CBI 420 Series Five

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Newton Country Day School Newton Country Day School Falcons 1 14 14
2 The Winsor School The Winsor School Winsor Wildcats 1 14 14
3 Beaver Country Day School Beaver Country Day School Beavers 2 30 30
4 The Winsor School The Winsor School Winsor Wildcats 2 30 30
5 Beaver Country Day School Beaver Country Day School Beavers 1 34 34
6 Natick High School Natick High School Redhawks 1 43 43
7 Natick High School Natick High School Redhawks 2 45 45
8 Natick High School Natick High School Redhawks 3 52 52
9 Newton Country Day School Newton Country Day School Falcons 2 54 54
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Newton Country Day School Newton Country Day School Falcons 1 1 1 3 3 1 2 3 14 Jane Mathews '22
Annie Depriest '22
The Winsor School The Winsor School Winsor Wildcats 1 2 2 1 1 2 5 1 14 Savanna Hurd '27
Grace Abbot '22
Beaver Country Day School Beaver Country Day School Beavers 2 6 5 2 6 6 3 2 30 Samantha Thomson '23
Felicia Selbst '23
The Winsor School The Winsor School Winsor Wildcats 2 8 3 5 5 3 1 5 30 Ada Horton '29
Deedee Ansari '24
Beaver Country Day School Beaver Country Day School Beavers 1 3 DNF 4 2 4 4 7 34 Brendan Sheeran '22
Christopher Fletcher '22
Natick High School Natick High School Redhawks 1 4 4 9 4 8 6 8 43 Nick Belev '22
Ewan Rich '25
Natick High School Natick High School Redhawks 2 5 7 6 9 5 9 4 45 Harper Mccarthy '24
Artur Hayashi '25
Natick High School Natick High School Redhawks 3 9 6 8 7 9 7 6 52 Theo Topaloff '24
Anna Mcenaney '22
Newton Country Day School Newton Country Day School Falcons 2 7 8 7 8 7 8 9 54 Caroline Meckel '24
Avery Spaulding '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2022 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Beaver Country Day SchoolBeaver Country Day School Beavers 114141414141414
Beaver Country Day SchoolBeaver Country Day School Beavers 213131313131313
Natick High SchoolNatick High School Redhawks 19999999
Natick High SchoolNatick High School Redhawks 25555555
Natick High SchoolNatick High School Redhawks 34444444
Newton Country Day SchoolNewton Country Day School Falcons 18888888
Newton Country Day SchoolNewton Country Day School Falcons 27777777
The Winsor SchoolThe Winsor School Winsor Wildcats 111111111111111
The Winsor SchoolThe Winsor School Winsor Wildcats 210101010101010
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Beaver Country Day School Beaver Country Day School Beavers 1 Brendan Sheeran '22 Christopher Fletcher '22
Beaver Country Day School Beaver Country Day School Beavers 2 Samantha Thomson '23 Felicia Selbst '23
Natick High School Natick High School Redhawks 1 Nick Belev '22 Ewan Rich '25
Natick High School Natick High School Redhawks 2 Harper Mccarthy '24 Artur Hayashi '25
Natick High School Natick High School Redhawks 3 Theo Topaloff '24 Anna Mcenaney '22
Newton Country Day School Newton Country Day School Falcons 1 Jane Mathews '22 Annie Depriest '22
Newton Country Day School Newton Country Day School Falcons 2 Caroline Meckel '24 Avery Spaulding '25
The Winsor School The Winsor School Winsor Wildcats 1 Savanna Hurd '27 Grace Abbot '22
The Winsor School The Winsor School Winsor Wildcats 2 Ada Horton '29 Deedee Ansari '24

Conditions — 05/11/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1027.5 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.0 kn
avg  ·  max 9.0 kn
Gusts to 21.8 kn
From NE (54°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine5.3 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1027.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Needham: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.18 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.21
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.15 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Needham by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Needham: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →