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Olympia Spring Scrimmage Gold

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 13 13
2 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 5 16 16
3 Quakers 1 Quakers 1 Quakers 1 24 24
4 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2 33 33
5 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 3 34 34
6 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 4 35 35
7 Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 1 37 37
8 Quakers 2 Quakers 2 Quakers 2 45 45
9 Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 53 53
10 Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 2 59 59
11 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1 60 60
12 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 61 61
13 Capital High School Capital High School Cougars 76 76
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 4 1 3 2 2 1 13 Sam Bonauto '21
Peter Kelleher '22
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 5 2 2 1 3 4 4 16 Ella Hubbard '22
Sophia Hubbard '24
Quakers 1 Quakers 1 Quakers 1 3 5 4 4 3 5 24
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2 1 6 11 12 1 2 33 Conrad Miller '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Aaron Danziger '21 [3-4]
Antalya Williamson '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 3 5 8 2 7 6 6 34 Ian Connolly '21
Fiona Murphy '21
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 4 8 3 7 1 7 9 35 Hatcher Cox '21
Charlie Snyder '24
Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 1 7 4 5 6 8 7 37 Emily Smith '21 [1-6]
Taggart Messersmith '22 [1-4]
Corinne Harrison '23 [5-6]
Quakers 2 Quakers 2 Quakers 2 6 7 8 8 5 11 45
Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 9 11 10 9 11 3 53 Jaden Unruh '22
Ted Corddry '21
Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 2 10 10 9 11 9 10 59 Corinne Harrison '23 [1-6]
Adam Smith '23 [1-4]
Taggart Messersmith '22 [5-6]
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1 11 12 6 10 13 8 60 Nolan Petrin '21
Catie Harding '21
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 13 9 12 5 10 12 61 Finn Mcclure '23
Evan Glasgow '22
Capital High School Capital High School Cougars 12 13 13 13 12 13 76 Robert Bloomfield '22
Nick Heelan '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Bellarmine Preparatory SchoolBellarmine Preparatory School Lions 1828282828282
Bellarmine Preparatory SchoolBellarmine Preparatory School Lions 2838383838383
Capital High SchoolCapital High School Cougars848484848484
Charles Wright AcademyCharles Wright Academy Tarriers444444
Quakers 1Quakers 1 Quakers 1858585858585
Quakers 2Quakers 2 Quakers 2868686868686
Lincoln High School - Portland, ORLincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1555555
Lincoln High School - Portland, ORLincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2666666
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 1878787878787
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 2777777
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 3888888
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 4999999

Conditions — 04/17/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 39%  ·  Pressure 1022.3 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.2 kn
avg  ·  max 4.2 kn
Gusts to 13.2 kn
From NNE (22°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity39% Pressure1022.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Olympia: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.29 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Olympia by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Olympia, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →