North Points #1

HostBishop Kenny FL/Episcopal of Jackso
Date02/06/2021
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Wando	Wando Warriors	27	10	37
2	Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny	13	27	40
3	James Island Charter High School	Varsity	24	33	57
4	John Paul II (SC)	Varsity	33	25	58
5	Hough High School	Varsity	41	19	60
6	Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	29	47	76
7	John T. Hoggard High School	Hoggard	55	25	80
8	Beaufort High School	Varsity	20	73	93
9	Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	49	48	97
10	Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ	50	53	103
11	Aquinas High School	Irish	70	47	117
12	Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	58	67	125

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny	1	1	1	1	1	8	13	William Weinbecker '21 Maggie Mclauchlin '21
Beaufort High School	Varsity	3	4	5	2	4	2	20	Clay Myers '21 Abbie Pollitzer '21
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	5	2	7	5	2	3	24	Carson Shaw '22 Camdyn Williams '21
Wando	Wando Warriors	6	9	4	4	3	1	27	Zack Carvajal '22 Carter Durst '22
Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	10	5	2	3	5	4	29	Lewis Bragg '21 Lisee Skoglund '23
John Paul II (SC)	Varsity	2	6	3	8	9	5	33	Thomas Mazzeo '22 [1-6] Neil Bunce '21 [1-2] Caroline Gilmour '22 [3-6]
Hough High School	Varsity	8	3	6	10	7	7	41	Evan West '22 [1-6] Luca Van Der Schoot '22 [1-2, 5-6] Sims Whalen '21 [3-4]
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	9	10	9	6	6	9	49	Alli Volk '21 Sarina Schmoyer '23
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ	7	7	8	11	11	6	50	Scott Busey '23 [1-6] Cohen Chesser '23 [1-2, 5-6] No Show [3-4]
John T. Hoggard High School	Hoggard	4	DNS	11	9	8	10	55	Jacob Usher '21 [1-4] Francis (Mac) Humphrey '22 [5-6] Andrew Simpson '23 [1-4]
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	12	8	10	7	10	11	58	Tyler Bland '21 [1-6] Ryan Pannenbacker '22 [1-2] Caroline Mautner '24 [3-6]
Aquinas High School	Irish	11	11	12	12	12	12	70	Alex Bagnoni '23 Diego Pryor '24

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Wando	Wando Warriors	1	2	3	1	1	2	10	William Hussey '22 Michael Douglas '21
Hough High School	Varsity	5	4	1	4	4	1	19	John Polek '22 Holladay Crook '22
John T. Hoggard High School	Hoggard	3	5	4	3	5	5	25	Tavia Smith '23 [1-6] Jamie Keener '22 [1-4] Jane Wright '24 [5-6]
John Paul II (SC)	Varsity	6	3	5	2	2	7	25	Neil Bunce '21 Andrew Todesco '22
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny	2	1	2	6	RAF	3	27	Mary Katherine Monahan '24 [1-4] Bridget Monahan '22 [5-6] Charlie Lawrence '22 [1-4] Tia Schoening '22 [5-6]
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	4	8	6	5	6	4	33	Mason Baird '22 [1-2, 5-6] Jack Mckenzie '22 [3-4] Owen Mckenzie '23 [1-2, 5-6] Cari Staples '21 [3-4]
Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	7	10	8	8	8	6	47	Graham Cosby '22 Fordham Smith '23
Aquinas High School	Irish	8	7	10	10	3	9	47	Reid Poteet '23 Emily Sternkopf '24
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	11	6	7	7	9	8	48	Zach Scallan '24 [1-4] Preston Miller '23 [5-6] Hayden Sidak '21 [1-4]
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ	9	9	9	9	7	10	53	Julian Galpin '23 [1-2, 5-6] Rohan Jones '24 [3-4] Rohan Jones '24 [1-2, 5-6] Wyatt Hartigan '24 [3-4]
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	12	12	11	11	10	11	67	Ryan Pannenbacker '22 Ryan Zammit '21
Beaufort High School	Varsity	10	11	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	73	Court Martin '21 Brock Blonski '22

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.140+0.14

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Aquinas High School Irish	4	4	4	4	4	4
Beaufort High School Varsity	10	10	10	10	10	10
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny	8	8	8	8	8	8
Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ	1	1	1	1	1	1
Hough High School Varsity	12	12	12	12	12	12
James Island Charter High School Varsity	6	6	6	6	6	6
John T. Hoggard High School Hoggard	3	3	3	3	3	3
John Paul II (SC) Varsity	7	7	7	7	7	7
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	9	9	9	9	9	9
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	2	2	2	2	2	2
Porter-Gaud School Varsity	11	11	11	11	11	11
Wando Wando Warriors	5	5	5	5	5	5

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Aquinas High School Irish	4	4	4	4	4	4
Beaufort High School Varsity	10	10	10	10	10	10
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny	8	8	8	8	8	8
Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ	1	1	1	1	1	1
Hough High School Varsity	12	12	12	12	12	12
James Island Charter High School Varsity	6	6	6	6	6	6
John T. Hoggard High School Hoggard	3	3	3	3	3	3
John Paul II (SC) Varsity	7	7	7	7	7	7
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	9	9	9	9	9	9
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	2	2	2	2	2	2
Porter-Gaud School Varsity	11	11	11	11	11	11
Wando Wando Warriors	5	5	5	5	5	5

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Aquinas High School	Alex Bagnoni '23	Diego Pryor '24
Irish	Reid Poteet '23	Emily Sternkopf '24
Beaufort High School	Clay Myers '21	Abbie Pollitzer '21
Varsity	Court Martin '21	Brock Blonski '22
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	William Weinbecker '21	Maggie Mclauchlin '21
Bishop Kenny	Mary Katherine Monahan '24 [1-4] Bridget Monahan '22 [5-6]	Charlie Lawrence '22 [1-4] Tia Schoening '22 [5-6]
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	Scott Busey '23 [1-6]	Cohen Chesser '23 [1-2, 5-6] No Show [3-4]
ESJ	Julian Galpin '23 [1-2, 5-6] Rohan Jones '24 [3-4]	Rohan Jones '24 [1-2, 5-6] Wyatt Hartigan '24 [3-4]
Hough High School	Evan West '22 [1-6]	Luca Van Der Schoot '22 [1-2, 5-6] Sims Whalen '21 [3-4]
Varsity	John Polek '22	Holladay Crook '22
James Island Charter High School	Carson Shaw '22	Camdyn Williams '21
Varsity	Mason Baird '22 [1-2, 5-6] Jack Mckenzie '22 [3-4]	Owen Mckenzie '23 [1-2, 5-6] Cari Staples '21 [3-4]
John Paul II (SC)	Thomas Mazzeo '22 [1-6]	Neil Bunce '21 [1-2] Caroline Gilmour '22 [3-6]
Varsity	Neil Bunce '21	Andrew Todesco '22
John T. Hoggard High School	Jacob Usher '21 [1-4] Francis (Mac) Humphrey '22 [5-6]	Andrew Simpson '23 [1-4]
Hoggard	Tavia Smith '23 [1-6]	Jamie Keener '22 [1-4] Jane Wright '24 [5-6]
Lake Norman High School	Tyler Bland '21 [1-6]	Ryan Pannenbacker '22 [1-2] Caroline Mautner '24 [3-6]
Wildcats	Ryan Pannenbacker '22	Ryan Zammit '21
Pine Lake Prep	Alli Volk '21	Sarina Schmoyer '23
Varsity	Zach Scallan '24 [1-4] Preston Miller '23 [5-6]	Hayden Sidak '21 [1-4]
Porter-Gaud School	Lewis Bragg '21	Lisee Skoglund '23
Varsity	Graham Cosby '22	Fordham Smith '23
Wando	Zack Carvajal '22	Carter Durst '22
Wando Warriors	William Hussey '22	Michael Douglas '21

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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North Points #1

Division A

Division B

From the notes