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Friday Night Lights#5

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Barrington High School Barrington High School Eagles 5 5 10
2 Crusaders 1 Crusaders 1 Crusaders 1 11 10 21
3 Crusaders 2 Crusaders 2 Crusaders 2 16 23 39
4 Rogers High School Rogers High School Vikings 2 20 25 45
5 North Kingstown High School North Kingstown High School Skippers 35 19 54
6 Purple Purple Purple 26 39 65
7 Partriots Partriots Partriots 33 36 69
8 Rogers High School Rogers High School Vikings 1 37 35 72
9 Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Middletown HS 42 35 77
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Barrington High School Barrington High School Eagles 1 1 1 1 1 5 Olin Guck '22
Nate Schneider '22
Crusaders 1 Crusaders 1 Crusaders 1 2 2 3 2 2 11
Crusaders 2 Crusaders 2 Crusaders 2 5 3 2 3 3 16
Rogers High School Rogers High School Vikings 2 3 5 4 4 4 20 Parker Brown '22
Jonothan Guinan '22
Purple Purple Purple 4 4 5 5 8 26
Partriots Partriots Partriots 6 7 9 6 5 33
North Kingstown High School North Kingstown High School Skippers 7 8 6 8 6 35 Marykate Hanus '24 [1-3]
Rachel Tagen '23 [4-5]
Alexis Rohrbach '23 [1-3]
Laura Pisano '23 [4-5]
Rogers High School Rogers High School Vikings 1 9 6 8 7 7 37 Marianna May '21 [1-2]
Taylor Curry '21 [3-5]
Caitlin Mccabe '22 [1-4]
Matthew Mullins '23 [5]
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Middletown HS 8 9 7 9 9 42 Brettyn Newsome '23
Aspen Pearson '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Barrington High School Barrington High School Eagles 1 1 1 1 1 5 Brenden Jay '23 [1, 3, 5]
Christopher Chwalk '24 [2, 4]
Christopher Chwalk '24 [1, 3, 5]
Brenden Jay '23 [2, 4]
Crusaders 1 Crusaders 1 Crusaders 1 2 2 2 2 2 10
North Kingstown High School North Kingstown High School Skippers 3 5 3 4 4 19 Austin Vance '23 [1-3]
Cameron Boyd '23 [4-5]
Annika Eriksen '23 [1-3]
Brianna Sheahan '23 [4-5]
Crusaders 2 Crusaders 2 Crusaders 2 4 8 5 3 3 23
Rogers High School Rogers High School Vikings 2 5 4 4 7 5 25 Andrew Goodburn '24 [1-5]
Matthew Mullins '23 [1-3]
Alexandra Newsome '21 [4-5]
Rogers High School Rogers High School Vikings 1 7 7 6 8 7 35 Sophia Rey '22 [1-5]
Alexandra Newsome '21 [1-2]
Marianna May '21 [3-5]
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Middletown HS 9 6 8 6 6 35 Brettyn Newsome '23
Aspen Pearson '24
Partriots Partriots Partriots 6 3 7 DNS DNS 36
Purple Purple Purple 8 9 9 5 8 39
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (11 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Barrington High SchoolBarrington High School Eagles11111
PurplePurple Purple33333
North Kingstown High SchoolNorth Kingstown High School Skippers77777
PartriotsPartriots Partriots99999
Rogers High SchoolRogers High School Vikings 11111111111
Rogers High SchoolRogers High School Vikings 21313131313
Crusaders 1Crusaders 1 Crusaders 11515151515
Crusaders 2Crusaders 2 Crusaders 21717171717
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Middletown HS1919191919

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Barrington High SchoolBarrington High School Eagles22222
PurplePurple Purple44444
North Kingstown High SchoolNorth Kingstown High School Skippers88888
PartriotsPartriots Partriots1010101010
Rogers High SchoolRogers High School Vikings 11212121212
Rogers High SchoolRogers High School Vikings 21414141414
Crusaders 1Crusaders 1 Crusaders 11616161616
Crusaders 2Crusaders 2 Crusaders 21818181818
Unregistered-NESSAUnregistered-NESSA Middletown HS2020202020
School / Team SkipperCrew
Barrington High School Barrington High School Olin Guck '22 Nate Schneider '22
Eagles Brenden Jay '23 [1, 3, 5]
Christopher Chwalk '24 [2, 4]		 Christopher Chwalk '24 [1, 3, 5]
Brenden Jay '23 [2, 4]
North Kingstown High School North Kingstown High School Marykate Hanus '24 [1-3]
Rachel Tagen '23 [4-5]		 Alexis Rohrbach '23 [1-3]
Laura Pisano '23 [4-5]
Skippers Austin Vance '23 [1-3]
Cameron Boyd '23 [4-5]		 Annika Eriksen '23 [1-3]
Brianna Sheahan '23 [4-5]
Rogers High School Rogers High School Marianna May '21 [1-2]
Taylor Curry '21 [3-5]		 Caitlin Mccabe '22 [1-4]
Matthew Mullins '23 [5]
Vikings 1 Sophia Rey '22 [1-5] Alexandra Newsome '21 [1-2]
Marianna May '21 [3-5]
Rogers High School Rogers High School Parker Brown '22 Jonothan Guinan '22
Vikings 2 Andrew Goodburn '24 [1-5] Matthew Mullins '23 [1-3]
Alexandra Newsome '21 [4-5]
Unregistered-NESSA Unregistered-NESSA Brettyn Newsome '23 Aspen Pearson '24
Middletown HS Brettyn Newsome '23 Aspen Pearson '24

Conditions — 05/28/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 52%  ·  Pressure 1018.7 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 63°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.8 kn
avg  ·  max 12.6 kn
Gusts to 23.7 kn
From E (89°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover61% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1018.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Sail Newport: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.60 ± 0.28)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Sail Newport by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Sail Newport, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →