LTHS Spring Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Unregistered-SEISA Unregistered-SEISA SEISA-Austin 2 21 21
2 Unregistered-SEISA Unregistered-SEISA SEISA 3 30 30
3 Unregistered-SEISA Unregistered-SEISA SEISA-Austin 1 34 34
4 Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 49 49
5 Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Vikings 1 49 49
6 Unregistered-SEISA Unregistered-SEISA SEISA 1 55 55
7 Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Vikings 4 80 80
8 Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Vikings 5 87 87
9 Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Vikings 3 94 94
10 Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Vikings 2 108 108
11 Unregistered-SEISA Unregistered-SEISA SEISA 2 132 132
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
Unregistered-SEISA Unregistered-SEISA SEISA-Austin 2 1 1 4 1 4 3 1 2 2 1 1 21 Roni Sela '27
Catherine Froelich '25
Unregistered-SEISA Unregistered-SEISA SEISA 3 4 3 2 5 2 2 3 1 3 3 2 30 Nicholas Carew '22
Caleb Chow '24
Unregistered-SEISA Unregistered-SEISA SEISA-Austin 1 5 2 1 4 3 4 5 4 1 2 3 34 Fiona Froelich '23
Sofia Pando '25
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 3 6 3 2 5 5 6 5 6 4 4 49 Ryder Getson '25
Zachary Romberg '26
Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Vikings 1 6 4 OCS 3 1 1 4 3 5 5 5 49 Parker Younger '22
Evan Berecin '24
Unregistered-SEISA Unregistered-SEISA SEISA 1 2 5 5 6 6 6 2 7 4 6 6 55 Zach Aronson '23
Matthew Sabuda '23
Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Vikings 4 8 8 6 7 7 8 9 6 7 7 7 80 Noah Gammell '25
Christian Lopez '26
Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Vikings 5 7 7 7 9 8 7 8 9 8 9 8 87 Isabel Gammel '27
Max Boettcher '25
Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Vikings 3 9 9 8 8 10 9 7 8 9 8 9 94 Lilly Moody '26
Athan Hernandez '25
Nolan Catholic High School Nolan Catholic High School Vikings 2 10 10 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 108 Mickey Valenti '25
Jaden Barraza '26
Unregistered-SEISA Unregistered-SEISA SEISA 2 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 132 Gidget Hurley '23
Liberty Mitchell '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A
Lake Travis High SchoolLake Travis High School Cavaliers11223344556
Nolan Catholic High SchoolNolan Catholic High School Vikings 122334455668
Nolan Catholic High SchoolNolan Catholic High School Vikings 233445566889
Nolan Catholic High SchoolNolan Catholic High School Vikings 3445566889910
Nolan Catholic High SchoolNolan Catholic High School Vikings 455668899101011
Nolan Catholic High SchoolNolan Catholic High School Vikings 56688991010111112
Unregistered-SEISAUnregistered-SEISA SEISA 110101111121211223
Unregistered-SEISAUnregistered-SEISA SEISA 2111112121122334
Unregistered-SEISAUnregistered-SEISA SEISA 31212112233445
Unregistered-SEISAUnregistered-SEISA SEISA-Austin 188991010111112121
Unregistered-SEISAUnregistered-SEISA SEISA-Austin 299101011111212112

Conditions — 04/30/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 71%  ·  Pressure 1010.6 hPa

Temperature

79°F
↑ 84°F   ↓ 72°F
Feels like 85°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.8 kn
avg  ·  max 9.1 kn
Gusts to 19.2 kn
From NNW (334°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover56% Sunshine9.7 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1010.6 hPa Rain0.16 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 6 kn · SE 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Lake Travis: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.16 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.17
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.49 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Lake Travis by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Lake Travis, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →