Wet N Cool Regatta

HostFairhope Yacht Club
Date03/30/2019
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Jackson Prep	Jackson Prep	38	13	51
2	Pirates 1	Pirates 1	31	21	52
3	SEISA 1	SEISA 1	40	36	76
4	Pirates 2	Pirates 2	43	34	77
5	Cardinals	Cardinals	39	46	85
6	Bulldogs - Varsity	Bulldogs - Varsity	39	80	119
7	SEISA 2	SEISA 2	50	80	130

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT
Pirates 1	Pirates 1	1	1	7	2	1	1	1	7	3	7	31
Jackson Prep	Jackson Prep	4	4	4	1	5	5	7	3	2	3	38
Cardinals	Cardinals	2	2	5	3	3	7	3	2	6	6	39
Bulldogs - Varsity	Bulldogs - Varsity	3	3	2	7	2	3	6	4	7	2	39
SEISA 1	SEISA 1	5	5	1	4	4	2	5	5	4	5	40
Pirates 2	Pirates 2	7	7	6	5	7	6	2	1	1	1	43
SEISA 2	SEISA 2	6	6	3	6	6	4	4	6	5	4	50

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT
Jackson Prep	Jackson Prep	2	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	13
Pirates 1	Pirates 1	1	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	21
Pirates 2	Pirates 2	3	1	4	3	4	4	3	3	5	4	34
SEISA 1	SEISA 1	4	4	3	4	5	3	4	5	2	2	36
Cardinals	Cardinals	5	5	5	5	3	5	5	4	4	5	46
Bulldogs - Varsity	Bulldogs - Varsity	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	80
SEISA 2	SEISA 2	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	80

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.220+0.22

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A
Pirates 1 Pirates 1	2	2	7	7	13	13	15	15	5	5
Pirates 2 Pirates 2	5	5	8	8	14	14	2	2	7	7
Jackson Prep Jackson Prep	7	7	13	13	15	15	5	5	8	8
Cardinals Cardinals	8	8	14	14	2	2	7	7	13	13
Bulldogs - Varsity Bulldogs - Varsity	13	13	15	15	5	5	8	8	14	14
SEISA 1 SEISA 1	14	14	2	2	7	7	13	13	15	15
SEISA 2 SEISA 2	15	15	5	5	8	8	14	14	2	2

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B
Pirates 1 Pirates 1	5	5	8	8	14	14	2	2	7	7
Pirates 2 Pirates 2	7	7	13	13	15	15	5	5	8	8
Jackson Prep Jackson Prep	8	8	14	14	2	2	7	7	13	13
Cardinals Cardinals	13	13	15	15	5	5	8	8	14	14
Bulldogs - Varsity Bulldogs - Varsity	14	14	2	2	7	7	13	13	15	15
SEISA 1 SEISA 1	15	15	5	5	8	8	14	14	2	2
SEISA 2 SEISA 2	2	2	7	7	13	13	15	15	5	5

Conditions — 03/30/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 73% · Pressure 1017.1 hPa

Temperature

70°F

↑ 72°F ↓ 64°F

Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.9 kn

avg · max 10.9 kn

Gusts to 22.7 kn

From S (173°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover72% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1017.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Fairhope Yacht Club — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Fairhope Yacht Club in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Fairhope Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Fairhope Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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