Sunbury NP#3

HostRichmond Hill
Date03/06/2021
TypeDistrict Tournament
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny	17	12	29
2	James Island Charter High School	Varsity	12	34	46
3	Wando	Wando Warriors	60	23	83
4	Hough High School	Varsity	58	33	91
5	Atlanta Classical Academy	Cavaliers	41	57	98
6	John T. Hoggard High School	Hoggard	43	70	113
7	Lucy Beckham High School	Beckham Bengals one	38	75	113
8	John Paul II (SC)	Varsity	66	48	114
9	Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	76	53	129
10	Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ	64	76	140
11	Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	92	57	149
12	Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	80	90	170
13	Richmond Hill High School	Varsity	84	99	183

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	2	1	2	3	1	1	1	1	12	Carson Shaw '22 William Rawlings '22
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny	1	2	1	1	3	3	4	2	17	William Weinbecker '21 [1-8] Maggie Mclauchlin '21 [1-2, 7-8] Alex Patangan '23 [3-6]
Lucy Beckham High School	Beckham Bengals one	9	4	7	2	2	5	5	4	38	Walker Hussey '23 Addy Fisher '23
Atlanta Classical Academy	Cavaliers	5	6	6	5	4	4	2	9	41	Lucy Spearman '21 Ellie Spearman '21
John T. Hoggard High School	Hoggard	4	3	5	8	8	6	6	3	43	Ben Usher '23 Andrew Simpson '23
Hough High School	Varsity	8	11	3	4	7	2	9	DSQ	58	Sully O'Donnell '21 [1-2, 5-6] John Polek '22 [3-4, 7-8] Holladay Crook '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Wando	Wando Warriors	6	5	4	9	11	11	8	6	60	William Hussey '22 [1-6] Ian Bosse '21 [7-8] Laura Johnston '21 [1-6]
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ	7	9	12	7	5	DNS	3	7	64	Scott Busey '23 Cohen Chesser '23
John Paul II (SC)	Varsity	3	12	8	11	6	8	10	8	66	Thomas Mazzeo '22 Caroline Gilmour '22
Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	12	8	13	10	12	9	7	5	76	Manning Unger '21 [1-8] Kristen Cooper '21 [1-4] Suzanna Carleston '24 [5-8]
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	10	10	9	6	13	10	11	11	80	Alli Volk '21 [1-8] Sarina Schmoyer '23 [1-4, 7-8] Cam Fowler '23 [5-6]
Richmond Hill High School	Varsity	11	7	11	13	10	7	13	12	84	Jonah Daniels '25 [1-8] John Michael Williams '23 [1-2, 5-6] Joey Moore '23 [3-4, 7-8]
Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	13	DSQ	10	12	9	12	12	10	92	Lewis Bragg '21 [1-8] Fordham Smith '23 [1-4] Mills Egleston '24 [5-8]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	Bishop Kenny	2	1	1	1	1	1	4	1	12	Bridget Monahan '22 [1-8] Tia Schoening '22 [1-2, 7-8] Charlie Lawrence '22 [3-6]
Wando	Wando Warriors	1	10	2	2	2	3	1	2	23	Robert Silcox '21 Tyler Payzant '21
Hough High School	Varsity	4	3	4	3	3	2	10	4	33	Evan West '22 Sims Whalen '21
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	3	2	3	4	6	11	2	3	34	Mason Baird '22 [1-8] John Mckee '22 [1-4, 7-8] Cari Staples '21 [5-6]
John Paul II (SC)	Varsity	6	5	6	8	4	5	9	5	48	Neil Bunce '21 Andrew Todesco '22
Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	7	6	8	6	7	8	5	6	53	Lawton Harper '24 [1-8] Gabriel Medlin '22 [1-4] Caroline Uram '24 [5-8]
Atlanta Classical Academy	Cavaliers	8	8	10	5	5	10	3	8	57	Ben Woods '22 Ava Wurm '22
Porter-Gaud School	Varsity	9	4	5	7	8	6	8	10	57	Graham Cosby '22 Edward Thompson '22
John T. Hoggard High School	Hoggard	10	9	7	10	9	7	6	12	70	Francis (Mac) Humphrey '22 [1-8] Jane Wright '24 [1-4] Wesley Murray '24 [5-8]
Lucy Beckham High School	Beckham Bengals one	5	7	11	12	10	12	11	7	75	Toby Payzant '23 Anthony Lattanzio '23
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	ESJ	11	11	9	11	12	4	7	11	76	Julian Galpin '23 Tom Commander '23
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	RDG	12	12	DNF	11	9	12	9	90	Preston Miller '23 [1-4] Alessia Decamp '22 [5-6] Zach Scallan '24 [7-8] Cam Fowler '23 [1-2] Zach Scallan '24 [3-6] Alessia Decamp '22 [7-8]
Richmond Hill High School	Varsity	12	13	13	9	13	13	13	13	99	Anthony Moore '25 Mason Haborak '25

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.130+0.13

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (11 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Academic Magnet High School Raptors A	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Atlanta Classical Academy Cavaliers	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Hough High School Varsity	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
James Island Charter High School Varsity	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
John T. Hoggard High School Hoggard	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
John Paul II (SC) Varsity	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Lucy Beckham High School Beckham Bengals one	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Porter-Gaud School Varsity	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Richmond Hill High School Varsity	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Wando Wando Warriors	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Academic Magnet High School Raptors A	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Atlanta Classical Academy Cavaliers	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Bishop Kenny High School - FL Bishop Kenny	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Hough High School Varsity	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
James Island Charter High School Varsity	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
John T. Hoggard High School Hoggard	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
John Paul II (SC) Varsity	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Lucy Beckham High School Beckham Bengals one	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Porter-Gaud School Varsity	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Richmond Hill High School Varsity	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Wando Wando Warriors	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Academic Magnet High School	Manning Unger '21 [1-8]	Kristen Cooper '21 [1-4] Suzanna Carleston '24 [5-8]
Raptors A	Lawton Harper '24 [1-8]	Gabriel Medlin '22 [1-4] Caroline Uram '24 [5-8]
Atlanta Classical Academy	Lucy Spearman '21	Ellie Spearman '21
Cavaliers	Ben Woods '22	Ava Wurm '22
Bishop Kenny High School - FL	William Weinbecker '21 [1-8]	Maggie Mclauchlin '21 [1-2, 7-8] Alex Patangan '23 [3-6]
Bishop Kenny	Bridget Monahan '22 [1-8]	Tia Schoening '22 [1-2, 7-8] Charlie Lawrence '22 [3-6]
Episcopal School of Jacksonville	Scott Busey '23	Cohen Chesser '23
ESJ	Julian Galpin '23	Tom Commander '23
Hough High School	Sully O'Donnell '21 [1-2, 5-6] John Polek '22 [3-4, 7-8]	Holladay Crook '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Varsity	Evan West '22	Sims Whalen '21
James Island Charter High School	Carson Shaw '22	William Rawlings '22
Varsity	Mason Baird '22 [1-8]	John Mckee '22 [1-4, 7-8] Cari Staples '21 [5-6]
John Paul II (SC)	Thomas Mazzeo '22	Caroline Gilmour '22
Varsity	Neil Bunce '21	Andrew Todesco '22
John T. Hoggard High School	Ben Usher '23	Andrew Simpson '23
Hoggard	Francis (Mac) Humphrey '22 [1-8]	Jane Wright '24 [1-4] Wesley Murray '24 [5-8]
Lucy Beckham High School	Walker Hussey '23	Addy Fisher '23
Beckham Bengals one	Toby Payzant '23	Anthony Lattanzio '23
Pine Lake Prep	Alli Volk '21 [1-8]	Sarina Schmoyer '23 [1-4, 7-8] Cam Fowler '23 [5-6]
Varsity	Preston Miller '23 [1-4] Alessia Decamp '22 [5-6] Zach Scallan '24 [7-8]	Cam Fowler '23 [1-2] Zach Scallan '24 [3-6] Alessia Decamp '22 [7-8]
Porter-Gaud School	Lewis Bragg '21 [1-8]	Fordham Smith '23 [1-4] Mills Egleston '24 [5-8]
Varsity	Graham Cosby '22	Edward Thompson '22
Richmond Hill High School	Jonah Daniels '25 [1-8]	John Michael Williams '23 [1-2, 5-6] Joey Moore '23 [3-4, 7-8]
Varsity	Anthony Moore '25	Mason Haborak '25
Wando	William Hussey '22 [1-6] Ian Bosse '21 [7-8]	Laura Johnston '21 [1-6]
Wando Warriors	Robert Silcox '21	Tyler Payzant '21

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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Sunbury NP#3

Division A

Division B

From the notes