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Zarmy Regatta 1

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 1 7 7
2 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 2 23 23
3 Glenbrook South High School Glenbrook South High School Titans 2 25 25
4 Glenbrook South High School Glenbrook South High School Titans 1 28 28
5 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 3 28 28
6 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 5 34 34
7 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 4 38 38
8 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 42 42
9 Glenbrook South High School Glenbrook South High School Titans 3 46 46
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 7 Bennett Gottesman '23
Jack O'Connor '23
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 2 3 8 2 4 4 2 23 Jack Bezaitis '23
Rohil Bose '23
Glenbrook South High School Glenbrook South High School Titans 2 4 2 4 3 6 6 25 No Show
Colin Herbolsheimer '23
Glenbrook South High School Glenbrook South High School Titans 1 2 5 7 9 2 3 28 Jakub Fuja '23
Olivia Chigas '24
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 3 6 7 3 5 3 4 28 Eva Decastro '24
James Montgomery '22
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 5 9 4 5 6 5 5 34 William Styslinger '24
Ainslie Pratt '23
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Wildkits 4 7 3 DNS 1 8 9 38 Elliot Voneche '23
Skye Elzaurdia '24
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Ramblers 5 6 8 8 7 8 42 Peter Garrison '24
Claude Strnad '23
Glenbrook South High School Glenbrook South High School Titans 3 8 9 6 7 9 7 46 Carter Johnston '24
Logan Gallenbeck '24
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (13 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits 1111111111111
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits 2181818181818
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits 3444444
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits 4191919191919
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Wildkits 5212121212121
Glenbrook South High SchoolGlenbrook South High School Titans 1111111
Glenbrook South High SchoolGlenbrook South High School Titans 2555555
Glenbrook South High SchoolGlenbrook South High School Titans 3121212121212
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Ramblers666666

Conditions — 04/18/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 45%  ·  Pressure 1012.7 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.4 kn
avg  ·  max 6.2 kn
Gusts to 16.3 kn
From SW (234°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover83% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity45% Pressure1012.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Beacon Academy/Evanston Township HS/Glenbrook South/Loyola Academy: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.42 ± 0.37)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Beacon Academy/Evanston Township HS/Glenbrook South/Loyola Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Beacon Academy/Evanston Township HS/Glenbrook South/Loyola Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →