2023 Norcal 6 Silver Fleet

HostTreasure Island Sailing Center
Date02/12/2023
TypeIn-League
BoatCFJ
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Stevenson School	Pirates 2	17	17
2	Willow Glen	Willow Glen	31	31
3	Stevenson School	Pirates 1	33	33
4	Palo Alto High	Vikings	36	36
5	Varsity	Varsity	37	37
6	Aragon High School	Aragon	45	45
7	Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans 1	46	46
8	Blues	Blues	49	49
9	Marin Catholic	Wildcats 1	57	57
10	Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans 2	67	67
11	Campolindo High School	Cougars	76	76
12	Archbishop Riordan	Riordan	77	77
13	Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	78	78
14	The Athenian School	Owls	83	83
15	Yellowjackets	Yellowjackets	86	86
16	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	87	87
17	Oakland Technical High School	Varsity	88	88
18	Marin Catholic	Wildcats 2	90	90
19	Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	99	99
20	Amador Valley	Dons	99	99
21	Encinal High School	Jets	113	113

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Stevenson School	Pirates 2	2	5	1	2	5	2	17	Abbie Zhang '24 Tim Zhao '24
Willow Glen	Willow Glen	5	1	4	8	6	7	31
Stevenson School	Pirates 1	3	7	5	7	8	3	33	Patrick O'Hara '27 Aaron Eagle '27
Palo Alto High	Vikings	9	10	9	5	2	1	36	Mira Stettner '27 Cal Currier '24
Varsity	Varsity	1	2	3	3	DNF	6	37
Aragon High School	Aragon	7	13	7	4	9	5	45	Marie Peroulas '29 Sarah Garcia '25
Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans 1	13	6	2	6	10	9	46	David Hervy '25 Jaehyoung Park '24
Blues	Blues	11	3	8	12	1	14	49
Marin Catholic	Wildcats 1	10	9	17	14	3	4	57	Ben Brooks '24 Luca Hines '24
Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans 2	16	4	11	10	11	15	67	Jaiden Jacobs '24 Arthur Tran '24
Campolindo High School	Cougars	14	16	10	9	14	13	76	Liam Hearn '24 [1-6] Sage Balducci '26 [1-5] Patricia Davila Gil '26 [6]
Archbishop Riordan	Riordan	12	8	18	13	15	11	77	Eva Bennett '25 Sophie Bucker '24
Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	4	15	12	18	17	12	78	John Nix '25 [1-6] Linnea Furlan '23 [1-5] Joeclyn Chen '26 [6]
The Athenian School	Owls	17	11	14	11	12	18	83	Matthew Daco '26 California Nunes '24
Yellowjackets	Yellowjackets	6	DNF	15	19	7	17	86
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	18	19	13	16	13	8	87	Charles Winstead '24 [1-2, 6] Genevieve Cantin '25 [3-5] Paula Castillo Hi Espino '23 [1-5] Genevieve Cantin '25 [6]
Oakland Technical High School	Varsity	19	20	6	1	DNF	20	88	Garrett Connorton '27 [1-6] Charlotte Tilp '27 [1-5] Rita Waugh '27 [6]
Marin Catholic	Wildcats 2	20	18	21	17	4	10	90	Christiano Coelho '26 Stella Ward Turko '27
Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	8	17	19	21	18	16	99	Skye Crawford '25 Claire Malykin '23
Amador Valley	Dons	21	12	16	15	16	19	99	Sophia Stomhagen '24 Cole Parker '24
Encinal High School	Jets	15	14	20	20	DNF	DNF	113	Cyrus Estilaei '27 Oscar Abrons '27

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.180+0.18

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Amador Valley Dons	47	47	47	47	47	47
Aragon High School Aragon	33	33	33	33	33	33
Archbishop Riordan Riordan	10	10	10	10	10	10
Yellowjackets Yellowjackets	95	95	95	95	95	95
Campolindo High School Cougars	43	43	43	43	43	43
Design Tech High School d.tech 1	28	28	28	28	28	28
Design Tech High School d.tech 2	27	27	27	27	27	27
Encinal High School Jets	51	51	51	51	51	51
Henry M. Gunn High School Titans 1	29	29	29	29	29	29
Henry M. Gunn High School Titans 2	30	30	30	30	30	30
Marin Catholic Wildcats 1	139	139	139	139	139	139
Marin Catholic Wildcats 2	140	140	140	140	140	140
Oakland Technical High School Varsity	48	48	48	48	48	48
Varsity Varsity	102	102	102	102	102	102
Palo Alto High Vikings	32	32	32	32	32	32
Stevenson School Pirates 1	197	197	197	197	197	197
Stevenson School Pirates 2	198	198	198	198	198	198
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks	79	79	79	79	79	79
The Athenian School Owls	54	54	54	54	54	54
Blues Blues	5	5	5	5	5	5
Willow Glen Willow Glen	108	108	108	108	108	108

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Amador Valley	Dons	Sophia Stomhagen '24	Cole Parker '24
Aragon High School	Aragon	Marie Peroulas '29	Sarah Garcia '25
Archbishop Riordan	Riordan	Eva Bennett '25	Sophie Bucker '24
Campolindo High School	Cougars	Liam Hearn '24 [1-6]	Sage Balducci '26 [1-5] Patricia Davila Gil '26 [6]
Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	John Nix '25 [1-6]	Linnea Furlan '23 [1-5] Joeclyn Chen '26 [6]
Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	Skye Crawford '25	Claire Malykin '23
Encinal High School	Jets	Cyrus Estilaei '27	Oscar Abrons '27
Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans 1	David Hervy '25	Jaehyoung Park '24
Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans 2	Jaiden Jacobs '24	Arthur Tran '24
Marin Catholic	Wildcats 1	Ben Brooks '24	Luca Hines '24
Marin Catholic	Wildcats 2	Christiano Coelho '26	Stella Ward Turko '27
Oakland Technical High School	Varsity	Garrett Connorton '27 [1-6]	Charlotte Tilp '27 [1-5] Rita Waugh '27 [6]
Palo Alto High	Vikings	Mira Stettner '27	Cal Currier '24
Stevenson School	Pirates 1	Patrick O'Hara '27	Aaron Eagle '27
Stevenson School	Pirates 2	Abbie Zhang '24	Tim Zhao '24
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	Charles Winstead '24 [1-2, 6] Genevieve Cantin '25 [3-5]	Paula Castillo Hi Espino '23 [1-5] Genevieve Cantin '25 [6]
The Athenian School	Owls	Matthew Daco '26	California Nunes '24

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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2023 Norcal 6 Silver Fleet

Division A

From the notes