Darien High School '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.17 (fleet 1.95) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–5 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 5–5 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (10 matches) the record is 5–5 against 6.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-01 | FCSL Gold Cup | skipper | 1.39 | -1.09 | 1–4 | 2.6 | −2.48 | 2.2 | 99% |
| 2024-04-30 | FCSL Silver Cup | skipper | 1.58 | 1.24 | 4–1 | 4.1 | −0.34 | 0.0 | 88% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Groton, CT | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.0 | 1.78 |
| FCSL Silver Cup | Skipper | TR | 5 | 80% | — |
| FCSL Gold Cup | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| 2024 NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day) | Skipper | A | 2 | 9.5 | 0.28 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Lakevile, CT | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.1 | 1.85 |
| CT State Invitational - 2023 | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.8 | 1.13 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier @ UConn Avery Point | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.5 | 0.82 |
| Connecticut State Championship 2022 | Skipper | B | 2 | 11.5 | -2.70 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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