Nor Cal 6 Silver Fleet

HostDesign Tech
Date02/01/2020
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	23	23
2	Los Altos High	Eagles	24	24
3	Carlmont	The Scots	44	44
4	Alameda High School	Hornets 1	63	63
5	Alameda High School	Hornets 2	63	63
6	Aptos High School	Mariners	63	63
7	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	63	63
8	Cambrian Academy	Cambrian Academy	63	63
9	Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	63	63
10	Design Tech High School	d.tech 3	63	63
11	Design Tech High School	d.tech 4	63	63
12	El Cerrito High School	Varsity 1	63	63
13	El Cerrito High School	Varsity 2	63	63
14	Head Royce	Jayhawks	63	63
15	Los Gatos High School	Wildcats	63	63
16	Lowell High School - CA	Cardinals	63	63
17	Pacific Collegiate School	Varsity	63	63
18	Piedmont High School	Varsity	63	63
19	SOTA High School	SOTA	63	63
20	The Athenian School	Owls	63	63

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	TOT	Sailors
Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	DNF	1	1	23	Zoe Flemate '21 Elias Wu '23
Los Altos High	Eagles	1	DNF	2	24	Nolan Theodore '26 Deniz Ozcan '26
Carlmont	The Scots	2	DNF	DNF	44	Max Huffer '22 Nathan Freed '23
Alameda High School	Hornets 1	DNF	DNF	DNF	63	Artemis Edison '22 Kelly Benson '24
Alameda High School	Hornets 2	DNF	DNF	DNF	63	Makenan Smith '23 Miles Murphy '23
Aptos High School	Mariners	DNF	DNF	DNF	63	Julian Levash '24 Ainsley Hancock '24
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	DNF	DNF	DNF	63	Caton Woll '20 Sage Dillemuth '23
Cambrian Academy	Cambrian Academy	DNF	DNF	DNF	63
Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	DNF	DNF	DNF	63	Max Mcreynolds '23 Asher Thomas '23
Design Tech High School	d.tech 3	DNF	DNF	DNF	63	Joss Ettrick '21 Griffin Conley '21
Design Tech High School	d.tech 4	DNF	DNF	DNF	63	Kieran Elrod '21 Cynthia Shi '23
El Cerrito High School	Varsity 1	DNF	DNF	DNF	63	Konrad Crebbs '22 Phineas Fritsch '23
El Cerrito High School	Varsity 2	DNF	DNF	DNF	63	Florence Duff '21 Ula Brucker '23
Head Royce	Jayhawks	DNF	DNF	DNF	63	Artemisia Matera '21 Josephine Kovecses '21
Los Gatos High School	Wildcats	DNF	DNF	DNF	63	No Show No Show
Lowell High School - CA	Cardinals	DNF	DNF	DNF	63	Anna Novolt '22 Natalie Novolt '22
Pacific Collegiate School	Varsity	DNF	DNF	DNF	63	Spencer Koontz '24 [1-3] Malcolm Phillips '26 [1-2] Aaron Morales '23 [3]
Piedmont High School	Varsity	DNF	DNF	DNF	63	Sara Govert '22 Devon Moxley '23
SOTA High School	SOTA	DNF	DNF	DNF	63	Cal Smolenski '23 Vittoria Adams '23
The Athenian School	Owls	DNF	DNF	DNF	63	Mark Dickey '23 Julieanna Fajardo '20

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.090+0.09

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2020 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A
Alameda High School Hornets 1	48	48	48
Alameda High School Hornets 2	45	45	45
Aptos High School Mariners	101	101	101
Berkeley High School Yellowjackets	67	67	67
Cambrian Academy Cambrian Academy	2222	2222	2222
Carlmont The Scots	35	35	35
Design Tech High School d.tech 1	37	37	37
Design Tech High School d.tech 2	36	36	36
Design Tech High School d.tech 3	34	34	34
Design Tech High School d.tech 4	32	32	32
El Cerrito High School Varsity 1	63	63	63
El Cerrito High School Varsity 2	61	61	61
Head Royce Jayhawks	49	49	49
Los Altos High Eagles	33	33	33
Los Gatos High School Wildcats	3333	3333	3333
Lowell High School - CA Cardinals	72	72	72
Pacific Collegiate School Varsity	105	105	105
Piedmont High School Varsity	43	43	43
SOTA High School SOTA	71	71	71
The Athenian School Owls	55	55	55

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Alameda High School	Hornets 1	Artemis Edison '22	Kelly Benson '24
Alameda High School	Hornets 2	Makenan Smith '23	Miles Murphy '23
Aptos High School	Mariners	Julian Levash '24	Ainsley Hancock '24
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	Caton Woll '20	Sage Dillemuth '23
Carlmont	The Scots	Max Huffer '22	Nathan Freed '23
Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	Zoe Flemate '21	Elias Wu '23
Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	Max Mcreynolds '23	Asher Thomas '23
Design Tech High School	d.tech 3	Joss Ettrick '21	Griffin Conley '21
Design Tech High School	d.tech 4	Kieran Elrod '21	Cynthia Shi '23
El Cerrito High School	Varsity 1	Konrad Crebbs '22	Phineas Fritsch '23
El Cerrito High School	Varsity 2	Florence Duff '21	Ula Brucker '23
Head Royce	Jayhawks	Artemisia Matera '21	Josephine Kovecses '21
Los Altos High	Eagles	Nolan Theodore '26	Deniz Ozcan '26
Los Gatos High School	Wildcats	No Show	No Show
Lowell High School - CA	Cardinals	Anna Novolt '22	Natalie Novolt '22
Pacific Collegiate School	Varsity	Spencer Koontz '24 [1-3]	Malcolm Phillips '26 [1-2] Aaron Morales '23 [3]
Piedmont High School	Varsity	Sara Govert '22	Devon Moxley '23
SOTA High School	SOTA	Cal Smolenski '23	Vittoria Adams '23
The Athenian School	Owls	Mark Dickey '23	Julieanna Fajardo '20

Conditions — 02/01/2020 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 92% · Pressure 1025.8 hPa

Temperature

54°F

↑ 61°F ↓ 47°F

Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.4 kn

avg · max 5.5 kn

Gusts to 12.2 kn

From NW (316°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover67% Sunshine8.5 hrs Humidity92% Pressure1025.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Design Tech — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Design Tech in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Design Tech by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Design Tech: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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