AYC Spring Series 2

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Cavaliers 1 Cavaliers 1 Cavaliers 1 4 4
2 SEISA 1 SEISA 1 SEISA 1 14 14
3 Cavaliers 3 Cavaliers 3 Cavaliers 3 14 14
4 SEISA 2 SEISA 2 SEISA 2 15 15
5 Cavaliers 2 Cavaliers 2 Cavaliers 2 15 15
6 Cavaliers 4 Cavaliers 4 Cavaliers 4 26 26
7 Chaparrals Chaparrals Chaparrals 28 28
8 Vista Ridge Vista Ridge Vista Ridge 28 28
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT
Cavaliers 1 Cavaliers 1 Cavaliers 1 1 1 1 1 4
SEISA 1 SEISA 1 SEISA 1 2 3 5 4 14
Cavaliers 3 Cavaliers 3 Cavaliers 3 3 7 2 2 14
SEISA 2 SEISA 2 SEISA 2 4 2 4 5 15
Cavaliers 2 Cavaliers 2 Cavaliers 2 5 4 3 3 15
Cavaliers 4 Cavaliers 4 Cavaliers 4 6 5 7 8 26
Chaparrals Chaparrals Chaparrals 7 8 6 7 28
Vista Ridge Vista Ridge Vista Ridge 8 6 8 6 28
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Cavaliers 1Cavaliers 1 Cavaliers 11111
Cavaliers 2Cavaliers 2 Cavaliers 22222
Cavaliers 3Cavaliers 3 Cavaliers 33333
Cavaliers 4Cavaliers 4 Cavaliers 44444
SEISA 1SEISA 1 SEISA 15555
SEISA 2SEISA 2 SEISA 26666
Vista RidgeVista Ridge Vista Ridge7777
ChaparralsChaparrals Chaparrals8888

Conditions — 03/25/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 24%  ·  Pressure 1018.8 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 82°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 69°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.3 kn
avg  ·  max 5.7 kn
Gusts to 13.8 kn
From ESE (109°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.2 hrs Humidity24% Pressure1018.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Lake Travis — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Lake Travis in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Lake Travis by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Lake Travis, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →