Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peter Barnard '23 | Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 5/5 | 3.42 | 6.40 | +2.98 | 99th → 99th | 7.5 | <1% | 1.6 / 8.0 |
| 2 | Michael Kirkman '21 | Novi | 5/5 | 2.84 | 4.96 | +2.12 | 96th → 99th | 5.1 | 1% | 2.6 / 10.7 |
| 3 | Henry Scholz '23 | Lake Forest High School Scouts 3 | 5/5 | 2.87 | 4.59 | +1.72 | 97th → 99th | 3.8 | 2% | 3.4 / 10.3 |
| 4 | Charlie Allen '24 | Arrowhead High School Warhawks 2 | 5/5 | 2.67 | 4.03 | +1.36 | 94th → 99th | 2.7 | 6% | 4.4 / 11.2 |
| 5 | Tristan Mcdonald '24 | Lake Forest High School Scouts 4 | 5/5 | 1.82 | 2.54 | +0.71 | 81st → 92nd | 0.9 | 7% | 8.4 / 15.1 |
| 6 | Christian Cushman '21 | Marquette University High School | 5/5 | 1.03 | 2.86 | +1.82 | 59th → 97th | 4.7 | 3% | 8.6 / 18.6 |
| 7 | Owen Bannasch '22 | Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI | 5/5 | 1.39 | 2.53 | +1.14 | 69th → 92nd | 2.1 | 5% | 9.2 / 17.1 |
| 8 | Deana Fedulova '24 | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 5/5 | 1.89 | 2.44 | +0.55 | 81st → 91st | 0.6 | 22% | 10.2 / 14.9 |
| 9 | Patrick Levins '22 | White Bear Lake High School Bears 2 | 5/5 | 1.33 | 2.43 | +1.10 | 67th → 91st | 2.0 | 13% | 10.6 / 17.3 |
| 10 | Leo Kumar '23 | Lake Forest High School Scouts 1 | 5/5 | 1.28 | 2.14 | +0.86 | 66th → 85th | 1.3 | 14% | 11.4 / 17.5 |
| 11 | Max Sigel '22 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 3 | 5/5 | 1.54 | 1.65 | +0.11 | 74th → 77th | 0.0 | 23% | 11.8 / 16.1 |
| 12 | Billy Vogel '22 | Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 1 | 5/5 | 1.57 | 2.12 | +0.55 | 74th → 84th | 0.6 | 25% | 12.0 / 16.0 |
| 13 | Jacob Zils '23 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 4 | 5/5 | 2.33 | 2.03 | −0.30 | 89th → 83rd | 0.2 | 49% | 12.2 / 12.8 |
| 14 | Seamus Hendrickson '21 | Orono High School Spartans 2 | 5/5 | 2.06 | 1.63 | −0.43 | 83rd → 76th | 0.4 | 59% | 14.8 / 14.0 |
| 15 | Caroline Mcclain '24 | New Trier HS Trevian 1 | 5/5 | 1.31 | 1.57 | +0.27 | 67th → 74th | 0.1 | 39% | 15.6 / 17.3 |
| 16 | Kytalin Hendrickson '22 | Orono High School Spartans 1 | 5/5 | 1.58 | 1.34 | −0.24 | 75th → 67th | 0.1 | 49% | 15.8 / 16.1 |
| 17 | Jack Callinan '23 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 5 | 5/5 | 0.97 | 1.33 | +0.36 | 57th → 67th | 0.3 | 38% | 17.2 / 18.9 |
| 18 | Cole Barre '21 | Mahtomedi | 5/5 | 1.48 | 0.82 | −0.66 | 72nd → 51st | 1.0 | 57% | 17.4 / 16.6 |
| 19 | Hank Seum '23 | Mounds Park Academy | 5/5 | 1.49 | 0.48 | −1.02 | 73rd → 36th | 2.6 | 62% | 18.2 / 16.6 |
| 20 | Tryg Van Wyk '22 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 | 5/5 | 0.68 | 0.28 | −0.39 | 45th → 30th | 0.3 | 43% | 19.4 / 20.2 |
| 21 | Marley Barrett '23 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 | 5/5 | 1.02 | 0.85 | −0.18 | 59th → 52nd | 0.1 | 59% | 19.8 / 18.5 |
| 22 | Charlie Gish '24 | Lake Forest High School Scouts 2 | 5/5 | 2.79 | 3.30 | +0.51 | 96th → 99th | 0.2 | >99% | 22.6 / 10.6 |
| 23 | Cole Schweda '23 | Arrowhead High School Warhawks 1 | 5/5 | 2.07 | 1.27 | −0.79 | 84th → 66th | 0.6 | 99% | 26.2 / 14.0 |
| 24 | Abigail Allen '21 | Walled Lake Central HS | 5/5 | 1.02u | 0.51 | −0.51 | 58th → 39th | 0.4 | 93% | 26.4 / 18.7 |
| 25 | Grant Corrion '22 | Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils 2 | 5/5 | 0.50 | 0.15 | −0.35 | 38th → 26th | 0.1 | 90% | 27.4 / 20.8 |
| 26 | Robbie Dresen '25 | White Bear Lake High School Bears 1 | 5/5 | 1.18 | -0.35 | −1.53 | 65th → 14th | 2.9 | 97% | 27.8 / 17.9 |
| 27 | Spencer Glickson '22 | Stevenson High School | 5/5 | 1.34 | 0.93 | −0.41 | 67th → 56th | 0.2 | 99% | 28.6 / 17.1 |
| 28 | Carly Kiss '21 | Pewaukee High School | 5/5 | 1.03 | 0.29 | −0.74 | 59th → 30th | 0.5 | 99% | 29.8 / 18.6 |
| 29 | Will Broseman '22 | New Trier HS Trevian 2 | 5/5 | -0.16 | -0.98 | −0.82 | 17th → 4th | 0.7 | 93% | 30.0 / 23.6 |
| 30 | Marissa Tegeder '21 | Kettle Moraine High School | 5/5 | 1.01 | -0.07 | −1.09 | 58th → 20th | 1.3 | >99% | 31.2 / 18.5 |
| 31 | Liam Hounsell '23 | Detroit Country Day School | 5/5 | 0.74 | -1.18 | −1.93 | 47th → 3rd | 4.0 | >99% | 32.2 / 20.0 |
| 32 | Karen Callahan '23 | Birmingham Public Schools | 5/5 | -0.39 | — | — | 13th → — | 3.9 | >99% | 32.6 / 24.4 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
