Mallory Pre Q East Michigan

HostDetroit Country Day/Mercy - MI/West Bloomfield
Date04/09/2022
TypeDistrict Champ Qualifier
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Grosse Pointe South High School	Blue Devils	22	17	39
2	Birmingham Public Schools	Varsity	34	39	73
3	Traverse City Central	TCC Varsity Black	60	32	92
4	Troy High School	Troy	49	51	100
5	Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit	MUDJ	37	63	100
6	Black River Public School	Varsity	54	47	101
7	Cranbrook Kingswood	Blue	67	38	105
8	West Bloomfield High School	Lakers Varsity	62	47	109
9	Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI	BRM Blue	22	88	110
10	Detroit Country Day School	Varsity	53	68	121
11	Traverse City West	TCW Varsity Green	70	53	123
12	Grosse Pointe North High School	Norsemen	94	84	178

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI	BRM Blue	1	4	1	1	3	1	3	8	22	Owen Bannasch '22 Declan Mcgrath '23
Grosse Pointe South High School	Blue Devils	2	2	3	5	1	2	6	1	22	Doug Cowan '22 Eric Brieden '24
Birmingham Public Schools	Varsity	3	3	2	3	7	5	5	6	34	Michael Mullins '23 Nate Bacheller '24
Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit	MUDJ	9	1	6	9	2	4	2	4	37	Nick Myneni '22 [1-8] Liam Dowling '24 [1-4] Gabe Morreale '24 [5-8]
Troy High School	Troy	5	8	8	6	4	9	4	5	49	Rodrigo Flores '24 [1-8] Dane Greenwood '23 [1-4] Jacob Ritter '24 [5-8]
Detroit Country Day School	Varsity	6	5	9	2	6	7	8	10	53	Liam Hounsell '23 Bryan Lu '25
Black River Public School	Varsity	4	9	7	10	11	3	1	9	54	Lj Nykamp '25 Kiarra Bracelly '25
Traverse City Central	TCC Varsity Black	11	10	5	8	8	6	9	3	60	Colin Gordon '22 [1-8] Grace Vanstratt '27 [1-4, 7-8] Isley Moshier '25 [5-6]
West Bloomfield High School	Lakers Varsity	7	6	4	7	10	11	10	7	62	Walter Paliga '22 [1-8] Brent Armstrong '25 [1-6] Liam Gilin '25 [7-8]
Cranbrook Kingswood	Blue	8	7	12	12	5	10	11	2	67	Michael Aguilar '24 [1-4] Aaron Wang '25 [5-8] Charlie Gonzalez '23 [1-2] Jack Harman '23 [3-8]
Traverse City West	TCW Varsity Green	10	11	10	4	9	8	7	11	70	Ella Beck '22 Alex Reynolds '24
Grosse Pointe North High School	Norsemen	12	12	11	11	12	12	12	12	94	George Prokop '24 [1-8] Lauren Shipe '24 [1-6] Zoey Crossley '23 [7-8]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Grosse Pointe South High School	Blue Devils	2	1	1	1	1	6	3	2	17	Gavin Webster '24 [1-2, 5-6] Braden Vogel '23 [3-4, 7-8] Colin Hexter '23 [1-2, 5-6] Grant Corrion '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Traverse City Central	TCC Varsity Black	4	4	8	6	2	5	2	1	32	Lucas Rodenroth '24 [1-8] Case Brooks '24 [1-4] Simon Hegg '24 [5-8]
Cranbrook Kingswood	Blue	3	10	2	4	DSQ	1	1	4	38	Charlie Gonzalez '23 Max Crozier '23
Birmingham Public Schools	Varsity	6	2	7	9	3	2	7	3	39	Luke Strickland '22 [1-8] Nasser Awada '23 [1-2, 5-8] Drew Noser '23 [3-4]
West Bloomfield High School	Lakers Varsity	1	5	3	5	DSQ	9	4	7	47	Vinny Paliga '24 [1-8] Jack Armstrong '25 [1-4, 7-8] Liam Gilin '25 [5-6]
Black River Public School	Varsity	10	7	5	2	6	3	5	9	47	Alden Gort '22 Anneke Hackney '25
Troy High School	Troy	8	3	9	7	4	4	10	6	51	Monika Torkos '23 [1-4] Dane Greenwood '23 [5-8] Nicole Torkos '25 [1-4] Sophia Worden '23 [5-8]
Traverse City West	TCW Varsity Green	9	8	6	3	9	7	6	5	53	Cameron Keillor '24 [1-4] Andrew Godmer '22 [5-8] Max Braund '24 [1-4] Cameron Keillor '24 [5-8]
Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit	MUDJ	5	12	4	8	7	10	9	8	63	Graham Rebain '25 [1-8] Gabe Morreale '24 [1-3] Will Hilborn '22 [4] Liam Dowling '24 [5-8]
Detroit Country Day School	Varsity	7	6	10	11	5	11	8	10	68	Aarush Kapur '25 [1-4] Miles Laker '23 [5-8] Miles Laker '23 [1-4] Aarush Kapur '25 [5-6] Andrew Wiand '25 [7-8]
Grosse Pointe North High School	Norsemen	11	11	11	12	8	8	11	12	84	Nicholas Williams '24 Kate Bania '24
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI	BRM Blue	12	9	12	10	10	12	12	11	88	Brian Totonchi '24 [1-8] Emily Fanning '23 [1-2] Alexandra Hafley '23 [3-8]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.140+0.14

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2021 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Birmingham Public Schools Varsity	20	20	22	22	24	24	14	14
Black River Public School Varsity	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Blue	14	14	16	16	18	18	20	20
Cranbrook Kingswood Blue	15	15	17	17	19	19	21	21
Detroit Country Day School Varsity	16	16	18	18	20	20	22	22
Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen	17	17	19	19	21	21	23	23
Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils	18	18	20	20	22	22	24	24
Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ	19	19	21	21	23	23	13	13
Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black	21	21	23	23	13	13	15	15
Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green	22	22	24	24	14	14	16	16
Troy High School Troy	23	23	13	13	15	15	17	17
West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity	24	24	14	14	16	16	18	18

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Birmingham Public Schools Varsity	21	21	23	23	13	13	15	15
Black River Public School Varsity	14	14	16	16	18	18	20	20
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Blue	15	15	17	17	19	19	21	21
Cranbrook Kingswood Blue	16	16	18	18	20	20	22	22
Detroit Country Day School Varsity	17	17	19	19	21	21	23	23
Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen	18	18	20	20	22	22	24	24
Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils	19	19	21	21	23	23	13	13
Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ	20	20	22	22	24	24	14	14
Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black	22	22	24	24	14	14	16	16
Traverse City West TCW Varsity Green	23	23	13	13	15	15	17	17
Troy High School Troy	24	24	14	14	16	16	18	18
West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Birmingham Public Schools	Michael Mullins '23	Nate Bacheller '24
Varsity	Luke Strickland '22 [1-8]	Nasser Awada '23 [1-2, 5-8] Drew Noser '23 [3-4]
Black River Public School	Lj Nykamp '25	Kiarra Bracelly '25
Varsity	Alden Gort '22	Anneke Hackney '25
Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI	Owen Bannasch '22	Declan Mcgrath '23
BRM Blue	Brian Totonchi '24 [1-8]	Emily Fanning '23 [1-2] Alexandra Hafley '23 [3-8]
Cranbrook Kingswood	Michael Aguilar '24 [1-4] Aaron Wang '25 [5-8]	Charlie Gonzalez '23 [1-2] Jack Harman '23 [3-8]
Blue	Charlie Gonzalez '23	Max Crozier '23
Detroit Country Day School	Liam Hounsell '23	Bryan Lu '25
Varsity	Aarush Kapur '25 [1-4] Miles Laker '23 [5-8]	Miles Laker '23 [1-4] Aarush Kapur '25 [5-6] Andrew Wiand '25 [7-8]
Grosse Pointe North High School	George Prokop '24 [1-8]	Lauren Shipe '24 [1-6] Zoey Crossley '23 [7-8]
Norsemen	Nicholas Williams '24	Kate Bania '24
Grosse Pointe South High School	Doug Cowan '22	Eric Brieden '24
Blue Devils	Gavin Webster '24 [1-2, 5-6] Braden Vogel '23 [3-4, 7-8]	Colin Hexter '23 [1-2, 5-6] Grant Corrion '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit	Nick Myneni '22 [1-8]	Liam Dowling '24 [1-4] Gabe Morreale '24 [5-8]
MUDJ	Graham Rebain '25 [1-8]	Gabe Morreale '24 [1-3] Will Hilborn '22 [4] Liam Dowling '24 [5-8]
Traverse City Central	Colin Gordon '22 [1-8]	Grace Vanstratt '27 [1-4, 7-8] Isley Moshier '25 [5-6]
TCC Varsity Black	Lucas Rodenroth '24 [1-8]	Case Brooks '24 [1-4] Simon Hegg '24 [5-8]
Traverse City West	Ella Beck '22	Alex Reynolds '24
TCW Varsity Green	Cameron Keillor '24 [1-4] Andrew Godmer '22 [5-8]	Max Braund '24 [1-4] Cameron Keillor '24 [5-8]
Troy High School	Rodrigo Flores '24 [1-8]	Dane Greenwood '23 [1-4] Jacob Ritter '24 [5-8]
Troy	Monika Torkos '23 [1-4] Dane Greenwood '23 [5-8]	Nicole Torkos '25 [1-4] Sophia Worden '23 [5-8]
West Bloomfield High School	Walter Paliga '22 [1-8]	Brent Armstrong '25 [1-6] Liam Gilin '25 [7-8]
Lakers Varsity	Vinny Paliga '24 [1-8]	Jack Armstrong '25 [1-4, 7-8] Liam Gilin '25 [5-6]

Conditions — 04/09/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 62% · Pressure 1007.9 hPa

Temperature

39°F

↑ 42°F ↓ 34°F

Feels like 29°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.3 kn

avg · max 12.1 kn

Gusts to 20.4 kn

From WNW (287°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine4.0 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1007.9 hPa Snow0.03 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 12 kn · W 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Detroit Country Day/Mercy - MI/West Bloomfield: a typical day (−0.02)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.03

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.12 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Detroit Country Day/Mercy - MI/West Bloomfield by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Detroit Country Day/Mercy - MI/West Bloomfield: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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