South Points #4 Junior Varsity

HostRansom Everglades
Date01/11/2020
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Ransom Everglades School	Raiders 2	6	10	16
2	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders 1	13	16	29
3	Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	34	36	70
4	Gulf Coast High School	Varsity	46	25	71
5	Ransom Everglades School	Raiders 1	36	39	75
6	St. Petersburg High School	Green Devils	54	22	76
7	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders 2	34	54	88
8	Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	54	39	93
9	Dunedin High School	Developing All Stars	51	67	118
10	Eustis 1	Eustis 1	65	61	126
11	South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	85	53	138
12	Martin County High School	Tigers	39	108	147
13	Eustis 3	Eustis 3	69	80	149
14	MOA/Westwood High School	Panthers	91	86	177
15	Sarasota High School	Sailors	74	108	182
16	Eustis 2	Eustis 2	93	108	201
17	Chargers	Chargers	108	108	216

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders 2	1	1	1	1	1	1	6	Jackson Mcaliley '23 Gabriel Vianna '21
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders 1	2	2	3	2	2	2	13	Robert (Bobby) Rielly '21 [1-6] Daniel Neville '21 [1-4] Emma Asturias '20 [5-6]
Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	5	11	4	6	5	3	34	Coby Flannery '21 William Kulas '24
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders 2	6	3	7	7	4	7	34	Mary (Lucy) Meagher '23 Marianne Cook '23
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders 1	12	5	2	4	9	4	36	Gideon Shaked '22 [1-2, 5-6] Palmer Lykes '21 [3-4] Sophia Adams '23 [1-2, 5-6] Boris Bialer '22 [3-4]
Martin County High School	Tigers	3	4	6	11	6	9	39	Audrey Foley '24 Diego Cruz '23
Gulf Coast High School	Varsity	4	8	8	8	7	11	46	Carson Page '23 Josh Amendola '21
Dunedin High School	Developing All Stars	9	9	12	5	10	6	51	Jacob Armitage '20 Tony Perez '23
Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	7	7	5	12	DSQ	5	54	Will Dimaio '22 Nico Raffinengo '24
St. Petersburg High School	Green Devils	10	6	11	3	11	13	54	Logan Rimel '23 Cydney Schweinsberg '20
Eustis 1	Eustis 1	13	14	9	9	12	8	65
Eustis 3	Eustis 3	DNF	DNF	10	10	3	10	69
Sarasota High School	Sailors	11	10	13	13	13	14	74	Gabe Mirman '23 Luke King '21
South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	DNF	DNF	14	15	8	12	85	Siena Pollis '22 Daphne Dalton '24
MOA/Westwood High School	Panthers	14	12	15	14	DNF	DNF	91	Esbeydy Dumas '20 Austin Altemari '22
Eustis 2	Eustis 2	8	13	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	93
Chargers	Chargers	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	108

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders 2	1	1	5	1	1	1	10	Olivia Drulard '23 Nicolas Echarte '21
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders 1	3	3	3	3	2	2	16	Jack Redmond '22 Kelly Coyne '22
St. Petersburg High School	Green Devils	4	2	1	4	7	4	22	Bella Shakespeare '23 Hannah Marsicano '20
Gulf Coast High School	Varsity	2	5	2	6	4	6	25	Patrick Igoe '22 No Show
Jensen Beach High School	Falcons	8	7	4	2	6	9	36	Cole Degner '21 Elizabeth Wire '24
Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	5	8	9	5	9	3	39	Campbell Taylor '22 [1-6] Meave Mullen '23 [1-2, 5-6] Charlotte Sample '23 [3-4]
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders 1	7	6	7	7	5	7	39	David Dubovy '22 Aidan Murphy '21
South Fork High School	SF BULLDOGS	9	9	6	9	10	10	53	Zuzanna Barska '22 Jordan Nell '21
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders 2	6	4	DNF	DNF	3	5	54	Mary (Lucy) Meagher '23 Tye Wellnitz '22
Eustis 1	Eustis 1	DNS	11	8	8	8	8	61
Dunedin High School	Developing All Stars	11	12	10	11	11	12	67	Emma Berry '22 Caitlyn Pagano '22
Eustis 3	Eustis 3	DNF	10	11	DNF	12	11	80
MOA/Westwood High School	Panthers	10	DNF	12	10	DNF	DNF	86	John Lewenec '22 Gabriel Yrjola '22
Eustis 2	Eustis 2	DNS	DNS	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	108
Martin County High School	Tigers	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	108	No Show No Show
Sarasota High School	Sailors	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	108	Gabe Mirman '23 Luke King '21
Chargers	Chargers	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	108

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.060+0.06

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Dunedin High School Developing All Stars	60	60	60	60	60	60
Eustis 1 Eustis 1	57	57	57	57	57	57
Eustis 2 Eustis 2	58	58	58	58	58	58
Eustis 3 Eustis 3	59	59	59	59	59	59
Gulf Coast High School Varsity	50	50	50	50	50	50
Jensen Beach High School Falcons	42	42	42	42	42	42
Martin County High School Tigers	44	44	44	44	44	44
MOA/Westwood High School Panthers	45	45	45	45	45	45
Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves	51	51	51	51	51	51
Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1	40	40	40	40	40	40
Ransom Everglades School Raiders 2	41	41	41	41	41	41
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 1	54	54	54	54	54	54
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 2	55	55	55	55	55	55
Sarasota High School Sailors	53	53	53	53	53	53
Chargers Chargers	56	56	56	56	56	56
South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS	43	43	43	43	43	43
St. Petersburg High School Green Devils	52	52	52	52	52	52

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Dunedin High School Developing All Stars	60	60	60	60	60	60
Eustis 1 Eustis 1	57	57	57	57	57	57
Eustis 2 Eustis 2	58	58	58	58	58	58
Eustis 3 Eustis 3	59	59	59	59	59	59
Gulf Coast High School Varsity	50	50	50	50	50	50
Jensen Beach High School Falcons	42	42	42	42	42	42
Martin County High School Tigers	44	44	44	44	44	44
MOA/Westwood High School Panthers	45	45	45	45	45	45
Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves	51	51	51	51	51	51
Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1	40	40	40	40	40	40
Ransom Everglades School Raiders 2	41	41	41	41	41	41
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 1	54	54	54	54	54	54
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 2	55	55	55	55	55	55
Sarasota High School Sailors	53	53	53	53	53	53
Chargers Chargers	56	56	56	56	56	56
South Fork High School SF BULLDOGS	43	43	43	43	43	43
St. Petersburg High School Green Devils	52	52	52	52	52	52

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Dunedin High School	Jacob Armitage '20	Tony Perez '23
Developing All Stars	Emma Berry '22	Caitlyn Pagano '22
Gulf Coast High School	Carson Page '23	Josh Amendola '21
Varsity	Patrick Igoe '22	No Show
Jensen Beach High School	Coby Flannery '21	William Kulas '24
Falcons	Cole Degner '21	Elizabeth Wire '24
MOA/Westwood High School	Esbeydy Dumas '20	Austin Altemari '22
Panthers	John Lewenec '22	Gabriel Yrjola '22
Martin County High School	Audrey Foley '24	Diego Cruz '23
Tigers	No Show	No Show
Oxbridge Academy	Will Dimaio '22	Nico Raffinengo '24
ThunderWolves	Campbell Taylor '22 [1-6]	Meave Mullen '23 [1-2, 5-6] Charlotte Sample '23 [3-4]
Ransom Everglades School	Gideon Shaked '22 [1-2, 5-6] Palmer Lykes '21 [3-4]	Sophia Adams '23 [1-2, 5-6] Boris Bialer '22 [3-4]
Raiders 1	David Dubovy '22	Aidan Murphy '21
Ransom Everglades School	Jackson Mcaliley '23	Gabriel Vianna '21
Raiders 2	Olivia Drulard '23	Nicolas Echarte '21
Sarasota High School	Gabe Mirman '23	Luke King '21
Sailors	Gabe Mirman '23	Luke King '21
South Fork High School	Siena Pollis '22	Daphne Dalton '24
SF BULLDOGS	Zuzanna Barska '22	Jordan Nell '21
St. Petersburg High School	Logan Rimel '23	Cydney Schweinsberg '20
Green Devils	Bella Shakespeare '23	Hannah Marsicano '20
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Robert (Bobby) Rielly '21 [1-6]	Daniel Neville '21 [1-4] Emma Asturias '20 [5-6]
Raiders 1	Jack Redmond '22	Kelly Coyne '22
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Mary (Lucy) Meagher '23	Marianne Cook '23
Raiders 2	Mary (Lucy) Meagher '23	Tye Wellnitz '22

Conditions — 01/11/2020 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 76% · Pressure 1023.1 hPa

Temperature

78°F

↑ 80°F ↓ 74°F

Feels like 79°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

14.4 kn

avg · max 16.9 kn

Gusts to 30.7 kn

From SE (129°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover38% Sunshine9.6 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1023.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 17 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Ransom Everglades: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.29)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.37

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.24 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.29 means a rating gap counts about 25% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Ransom Everglades by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 14 labelled days at Ransom Everglades, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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