| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Greenwich High School | Cardinals | 4–0 |
| 2 |  |
Brunswick School | Bruins | 3–1 |
| 3 |  |
Greenwich Academy | Varsity | 2–2 |
| 4 |  |
Greens Farms Academy | Dragons | 2–2 |
| 5 |  |
Staples High School | Varsity | 1–3 |
| 6 |  |
Darien High School | Varsity | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 9,837 team race matches sailed before 2023-05-03, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 10 of 12 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.717 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −2.98 ± 1.00: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 1% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greenwich High School Cardinals | 4 | 1.96 school +0.34 | Cardinals Skipper / Cardinals Crew 12–0 | 42% | 4–0 (100%) | +2.3 |
| 2 | Brunswick School Bruins | 1 | 6.73 school +0.29 | Sebastian Sheppard / Wills Gandy 3.07 Thomas Whidden / Henry Ginnel 2.28 Wills Gandy / Sean Mensi | 98% | 3–1 (75%) | −0.9 |
| 3 | Greenwich Academy Varsity | 5 | 1.80 school +0.19 | Gators Skipper / Gators Crew 6–6 | 35% | 2–2 (50%) | +0.6 |
| 4 | Greens Farms Academy Dragons | 2 | 2.53 school +0.56 | Ollie Ennico / Avery Beck Adam Marz / Hayes Cooper Van Swearingen / Colin Verrengia | 50% | 2–2 (50%) | +0.0 |
| 5 | Staples High School Varsity | 6 | 1.70 | Graham Lewis / Annabelle Lott Bennett Lindau / Sienna Young Wreckers Skipper / Madilyn Brundige | 32% | 1–3 (25%) | −0.3 |
| 6 | Darien High School Varsity | 3 | 1.62 | Blue Wave Skipper / Blue Wave Crew 0–12 | 43% | 0–4 (0%) | −1.7 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greenwich High School | 1.96 | 4.96 | 4–0 | 1.7 | ≥+3.00 | 5.3 | <1% |
| 3 | Greenwich Academy | 1.80 | 2.84 | 2–2 | 1.4 | +1.04 | 0.3 | 45% |
| 4 | Greens Farms Academy | 2.53 | 2.55 | 2–2 | 2.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 5 | Staples High School | 1.70 | 1.15 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.55 | 0.1 | 82% |
| 6 | Darien High School | 1.62 | -1.38 | 0–4 | 1.7 | ≤−3.00 | 2.9 | >99% |
| 2 | Brunswick School | 6.73 | 3.42 | 3–1 | 3.9 | −3.31 | 2.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals Skipper | Greenwich High School | 0.42 | 3.42 | 12–0 | 5.1 | ≥+3.00 | 15.9 | <1% |
| Gators Skipper | Greenwich Academy | 0.42 | 1.46 | 6–6 | 4.2 | +1.04 | 1.0 | 19% |
| Ollie Ennico | Greens Farms Academy | 0.94 | 0.96 | 2–2 | 2.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Adam Marz | Greens Farms Academy | 0.42 | 0.44 | 2–2 | 2.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Van Swearingen | Greens Farms Academy | 0.42 | 0.44 | 2–2 | 2.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Graham Lewis | Staples High School | 1.44 | 0.89 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.55 | 0.1 | 82% |
| Bennett Lindau | Staples High School | 0.68 | 0.13 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.55 | 0.1 | 82% |
| Wreckers Skipper | Staples High School | -0.62 | -1.17 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.55 | 0.1 | 82% |
| Blue Wave Skipper | Darien High School | 0.42 | -2.58 | 0–12 | 5.2 | ≤−3.00 | 8.6 | >99% |
| Sebastian Sheppard | Brunswick School | 3.07 | -0.25 | 3–1 | 3.9 | −3.31 | 2.2 | >99% |
| Wills Gandy | Brunswick School | 1.00 | -2.32 | 3–1 | 3.9 | −3.31 | 2.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Bruins | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 DNF |
| 6 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bruins | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Cardinals | 1-5-6 | def. | |
Bruins | 2-3-4 RAF |
| 12 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Dragons | 2-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Greenwich High School | Cardinals | Cardinals Skipper '23 | Cardinals Crew '23 |
|
Brunswick School | Bruins | Sebastian Sheppard '27 Thomas Whidden '24 Wills Gandy '30 |
Wills Gandy '30 Henry Ginnel '26 Sean Mensi '26 |
|
Greenwich Academy | Varsity | Gators Skipper '23 | Gators Crew '23 |
|
Greens Farms Academy | Dragons | Adam Marz '29 Ollie Ennico '28 Van Swearingen '30 |
Hayes Cooper '27 Avery Beck '27 Colin Verrengia '27 |
|
Staples High School | Varsity | Bennett Lindau '25 Graham Lewis '28 Wreckers Skipper '23 |
Sienna Young '25 Annabelle Lott '25 Madilyn Brundige '28 |
|
Darien High School | Varsity | Blue Wave Skipper '23 | Blue Wave Crew '23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
