Tulip Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 10 9 19
2 Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Maroon 18 19 37
3 West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Panthers 31 28 59
4 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue 27 42 69
5 Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Mixed 44 30 74
6 Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 46 47 93
7 Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 30 65 95
8 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 76 26 102
9 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 58 49 107
10 St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears 42 68 110
11 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Gold 71 45 116
12 East Lansing High School East Lansing High School East Lansing MIXED 57 73 130
13 Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 66 68 134
14 St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 68 69 137
15 Lansing Catholic Lansing Catholic LansingCatholicMixed 83 84 167
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 5 1 1 1 1 1 10 Eden Nykamp '21 [1-6]
Alden Gort '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Ella Sligh '24 [3-4]
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Maroon 3 3 2 2 2 6 18 Greta Traver '23
Harmon Vandenberg '22
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue 1 5 4 5 5 7 27 Gabe Maday '22
Tyler Winowiecki '23
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed 6 6 7 3 4 4 30 Brooklyn Verplank '25
Gavin Yonker '24
West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Panthers 4 2 3 4 DNS 2 31 Caitlin Derby '22
Joey Skerbeck '23
St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears BKD 4 11 10 3 12 42 Silas Lorenz '23
Emmet Lorenz '25
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Mixed 8 10 10 6 7 3 44 Lauren Siegers '21
Cameron Bert '26
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 10 8 5 9 6 8 46 Andrew Godmer '22
Max Braund '24
East Lansing High School East Lansing High School East Lansing MIXED 11 12 8 8 8 10 57 Michael Kovalchik '23
Danielle Mason '24
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 7 7 DSQ 7 DNS 5 58 Jack Hubbard '25
Caleb Keenan '25
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 15 13 9 11 9 9 66 Case Brooks '24
Trey Harding '23
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 12 9 12 12 12 11 68 Isley Moshier '25
Winston Hegg '26
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Gold 9 11 13 14 10 14 71 Hunter Hawes '21
Lee Forton '23
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 13 15 6 13 DNS 13 76 Grant Miller '24
Simon Hegg '24
Lansing Catholic Lansing Catholic LansingCatholicMixed 14 14 14 15 11 15 83 Lena Clark '22
Zinzi Malete '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 4 1 1 1 1 1 9 Lj Nykamp '25 [1-6]
Kiarra Bracelly '25 [1-2]
Jonas Pearson '25 [3-4]
Matthew Tevelde '26 [5-6]
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Maroon 1 BKD 3 4 6 2 19 Amelia Traver '24
Lily Johnson '23
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 6 7 2 2 2 7 26 Cj Enoksen '25
Jack Baird '25
West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Panthers 2 5 6 7 5 3 28 Joshua Elwood '22
Carson Dobb '24
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Mixed 5 3 5 8 4 5 30 Aiden Hollebeek '21
Hanan Lomax '25
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue 3 2 4 12 8 13 42 Luke Adams '24
Ryan Schmidt '21
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Gold 8 8 9 3 9 8 45 Sage Brown '22
Malia Dickinson '23
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green 7 6 7 9 7 11 47 Alex Reynolds '24
Cameron Keillor '24
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 9 10 10 5 3 12 49 Ben Dornbush '22
Trevor Dill '22
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed DNF 11 8 DSQ 10 4 65 Andrew Twa '24
Joshua Hacker '24
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 10 9 13 11 11 14 68 Cole Harding '23
Moses Coco '25
St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Bears 12 DNS 12 6 12 10 68 Bergen Fischer '25
Jack Hirsh '23
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed 11 13 11 10 15 9 69 Sophia Barbas '25
Becky Lechota '25
East Lansing High School East Lansing High School East Lansing MIXED 13 12 14 14 14 6 73 Daniel Kotsekon '25 [1-6]
Enele Malete '24 [1-4]
Holden Trapp '26 [5-6]
Lansing Catholic Lansing Catholic LansingCatholicMixed 14 14 15 13 13 15 84 Clayton Debryun '26 [1-4]
Logan Miceli '27 [5-6]
Holden Trapp '26 [1-4]
Clayton Debryun '26 [5-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Mixed113355
East Lansing High SchoolEast Lansing High School East Lansing MIXED224466
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed335577
Holland Christian High SchoolHolland Christian High School Maroon446688
Holland Christian High SchoolHolland Christian High School Mixed557799
Lansing CatholicLansing Catholic LansingCatholicMixed66881010
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red Mixed77991111
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed9911111313
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue8810101212
St. Joseph High SchoolSt. Joseph High School Bears101012121414
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Mixed1212141411
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Gold111113131515
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Mixed14141133
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Varsity Green1313151522
West Ottawa High SchoolWest Ottawa High School Panthers15152244

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Mixed224466
East Lansing High SchoolEast Lansing High School East Lansing MIXED335577
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed446688
Holland Christian High SchoolHolland Christian High School Maroon557799
Holland Christian High SchoolHolland Christian High School Mixed66881010
Lansing CatholicLansing Catholic LansingCatholicMixed77991111
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red Mixed8810101212
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Mixed101012121414
St. Francis High School Traverse CitySt. Francis High School Traverse City TCSF Varsity Blue9911111313
St. Joseph High SchoolSt. Joseph High School Bears111113131515
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Mixed1313151522
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Varsity Gold1212141411
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Mixed15152244
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Varsity Green14141133
West Ottawa High SchoolWest Ottawa High School Panthers113355
School / Team SkipperCrew
Black River Public School Black River Public School Eden Nykamp '21 [1-6] Alden Gort '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Ella Sligh '24 [3-4]
Mixed Lj Nykamp '25 [1-6] Kiarra Bracelly '25 [1-2]
Jonas Pearson '25 [3-4]
Matthew Tevelde '26 [5-6]
East Lansing High School East Lansing High School Michael Kovalchik '23 Danielle Mason '24
East Lansing MIXED Daniel Kotsekon '25 [1-6] Enele Malete '24 [1-4]
Holden Trapp '26 [5-6]
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School Brooklyn Verplank '25 Gavin Yonker '24
GH Blue Mixed Andrew Twa '24 Joshua Hacker '24
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Greta Traver '23 Harmon Vandenberg '22
Maroon Amelia Traver '24 Lily Johnson '23
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Lauren Siegers '21 Cameron Bert '26
Mixed Aiden Hollebeek '21 Hanan Lomax '25
Lansing Catholic Lansing Catholic Lena Clark '22 Zinzi Malete '24
LansingCatholicMixed Clayton Debryun '26 [1-4]
Logan Miceli '27 [5-6]
Holden Trapp '26 [1-4]
Clayton Debryun '26 [5-6]
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Jack Hubbard '25 Caleb Keenan '25
Red Mixed Ben Dornbush '22 Trevor Dill '22
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City Isley Moshier '25 Winston Hegg '26
TCSF Mixed Sophia Barbas '25 Becky Lechota '25
St. Francis High School Traverse City St. Francis High School Traverse City Gabe Maday '22 Tyler Winowiecki '23
TCSF Varsity Blue Luke Adams '24 Ryan Schmidt '21
St. Joseph High School St. Joseph High School Silas Lorenz '23 Emmet Lorenz '25
Bears Bergen Fischer '25 Jack Hirsh '23
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Grant Miller '24 Simon Hegg '24
TCC Mixed Cj Enoksen '25 Jack Baird '25
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central Hunter Hawes '21 Lee Forton '23
TCC Varsity Gold Sage Brown '22 Malia Dickinson '23
Traverse City West Traverse City West Case Brooks '24 Trey Harding '23
TCW Mixed Cole Harding '23 Moses Coco '25
Traverse City West Traverse City West Andrew Godmer '22 Max Braund '24
TCW Varsity Green Alex Reynolds '24 Cameron Keillor '24
West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Caitlin Derby '22 Joey Skerbeck '23
Panthers Joshua Elwood '22 Carson Dobb '24

Conditions — 05/15/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 41%  ·  Pressure 1023.8 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.1 kn
avg  ·  max 13.3 kn
Gusts to 29.5 kn
From SW (218°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover68% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity41% Pressure1023.8 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at West Ottawa Public: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.31 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at West Ottawa Public by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at West Ottawa Public: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →