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MDISA WRSC Bronze Spring 1

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 12 14 26
2 South River High School South River High School Seahawks 1 23 13 36
3 Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 16 22 38
4 Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 24 32 56
5 Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 36 28 64
6 South River High School South River High School Seahawks 2 37 38 75
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 2 1 1 1 3 3 1 12 Sophie Griggs '24 [1-4, 7]
Lara Nielsen '24 [5-6]
Lara Nielsen '24 [1-4, 7]
Sophie Griggs '24 [5-6]
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 3 2 2 2 2 1 4 16 Anthony Thonnard '22
Miles Wilkin '23
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 1 1 5 3 3 5 4 2 23 Aidan Macgloan '23
No Show
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 4 4 4 4 1 2 5 24 Trent Schneider '24 [1-4]
Nyah Dufek '21 [5-6]
Ayden Muchmore '24 [7]
Nyah Dufek '21 [1-2, 7]
Ayden Muchmore '24 [3-4]
Trent Schneider '24 [5-6]
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 5 6 5 DNF 4 6 3 36 Olivia West '24
Anabel Chambers '24
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 2 6 3 6 5 6 5 6 37 No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 13 No Show
No Show
Southern High School Southern High School Bulldogs 1 2 1 1 2 1 6 14 Griffin Hewitt '21 [1-7]
Eric Nielsen '24 [1-4]
Ransom Plaster '25 [5-7]
Indian Creek School Indian Creek School Eagles 5 3 3 3 5 2 1 22 Malcolm 'Cal' Morris-Berlin '22
Alston Georges '22
Broadneck High School Broadneck High School Bruins 3 6 5 4 3 4 3 28 No Show
Aden Keithley '23
Patuxent Patuxent Panthers 6 4 4 5 4 5 4 32 Caroline Mederos '24 [1-7]
Phoebe Tate Anderson '24 [1-2, 5-7]
Sammy Somers '25 [3-4]
South River High School South River High School Seahawks 2 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 38 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins4444444
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles5555555
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers6666666
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks 12222222
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks 21111111
Southern High SchoolSouthern High School Bulldogs3333333

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Broadneck High SchoolBroadneck High School Bruins4444444
Indian Creek SchoolIndian Creek School Eagles5555555
PatuxentPatuxent Panthers6666666
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks 12222222
South River High SchoolSouth River High School Seahawks 21111111
Southern High SchoolSouthern High School Bulldogs3333333

Conditions — 03/27/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 57%  ·  Pressure 1021.4 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.1 kn
avg  ·  max 10.2 kn
Gusts to 22.7 kn
From SSE (152°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover67% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1021.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Southern: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.18 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.20
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.67 ± 0.53)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Southern by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Southern: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →