| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Brunswick School | Bruins | 5–0 |
| 2 |  |
Greenwich Academy | Varsity | 4–1 |
| 3 |  |
Greens Farms Academy | Dragons | 2–3 |
| 4 |  |
Greenwich High School | Cardinals | 2–3 |
| 5 |  |
Fairfield Ludlowe High School | Falcons | 1–4 |
| 6 |  |
Darien High School | Blue Wave | 1–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,133 team race matches sailed before 2024-05-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 6 of 15 matches (40%) with a log-loss of 1.131 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −3.40 ± 0.58: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 1% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Greenwich Academy | 2.43 | 7.21 | 4–1 | 0.6 | +4.77 | 9.7 | <1% |
| 1 | Brunswick School | 5.07 | 8.07 | 5–0 | 2.8 | ≥+3.00 | 4.1 | 3% |
| 3 | Greens Farms Academy | 5.20 | 4.02 | 2–3 | 2.9 | −1.18 | 0.6 | 93% |
| 5 | Fairfield Ludlowe High School | 4.01 | 2.67 | 1–4 | 1.8 | −1.34 | 0.6 | 94% |
| 6 | Darien High School | 4.97 | 2.49 | 1–4 | 2.6 | −2.48 | 2.2 | 99% |
| 4 | Greenwich High School | 6.87 | 3.84 | 2–3 | 4.3 | −3.04 | 4.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gators Skipper | Greenwich Academy | 0.71 | 5.49 | 12–3 | 1.7 | +4.77 | 29.0 | <1% |
| Sebastian Sheppard | Brunswick School | 2.76 | 5.76 | 5–0 | 2.8 | ≥+3.00 | 4.1 | 3% |
| Bruins Skipper | Brunswick School | 0.73 | 3.73 | 5–0 | 2.8 | ≥+3.00 | 4.1 | 3% |
| Wills Gandy | Brunswick School | 1.00 | 4.00 | 5–0 | 2.8 | ≥+3.00 | 4.1 | 3% |
| Avery Beck | Greens Farms Academy | 1.58 | 0.40 | 2–3 | 2.9 | −1.18 | 0.6 | 93% |
| Luke Demartino | Fairfield Ludlowe High School | 0.35 | -0.99 | 1–4 | 1.8 | −1.34 | 0.6 | 94% |
| Amelia Woodworth | Fairfield Ludlowe High School | 1.46 | 0.12 | 2–8 | 3.6 | −1.34 | 1.1 | 95% |
| David Brown | Darien High School | 1.39 | -1.09 | 1–4 | 2.6 | −2.48 | 2.2 | 99% |
| Maxwell Connor | Darien High School | 1.86 | -0.62 | 1–4 | 2.6 | −2.48 | 2.2 | 99% |
| Luca Larosa | Greenwich High School | 1.75 | -1.29 | 2–3 | 4.3 | −3.04 | 4.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Blue Wave | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cardinals | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Falcons | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Blue Wave | 2-3-6 |
| 5 | |
Bruins | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cardinals | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Blue Wave | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Bruins | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cardinals | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Bruins | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Wave | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Falcons | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bruins | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Dragons | 2-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Cardinals | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Blue Wave | 1-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Brunswick School | Bruins | Bruins Skipper '27 Sebastian Sheppard '27 Wills Gandy '30 |
Henry Ginnel '26 Andrew Ohls '26 Sean Mensi '26 |
|
Greenwich Academy | Varsity | Gators Skipper '23 | Gators Crew '23 |
|
Greens Farms Academy | Dragons | Avery Beck '27 Emmet Ennico '25 Glen Foster '26 |
Alec Crum '27 Caroline Collins '26 Hayes Cooper '27 Savvy Dreas '24 |
|
Greenwich High School | Cardinals | Luca Larosa '26 Marcos Rotella '26 Richard Sykes '26 Sebastian Sheppard '27 |
Annabelle Elkin '25 Mollie Wood '25 Michael Donovan '26 Marcos Rotella '26 |
|
Fairfield Ludlowe High School | Falcons | Amelia Woodworth '27 Luke Demartino '27 |
Luke Demartino '27 Piper Youngs '29 Amelia Woodworth '27 |
|
Darien High School | Blue Wave | Conrad Straden '24 David Brown '24 Maxwell Connor '25 |
Selen Yasanliel '26 Ryan Hoffman '24 Ella Seymour '26 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
