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Nor Cal 6 Gold Fleet

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Archie Williams High School Archie Williams High School Pirates 8 8
2 Archbishop Riordan Archbishop Riordan Riordan 10 10
3 Harbor High School Harbor High School Pirates 11 11
4 Pacific Collegiate School Pacific Collegiate School Varsity 19 19
5 Bishop O'Dowd High School Bishop O'Dowd High School Varsity 20 20
6 Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2 42 42
7 Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 45 45
8 Henry M. Gunn High School Henry M. Gunn High School Titans 55 55
9 Crystal Springs Uplands School Crystal Springs Uplands School Griffins 68 68
10 Miramonte High School Miramonte High School Matadors 68 68
11 Piedmont High School Piedmont High School Varsity 68 68
12 Stevenson School Stevenson School Pirates 1 68 68
13 Stevenson School Stevenson School Pirates 2 68 68
14 Stevenson School Stevenson School Pirates 3 68 68
15 Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1 68 68
16 Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 3 68 68
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Archie Williams High School Archie Williams High School Pirates 2 2 2 2 8 Elsa Simenstad '22
Ian Mendius '22
Archbishop Riordan Archbishop Riordan Riordan 1 7 1 1 10 Sophie Bucker '24
Antonio Priskich '23
Harbor High School Harbor High School Pirates 4 1 3 3 11 Jt Long '21
Kees Horn '21
Pacific Collegiate School Pacific Collegiate School Varsity 5 6 4 4 19 Tristan Bellevin '21
Amanda Turner '23
Bishop O'Dowd High School Bishop O'Dowd High School Varsity 6 3 6 5 20 Max-Emilien Kluiwstra-Descalle '21
Marin Hillyard '24
Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2 3 5 DNF DNF 42 Joshua Holzer '20
Lily Hock '20
Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech DNF DNF 5 6 45 Jemma Schroder '20
Amelia Jeffs '23
Henry M. Gunn High School Henry M. Gunn High School Titans DNF 4 DNF DNF 55 Ethan Lowenthal '20 [1-4]
Adrian Vahamaki '23 [1-2]
Jihyo Park '22 [3-4]
Crystal Springs Uplands School Crystal Springs Uplands School Griffins DNF DNF DNF DNF 68 Annabelle Brameld '23
Arianna Smith '22
Miramonte High School Miramonte High School Matadors DNF DNF DNF DNF 68 Austin Teodorovic '24
Tristan Anderle '24
Piedmont High School Piedmont High School Varsity DNF DNF DNF DNF 68 Diego Jerez '20
Nicholas Jerez '24
Stevenson School Stevenson School Pirates 1 DNF DNF DNF DNF 68 Ryan Marquess '22
Lilah Parker '22
Stevenson School Stevenson School Pirates 2 DNF DNF DNF DNF 68 Gage Bradford '20
Luc Dupreez '23
Stevenson School Stevenson School Pirates 3 DNF DNF DNF DNF 68 Schuyler Jones '21
Audrey Yip '21
Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1 DNF DNF DNF DNF 68 Aquinnah Todd '21
Jaya Wirth '24
Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 3 DNF DNF DNF DNF 68 Ian Somerville '22
Izzy Williams '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2020 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Archbishop RiordanArchbishop Riordan Riordan73737373
Bishop O'Dowd High SchoolBishop O'Dowd High School Varsity46464646
Crystal Springs Uplands SchoolCrystal Springs Uplands School Griffins1111111111111111
Design Tech High SchoolDesign Tech High School d.tech38383838
Henry M. Gunn High SchoolHenry M. Gunn High School Titans40404040
Harbor High SchoolHarbor High School Pirates106106106106
Miramonte High SchoolMiramonte High School Matadors2222222222222222
Pacific Collegiate SchoolPacific Collegiate School Varsity108108108108
Piedmont High SchoolPiedmont High School Varsity52525252
Archie Williams High SchoolArchie Williams High School Pirates60606060
Stevenson SchoolStevenson School Pirates 197979797
Stevenson SchoolStevenson School Pirates 298989898
Stevenson SchoolStevenson School Pirates 399999999
Tamalpais High SchoolTamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 180808080
Tamalpais High SchoolTamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2140140140140
Tamalpais High SchoolTamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 379797979
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Archbishop Riordan Archbishop Riordan Riordan Sophie Bucker '24 Antonio Priskich '23
Archie Williams High School Archie Williams High School Pirates Elsa Simenstad '22 Ian Mendius '22
Bishop O'Dowd High School Bishop O'Dowd High School Varsity Max-Emilien Kluiwstra-Descalle '21 Marin Hillyard '24
Crystal Springs Uplands School Crystal Springs Uplands School Griffins Annabelle Brameld '23 Arianna Smith '22
Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech Jemma Schroder '20 Amelia Jeffs '23
Harbor High School Harbor High School Pirates Jt Long '21 Kees Horn '21
Henry M. Gunn High School Henry M. Gunn High School Titans Ethan Lowenthal '20 [1-4] Adrian Vahamaki '23 [1-2]
Jihyo Park '22 [3-4]
Miramonte High School Miramonte High School Matadors Austin Teodorovic '24 Tristan Anderle '24
Pacific Collegiate School Pacific Collegiate School Varsity Tristan Bellevin '21 Amanda Turner '23
Piedmont High School Piedmont High School Varsity Diego Jerez '20 Nicholas Jerez '24
Stevenson School Stevenson School Pirates 1 Ryan Marquess '22 Lilah Parker '22
Stevenson School Stevenson School Pirates 2 Gage Bradford '20 Luc Dupreez '23
Stevenson School Stevenson School Pirates 3 Schuyler Jones '21 Audrey Yip '21
Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1 Aquinnah Todd '21 Jaya Wirth '24
Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2 Joshua Holzer '20 Lily Hock '20
Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 3 Ian Somerville '22 Izzy Williams '21

Conditions — 02/01/2020 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 92%  ·  Pressure 1025.8 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.4 kn
avg  ·  max 5.5 kn
Gusts to 12.2 kn
From NW (316°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover67% Sunshine8.5 hrs Humidity92% Pressure1025.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 7 kn · NW 19 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Design Tech: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.08
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−1.41 ± 0.57)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Design Tech by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Design Tech: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →