	Patrick Igoe '22 Jaedyn Procacci '20
St. Stephen's Episcopal School	JV	13	14	15	DNF	DNF	DNS	DNF	106	No Show No Show

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	7	2	3	5	7	3	4	31	No Show Drew Coletti '23
Dunedin High School	Shred City Residents	4	4	7	4	2	4	7	32	Kyle Funderburk '20 Niah Ford '22
Shorecrest Preparatory School	Chargers	1	1	1	3	10	10	9	35	No Show No Show
Fort Myers High School	Green Wave 1	12	8	4	2	9	1	3	39	Ryan Terski '22 Morgan Gahan '22
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers	9	3	9	9	4	6	2	42	Kaden Nyilas '22 Alexandra Crow '22
Sarasota High School	Sailors	2	7	6	8	3	11	10	47	Avery Florio '22 Kailin Foster '20
Riverview High School	JV	5	10	10	7	8	5	6	51	Gus Swencki '24 Alexander Chevalley '22
South Lake High School	JV	8	12	11	11	6	2	1	51	No Show No Show
Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	3	5	2	10	12	12	11	55	Ayla Weisberg '22 Kendall Heyman '21
Gulf Coast High School	JV	DNF	DNF	5	1	1	9	8	56	No Show No Show
Pine View School	Pine View JV	10	13	8	6	5	8	13	63	James Hechlik '22 Sean Payne '20
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	DNF	6	DNF	12	11	7	5	73	Palmer Lykes '21 [1-2] David Dubovy '22 [3-7] Tabias Kaczka '22 [1-2]
South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	6	11	12	14	13	DNF	12	84	Yazmeen Simpson '19 Ryan Ince '21
Fort Myers High School	Green Wave 2	DNF	14	13	13	14	13	DNF	99	Madison Reynolds '20 Sydney Monahan '19
St. Stephen's Episcopal School	JV	11	9	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	100	No Show No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.100+0.10

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
Dunedin High School Shred City Residents	53	53	53	53	53	53	53
Fort Myers High School Green Wave 1	55	55	55	55	55	55	55
Fort Myers High School Green Wave 2	56	56	56	56	56	56	56
Gulf Coast High School JV	57	57	57	57	57	57	57
Jensen Beach High School Falcons	60	60	60	60	60	60	60
Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves	62	62	62	62	62	62	62
Pine View School Pine View JV	52	52	52	52	52	52	52
H. B. Plant High School Panthers	58	58	58	58	58	58	58
Ransom Everglades School Raiders	63	63	63	63	63	63	63
Riverview High School JV	67	67	67	67	67	67	67
St. Stephen's Episcopal School JV	51	51	51	51	51	51	51
Sarasota High School Sailors	50	50	50	50	50	50	50
Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers	64	64	64	64	64	64	64
South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS	65	65	65	65	65	65	65
South Lake High School JV	61	61	61	61	61	61	61

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B
Dunedin High School Shred City Residents	53	53	53	53	53	53	53
Fort Myers High School Green Wave 1	55	55	55	55	55	55	55
Fort Myers High School Green Wave 2	56	56	56	56	56	56	56
Gulf Coast High School JV	57	57	57	57	57	57	57
Jensen Beach High School Falcons	60	60	60	60	60	60	60
Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves	62	62	62	62	62	62	62
Pine View School Pine View JV	52	52	52	52	52	52	52
H. B. Plant High School Panthers	58	58	58	58	58	58	58
Ransom Everglades School Raiders	63	63	63	63	63	63	63
Riverview High School JV	67	67	67	67	67	67	67
St. Stephen's Episcopal School JV	51	51	51	51	51	51	51
Sarasota High School Sailors	50	50	50	50	50	50	50
Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers	64	64	64	64	64	64	64
South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS	65	65	65	65	65	65	65
South Lake High School JV	61	61	61	61	61	61	61

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Dunedin High School	Jack Parker '19	Caitlyn Pagano '22
Shred City Residents	Kyle Funderburk '20	Niah Ford '22
Fort Myers High School	Tucker Lowe '22	Zachary Syska '22
Green Wave 1	Ryan Terski '22	Morgan Gahan '22
Fort Myers High School	Caroline Cicotte '21	Carson Maschmeier '21
Green Wave 2	Madison Reynolds '20	Sydney Monahan '19
Gulf Coast High School	Patrick Igoe '22	Jaedyn Procacci '20
JV	No Show	No Show
H. B. Plant High School	Reid Nelson '23	Patrick Parker '21
Panthers	Kaden Nyilas '22	Alexandra Crow '22
Jensen Beach High School	Coby Flannery '21	Cesar Yudin '20
Falcons	No Show	Drew Coletti '23
Oxbridge Academy	Liz Cloninger '22	Alexander Checetto '22
ThunderWolves	Ayla Weisberg '22	Kendall Heyman '21
Pine View School	Dylan Lopez '27	Alexander Vafeas '22
Pine View JV	James Hechlik '22	Sean Payne '20
Ransom Everglades School	Liam De Araujo '21 [1-2, 5-6] Eva Gonzalez '22 [3-4, 7]	Felipe Clavijo '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Raiders	Palmer Lykes '21 [1-2] David Dubovy '22 [3-7]	Tabias Kaczka '22 [1-2]
Riverview High School	Aden Anderson '21	Hannah Yates '21
JV	Gus Swencki '24	Alexander Chevalley '22
Sarasota High School	Luke King '21	Ashton Graber '22
Sailors	Avery Florio '22	Kailin Foster '20
Shorecrest Preparatory School	No Show	No Show
Chargers	No Show	No Show
South Fork High School	Kenan Walsh '20 [1-4, 7] Zuzanna Barska '22 [5-6]	Siena Pollis '22 [1-4, 7]
SF BULLDOGS	Yazmeen Simpson '19	Ryan Ince '21
South Lake High School	No Show	No Show
JV	No Show	No Show
St. Stephen's Episcopal School	No Show	No Show
JV	No Show	No Show

Conditions — 03/02/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 73% · Pressure 1019.7 hPa

Temperature

75°F

↑ 82°F ↓ 60°F

Feels like 80°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.8 kn

avg · max 6.5 kn

Gusts to 15.0 kn

From SSW (203°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover22% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1019.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 7 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Sarasota Sailing Squadron: a typical day (+0.02)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.15 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Sarasota Sailing Squadron by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Sarasota Sailing Squadron, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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