Lanier North points #4

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny 24 12 36
2 Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity 18 22 40
3 John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Hoggard 27 14 41
4 Atlanta Classical Academy Atlanta Classical Academy Cavaliers 14 32 46
5 Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Varsity 32 36 68
6 Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 41 37 78
7 Episcopal School of Jacksonville Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ 40 43 83
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Atlanta Classical Academy Atlanta Classical Academy Cavaliers 1 2 3 2 2 3 1 14 Lucy Spearman '21
Ellie Spearman '21
Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity 3 3 2 1 5 2 2 18 Benjamin Smith '22
Luke Novak '23
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny 2 1 4 7 4 1 5 24 William Weinbecker '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Davis Mclauchlin '24 [3-4]
Mary Katherine Monahan '24 [7]
Maggie Mclauchlin '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Mary Katherine Monahan '24 [3-4]
Davis Mclauchlin '24 [7]
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Hoggard 4 5 7 3 1 4 3 27 Tavia Smith '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Francis (Mac) Humphrey '22 [3-4, 7]
Jane Wright '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Varsity 5 4 1 6 3 7 6 32 No Show
No Show
Episcopal School of Jacksonville Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ 7 7 6 5 6 5 4 40 Scott Busey '23
Cohen Chesser '23
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 6 6 5 4 7 6 7 41 Alli Volk '21 [1-6]
Hayden Sidak '21 [7]
Sarina Schmoyer '23 [1-6]
Alli Volk '21 [7]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny 2 1 1 2 2 1 3 12 Bridget Monahan '22 [1-2]
Charlie Lawrence '22 [3-6]
Maggie Mclauchlin '21 [7]
Charlie Lawrence '22 [1-2, 7]
Bridget Monahan '22 [3-6]
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Hoggard 1 5 2 1 1 2 2 14 Jacob Usher '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Ben Usher '23 [3-4, 7]
Andrew Simpson '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity 3 2 4 5 3 4 1 22 Polk Baggett '22
Gavin Bahner '22
Atlanta Classical Academy Atlanta Classical Academy Cavaliers 7 6 3 4 4 3 5 32 Ben Woods '22
Ava Wurm '22
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School Varsity 5 4 6 6 5 6 4 36 No Show
No Show
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Varsity 6 3 5 3 7 7 6 37 Alessia Decamp '22 [1-4, 7]
Preston Miller '23 [5-6]
Hayden Sidak '21 [1-4, 7]
Alessia Decamp '22 [5-6]
Episcopal School of Jacksonville Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ 4 7 7 7 6 5 7 43 Tom Commander '23
Rohan Jones '24
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Atlanta Classical AcademyAtlanta Classical Academy Cavaliers2222222
Beaufort High SchoolBeaufort High School Varsity9999999
Bishop Kenny High School - FLBishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny8888888
Cape Fear AcademyCape Fear Academy CFA Varsity6666666
Episcopal School of JacksonvilleEpiscopal School of Jacksonville ESJ1111111
John T. Hoggard High SchoolJohn T. Hoggard High School Hoggard5555555
Pine Lake PrepPine Lake Prep Varsity3333333

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Atlanta Classical AcademyAtlanta Classical Academy Cavaliers2222222
Beaufort High SchoolBeaufort High School Varsity9999999
Bishop Kenny High School - FLBishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny8888888
Cape Fear AcademyCape Fear Academy CFA Varsity6666666
Episcopal School of JacksonvilleEpiscopal School of Jacksonville ESJ1111111
John T. Hoggard High SchoolJohn T. Hoggard High School Hoggard5555555
Pine Lake PrepPine Lake Prep Varsity3333333
School / Team SkipperCrew
Atlanta Classical Academy Atlanta Classical Academy Lucy Spearman '21 Ellie Spearman '21
Cavaliers Ben Woods '22 Ava Wurm '22
Beaufort High School Beaufort High School No Show No Show
Varsity No Show No Show
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny High School - FL William Weinbecker '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Davis Mclauchlin '24 [3-4]
Mary Katherine Monahan '24 [7]
Maggie Mclauchlin '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Mary Katherine Monahan '24 [3-4]
Davis Mclauchlin '24 [7]
Bishop Kenny Bridget Monahan '22 [1-2]
Charlie Lawrence '22 [3-6]
Maggie Mclauchlin '21 [7]
Charlie Lawrence '22 [1-2, 7]
Bridget Monahan '22 [3-6]
Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy Benjamin Smith '22 Luke Novak '23
CFA Varsity Polk Baggett '22 Gavin Bahner '22
Episcopal School of Jacksonville Episcopal School of Jacksonville Scott Busey '23 Cohen Chesser '23
ESJ Tom Commander '23 Rohan Jones '24
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Tavia Smith '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Francis (Mac) Humphrey '22 [3-4, 7]
Jane Wright '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Hoggard Jacob Usher '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Ben Usher '23 [3-4, 7]
Andrew Simpson '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Pine Lake Prep Pine Lake Prep Alli Volk '21 [1-6]
Hayden Sidak '21 [7]
Sarina Schmoyer '23 [1-6]
Alli Volk '21 [7]
Varsity Alessia Decamp '22 [1-4, 7]
Preston Miller '23 [5-6]
Hayden Sidak '21 [1-4, 7]
Alessia Decamp '22 [5-6]

Conditions — 04/10/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1011.6 hPa

Temperature

78°F
↑ 84°F   ↓ 68°F
Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.0 kn
avg  ·  max 13.7 kn
Gusts to 24.3 kn
From SSW (199°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1011.6 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Bishop Kenny FL: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.22 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bishop Kenny FL by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Bishop Kenny FL, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →