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TC SPRING FLING

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 1 19 14 33
2 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 2 24 33 57
3 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Gold 2 50 29 79
4 Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 49 41 90
5 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Gold 1 34 63 97
6 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 53 46 99
7 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 51 54 105
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 1 2 1 1 4 5 1 1 1 1 2 19 Noah Robitshek '21
Grace Vanstratt '27
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 2 1 2 2 3 4 3 2 2 2 3 24 Lucas Rodenroth '24
Trey Harding '23
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Gold 1 7 6 4 1 1 2 3 4 5 1 34 Colin Gordon '22
Holden Trapp '26
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 4 5 5 7 3 5 6 3 7 4 49 Alex Reynolds '24
Max Braund '24
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Gold 2 5 3 3 6 6 7 5 7 3 5 50 Cj Enoksen '25
Jack Baird '25
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 3 7 7 5 2 4 7 6 4 6 51 Ryan Schmidt '21
Tyler Winowiecki '23
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 6 4 6 2 7 6 4 5 6 7 53 Grant Miller '24
Simon Hegg '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 14 Abigail Paul '21
Griffin Wright '21
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Gold 2 2 2 1 2 1 4 5 6 2 4 29 Daniel Kotsekon '25
Winston Hegg '26
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 2 3 4 2 4 5 3 3 3 3 3 33 Case Brooks '24
Cole Harding '23
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 6 7 4 6 3 2 2 4 5 2 41 Andrew Godmer '22
Jr Bergerson '24
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 5 3 7 5 4 6 4 1 4 7 46 Lee Forton '23
Hunter Hawes '21
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 4 5 6 3 6 5 7 5 7 6 54 Sophia Barbas '25
Becky Lechota '25
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Gold 1 7 6 5 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 63 Sage Brown '22
Malia Dickinson '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (15 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed4444444444
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Mixed5555555555
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 13333333333
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 21111111111
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Gold 16666666666
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Gold 22222222222
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Varsity Green7777777777

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed4444444444
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Mixed5555555555
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 13333333333
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Black 21111111111
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Gold 16666666666
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Gold 22222222222
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Varsity Green7777777777
School / Team SkipperCrew
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City Ryan Schmidt '21 Tyler Winowiecki '23
TCSF Mixed Sophia Barbas '25 Becky Lechota '25
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Grant Miller '24 Simon Hegg '24
TCC Mixed Lee Forton '23 Hunter Hawes '21
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Noah Robitshek '21 Grace Vanstratt '27
TCC Varsity Black 1 Abigail Paul '21 Griffin Wright '21
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Lucas Rodenroth '24 Trey Harding '23
TCC Varsity Black 2 Case Brooks '24 Cole Harding '23
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Colin Gordon '22 Holden Trapp '26
TCC Varsity Gold 1 Sage Brown '22 Malia Dickinson '23
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Cj Enoksen '25 Jack Baird '25
TCC Varsity Gold 2 Daniel Kotsekon '25 Winston Hegg '26
Traverse City West Traverse City West Alex Reynolds '24 Max Braund '24
TCW Varsity Green Andrew Godmer '22 Jr Bergerson '24

Conditions — 05/22/2021 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 70%  ·  Pressure 1023.9 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 74°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
10.1 kn
avg  ·  max 11.2 kn
Gusts to 23.3 kn
From WSW (250°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover20% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1023.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.35 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (19 labelled days at St. Francis Travers/Traverse City Centra/Traverse City West).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →