Zarmy In-House Regatta Saturday

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 5 11 11
2 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 2 17 17
3 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 4 26 26
4 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 35 35
5 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 3 37 37
6 Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Trailblazers 1 38 38
7 Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Trailblazers 2 41 41
8 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 1 47 47
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 5 2 1 1 1 1 3 2 11 Charlie Herrick '22
Finn Mcdaniel '24
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 2 1 5 2 2 5 1 1 17 Mary Castellini '21
Tyler Knohl '22
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 4 4 2 4 3 4 2 7 26 Tim Mooney '21
Saskia Teterycz '21
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 6 6 8 6 2 4 3 35 Natalia Bretones '23
Julia Bogdanowicz '21
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 3 7 7 3 4 7 5 4 37 Bennett Gottesman '23
Jack O'Connor '23
Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Trailblazers 1 5 8 5 5 3 6 6 38 Lily Brandt '23
Noah Blake '22
Beacon Academy Beacon Academy Trailblazers 2 3 4 6 7 6 7 8 41 Poppy Gelman '22
Stella Brown '23
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 1 8 3 7 8 8 8 5 47 Eva Decastro '24
James Montgomery '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (11 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Beacon AcademyBeacon Academy Trailblazers 13333333
Beacon AcademyBeacon Academy Trailblazers 221212121212121
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits 12222222
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits 24444444
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits 311111111111111
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits 419191919191919
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits 522222222222222
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers16161616161616

Conditions — 05/15/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1022.7 hPa

Temperature

59°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 54°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.4 kn
avg  ·  max 8.7 kn
Gusts to 19.0 kn
From S (178°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine2.5 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1022.7 hPa Rain0.08 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 13 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Beacon Academy/Evanston Township HS/Glenbrook South/Loyola Academy: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.14)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.20
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.61 ± 0.32)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Beacon Academy/Evanston Township HS/Glenbrook South/Loyola Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Beacon Academy/Evanston Township HS/Glenbrook South/Loyola Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →