NYISA-NW Spring Opener

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 1 10 10
2 Brighton High School Brighton High School Bruins 1 15 15
3 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 24 24
4 Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 2 24 24
5 Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 2 24 24
6 Webster Central Schools Webster Central Schools Webster Central s 41 41
7 Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 2 41 41
8 Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 1 42 42
9 St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 2 44 44
10 St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 1 45 45
11 Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 3 51 51
12 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 4 51 51
13 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 60 60
14 Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 1 67 67
15 Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 69 69
16 Brighton High School Brighton High School Bruins 2 73 73
17 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 3 84 84
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 1 1 1 6 1 1 10 Adam Strobridge '22
Anna Foe '23
Brighton High School Brighton High School Bruins 1 6 2 3 2 2 15 Finn Mahan '22
Gabe Ferreira '23
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 2 5 8 5 4 24 Brooks Turcotte '23
Grace Felton '23
Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 2 4 3 11 3 3 24 Peter Higgins '22
Liam Sorrels '23
Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 2 5 7 1 6 5 24 Matt Lago '23
Emily Grevell '23
Webster Central Schools Webster Central Schools Webster Central s 3 10 13 8 7 41 Layla Altobelli '24
No Show
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 2 7 8 4 13 9 41 Helena Allocco '25
Ruby Deascentiis '25
Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 1 9 14 2 4 13 42 Bobby Dodge '22
Annie Dodge '25
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 2 11 9 7 7 10 44 Thomas Ferguson '23
William Wadhams '25
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 1 12 6 10 11 6 45 Alexander O'Heron '24
Landon Bova '25
Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 3 10 13 5 9 14 51 No Show
No Show
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 4 13 4 16 10 8 51 Zoe Pike '24
Emma Malmstrom Jouannet '25
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 8 11 15 15 11 60 Nolan Lefler '25
Aly Dalton '24
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 1 14 12 12 14 15 67 Abigail Ogie '24
Joelle Blankenship '23
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings 16 15 9 17 12 69 Andrew Fors '22
Anthony Honeine '24
Brighton High School Brighton High School Bruins 2 15 16 14 12 16 73 Angelina Guilfoyle '23
Aidan Austin '23
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 3 17 17 17 16 17 84 Heidi Swan-Leuze '24
Lucy Colburn '24
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.200+0.20
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Brighton High SchoolBrighton High School Bruins 166666
Brighton High SchoolBrighton High School Bruins 21414141414
Fairport High SchoolFairport High School Red Raiders 133333
Fairport High SchoolFairport High School Red Raiders 222222
Fairport High SchoolFairport High School Red Raiders 31010101010
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs 111111
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs 21313131313
Nichols SchoolNichols School Vikings99999
Pittsford High SchoolPittsford High School Knights 155555
Pittsford High SchoolPittsford High School Knights 21212121212
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 11515151515
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 21616161616
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 31717171717
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 41818181818
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 177777
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 288888
Webster Central SchoolsWebster Central Schools Webster Central s44444
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Brighton High School Brighton High School Bruins 1 Finn Mahan '22 Gabe Ferreira '23
Brighton High School Brighton High School Bruins 2 Angelina Guilfoyle '23 Aidan Austin '23
Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 1 Adam Strobridge '22 Anna Foe '23
Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 2 Matt Lago '23 Emily Grevell '23
Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 3 No Show No Show
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 1 Abigail Ogie '24 Joelle Blankenship '23
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 2 Helena Allocco '25 Ruby Deascentiis '25
Nichols School Nichols School Vikings Andrew Fors '22 Anthony Honeine '24
Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 1 Bobby Dodge '22 Annie Dodge '25
Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 2 Peter Higgins '22 Liam Sorrels '23
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 Brooks Turcotte '23 Grace Felton '23
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 Nolan Lefler '25 Aly Dalton '24
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 3 Heidi Swan-Leuze '24 Lucy Colburn '24
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 4 Zoe Pike '24 Emma Malmstrom Jouannet '25
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 1 Alexander O'Heron '24 Landon Bova '25
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 2 Thomas Ferguson '23 William Wadhams '25
Webster Central Schools Webster Central Schools Webster Central s Layla Altobelli '24 No Show

Conditions — 03/19/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 79%  ·  Pressure 1002.8 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.7 kn
avg  ·  max 12.1 kn
Gusts to 33.2 kn
From SSW (207°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover69% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity79% Pressure1002.8 hPa Rain0.21 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Brighton: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.12)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.06 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Brighton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Brighton, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →