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NYISA-NW All Girls Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 1 23 23
2 Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 1 28 28
3 Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 2 48 48
4 Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 3 70 70
5 Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 2 76 76
6 Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 4 85 85
7 Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 2 88 88
8 Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 101 101
9 Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 1 111 111
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 1 2 1 2 1 4 1 3 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 23 Adelaide Matzky '25
Ruby Deascentiis '25
Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 1 2 3 2 3 28 Lena Fine '21
Veronica Petti '21
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 2 3 3 3 6 1 6 5 3 4 3 3 1 3 4 48 Clementine Matzky '21
Olivia Cross '22
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 3 7 8 4 8 5 3 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 2 70 Jasmine Nichols '21
Anna Schinsing '21
Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 2 5 4 6 5 7 4 7 5 2 5 7 6 5 8 76 Lilia Howland '23
Vitoria Fornataro '23
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 4 4 7 7 4 3 5 8 8 8 7 5 7 7 5 85 Anna Flaherty '23
Joelle Blankenship '23
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 2 8 5 5 3 6 8 1 4 7 6 9 9 8 9 88 Kennedy Sole '23
Natalie Dunlap '24
Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 9 6 8 9 8 7 4 9 6 9 8 5 6 7 101 Emily Grevell '23
Megan Thurley '21
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 1 6 9 9 7 9 9 9 7 9 8 6 8 9 6 111 Isabella Fukushima '24
Kaya Fitzpatrick '24
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 14444444444444
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 214141414141414141414141414
Fairport High SchoolFairport High School Red Raiders5555555555555
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs 17777777777777
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs 216161616161616161616161616
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs 313131313131313131313131313
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs 412121212121212121212121212
Pittsford High SchoolPittsford High School Knights 118181818181818181818181818
Pittsford High SchoolPittsford High School Knights 29999999999999
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 1 Isabella Fukushima '24 Kaya Fitzpatrick '24
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 2 Kennedy Sole '23 Natalie Dunlap '24
Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders Emily Grevell '23 Megan Thurley '21
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 1 Adelaide Matzky '25 Ruby Deascentiis '25
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 2 Clementine Matzky '21 Olivia Cross '22
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 3 Jasmine Nichols '21 Anna Schinsing '21
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 4 Anna Flaherty '23 Joelle Blankenship '23
Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 1 Lena Fine '21 Veronica Petti '21
Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 2 Lilia Howland '23 Vitoria Fornataro '23

Conditions — 05/01/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 49%  ·  Pressure 1016.3 hPa

Temperature

51°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 39°F
Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.7 kn
avg  ·  max 6.9 kn
Gusts to 15.4 kn
From W (273°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover26% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity49% Pressure1016.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Mercy: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.56 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Mercy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Mercy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →