Greenwich Academy '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.27 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.14 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 18–9 (67%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 12–3 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 6–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (27 matches) the record is 18–9 against 5.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+12.1). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 30 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-01 | FCSL Gold Cup | skipper | 0.71 | 5.49 | 12–3 | 1.7 | +4.77 | 29.0 | <1% |
| 2023-05-03 | FCSL Gold Cup | skipper | 0.42 | 1.46 | 6–6 | 4.2 | +1.04 | 1.0 | 19% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| FCSL Gold Cup | Skipper | TR | 5 | 80% | — |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| FCSL Gold Cup | Skipper | TR | 4 | 50% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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