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Wet & Cool Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates Gold 14 12 26
2 Bayshore Christian School Bayshore Christian School Eagles 14 14 28
3 St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals 17 28 45
4 UMS-Wright UMS-Wright Bulldogs - Varsity 23 23 46
5 Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates Blue 30 22 52
6 Fighting Irish Fighting Irish Fighting Irish 32 29 61
7 Admirals Admirals Admirals 38 41 79
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates Gold 2 3 2 2 3 2 14 Cruz Dabney '26 [1-4]
Coleman Kennedy '25 [5-6]
Coleman Kennedy '25 [1-4]
Layton Dugger '26 [5-6]
Bayshore Christian School Bayshore Christian School Eagles 3 2 1 5 2 1 14 Joe Comer '26
Issac Sprayberry '27
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals 1 1 5 3 4 3 17 Nate Hartwell '24
Graham Rose '24
UMS-Wright UMS-Wright Bulldogs - Varsity 4 4 3 1 7 4 23 Isabelle Gautier '22
Andy Purvis '25
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates Blue 5 7 6 6 1 5 30 Elijah Healy '22
Silas Healy '23
Fighting Irish Fighting Irish Fighting Irish 7 5 4 4 6 6 32
Admirals Admirals Admirals 6 6 7 7 5 7 38
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates Gold 3 3 1 1 1 3 12 Axel Jackson '26 [1-4]
Layton Dugger '26 [5-6]
Layton Dugger '26 [1-4]
Coleman Kennedy '25 [5-6]
Bayshore Christian School Bayshore Christian School Eagles 1 1 5 3 3 1 14 Aidyn James '25
Issac Sprayberry '27
Fairhope High School Fairhope High School Pirates Blue 4 2 2 4 5 5 22 Gavin Valentine '22
Barron Robinson '27
UMS-Wright UMS-Wright Bulldogs - Varsity 6 5 4 2 2 4 23 Loram Segee '22
John Martin Walter '23
St. Michael Catholic High School St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals 2 4 3 6 7 6 28 Ava Cocke '23
Tomas Christiansen '27
Fighting Irish Fighting Irish Fighting Irish 5 6 7 5 4 2 29
Admirals Admirals Admirals 7 7 6 7 6 DNS 41
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Bayshore Christian SchoolBayshore Christian School Eagles9912121414
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Pirates Blue111113131616
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Pirates Gold121214141717
AdmiralsAdmirals Admirals1313161699
St. Michael Catholic High SchoolSt. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals141417171111
Fighting IrishFighting Irish Fighting Irish1616991212
UMS-WrightUMS-Wright Bulldogs - Varsity171711111313

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Bayshore Christian SchoolBayshore Christian School Eagles111113131616
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Pirates Blue121214141717
Fairhope High SchoolFairhope High School Pirates Gold1313161699
AdmiralsAdmirals Admirals141417171111
St. Michael Catholic High SchoolSt. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals1616991212
Fighting IrishFighting Irish Fighting Irish171711111313
UMS-WrightUMS-Wright Bulldogs - Varsity9912121414

Conditions — 03/12/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 44%  ·  Pressure 1024.1 hPa

Temperature

44°F
↑ 48°F   ↓ 37°F
Feels like 32°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
16.2 kn
avg  ·  max 22.3 kn
Gusts to 43.7 kn
From NNW (344°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover1% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity44% Pressure1024.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 32 kn · SE 6 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Fairhope Yacht Club: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.14)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.37 ± 0.32)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Fairhope Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Fairhope Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →