NYISA-NW Buffalo Spring Fling

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 12 11 23
2 Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 2 12 14 26
3 Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 1 11 23 34
4 Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 30 8 38
5 Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 2 20 37 57
6 Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 1 33 28 61
7 St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 2 35 40 75
8 St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 1 43 33 76
9 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 32 46 78
10 Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 47 36 83
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 1 1 2 2 1 5 11 Adelaide Matzky '25
Ruby Deascentiis '25
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 2 2 1 4 3 2 12 Sam Balanevsky '22
No Show
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 4 4 1 2 1 12 Brooks Turcotte '23
Abby Galati '25
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 2 3 3 3 5 6 20 Anna Flaherty '23
Anna Schinsing '21
Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 7 6 8 6 3 30 Matt Lago '23
Adam Strobridge '22
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 5 5 5 7 10 32 Madi Overbeck '21
Aly Dalton '24
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 1 8 10 7 4 4 33 Anderson Osinski '22
No Show
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 2 6 8 6 8 7 35 Keller Waldron '24
Max Naples '22
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 1 9 7 9 9 9 43 Alec Barlow '23
Ben Mazurkiewicz '24
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 10 9 10 10 8 47 Isabella Fukushima '24
Kaya Fitzpatrick '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 3 2 1 1 1 8 Emily Grevell '23
Cameron Bernabei '21
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 2 1 4 2 2 11 Cole Carlson '20
Emma Malmstrom Jouannet '25
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 2 1 3 2 5 3 14 No Show
No Show
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 1 4 6 5 4 4 23 Clementine Matzky '21
Jasmine Nichols '21
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 1 DNF 5 3 3 6 28 Rory Mcclenehan '20
Sam Balanevsky '22
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 1 6 4 6 9 8 33 Braeden Bommarahau '21
Colin Marcolini '22
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 7 7 9 8 5 36 Kennedy Sole '23
Natalie Dunlap '24
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 2 8 8 7 7 7 37 Emily Richardson '21
Grace Richardson '26
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 2 5 9 10 6 10 40 Nathan Jarosz '21
Teddy Lukowski '22
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 9 10 8 10 9 46 Heidi Swan-Leuze '24
Matt Lefler '24
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks1313131313
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders 133333
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders 21212121212
Fairport High SchoolFairport High School Red Raiders1717171717
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs 11616161616
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs 21818181818
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 122222
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 21414141414
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 11111111111
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 21010101010

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks1313131313
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders 133333
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders 21212121212
Fairport High SchoolFairport High School Red Raiders1717171717
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs 11616161616
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs 21818181818
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 122222
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 21414141414
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 11111111111
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 21010101010

Conditions — 05/02/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 78%  ·  Pressure 1007.4 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.4 kn
avg  ·  max 11.9 kn
Gusts to 29.7 kn
From SW (225°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover74% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1007.4 hPa Rain0.07 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Joseph's Collegi: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.07 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Joseph's Collegi by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at St. Joseph's Collegi, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →