| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Greenwich High School | Cardinals | 5–0 |
| 2 |  |
Darien High School | Blue Wave | 4–1 |
| 3 |  |
Greenwich Country Day School | Tigers | 3–2 |
| 4 |  |
Staples High School | Varsity | 2–3 |
| 5 |  |
Weston High School | Trojans | 1–4 |
| 6 |  |
Sacred Heart Greenwich | Varsity | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,118 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 14 of 15 matches (93%) with a log-loss of 0.185 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.60 ± 0.63: a typical event, more orderly than 86% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greenwich High School | 6.82 | 9.82 | 5–0 | 4.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 71% |
| 3 | Greenwich Country Day School | 1.55 | 3.83 | 3–2 | 1.9 | +2.28 | 1.3 | 25% |
| 2 | Darien High School | 5.23 | 4.88 | 4–1 | 4.1 | −0.34 | 0.0 | 88% |
| 4 | Staples High School | 1.93 | 1.51 | 2–3 | 2.2 | −0.42 | 0.1 | 82% |
| 5 | Weston High School | 0.92 | -0.04 | 1–4 | 1.5 | −0.96 | 0.2 | 90% |
| 6 | Sacred Heart Greenwich | -0.48 | -3.48 | 0–5 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luca Larosa | Greenwich High School | 1.69 | 4.69 | 5–0 | 4.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 71% |
| Margaux Citrin | Greenwich Country Day School | 0.65 | 2.93 | 3–2 | 1.9 | +2.28 | 1.3 | 25% |
| Owen Chickering | Greenwich Country Day School | 0.59 | 2.87 | 3–2 | 1.9 | +2.28 | 1.3 | 25% |
| Harrison Thompson | Greenwich Country Day School | 0.06 | 2.34 | 3–2 | 1.9 | +2.28 | 1.3 | 25% |
| David Brown | Darien High School | 1.58 | 1.24 | 4–1 | 4.1 | −0.34 | 0.0 | 88% |
| Maxwell Connor | Darien High School | 1.84 | 1.50 | 4–1 | 4.1 | −0.34 | 0.0 | 88% |
| Graham Lewis | Staples High School | 1.54 | 1.12 | 2–3 | 2.2 | −0.42 | 0.1 | 82% |
| Bennett Lindau | Staples High School | 0.80 | 0.38 | 2–3 | 2.2 | −0.42 | 0.1 | 82% |
| Wreckers Skipper | Staples High School | -0.47 | -0.89 | 2–3 | 2.2 | −0.42 | 0.1 | 82% |
| Hannah Austin | Weston High School | 0.12 | -0.84 | 1–4 | 1.5 | −0.96 | 0.2 | 90% |
| William Walker | Weston High School | -0.20 | -1.16 | 1–4 | 1.5 | −0.96 | 0.2 | 90% |
| Avery Quake | Sacred Heart Greenwich | -0.23 | -3.23 | 0–5 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| Lily Fitzpatrick | Sacred Heart Greenwich | -0.35 | -3.35 | 0–5 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trojans | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Blue Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Blue Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Trojans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tigers | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Blue Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Tigers | 1-2-6 DNF | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trojans | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Tigers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Blue Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Tigers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Cardinals | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Blue Wave | 2-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Greenwich High School | Cardinals | Luca Larosa '26 Marcos Rotella '26 Richard Sykes '26 Sebastian Sheppard '27 |
Wellington Kennedy '24 Mollie Wood '25 Michael Donovan '26 Annabelle Elkin '25 |
|
Darien High School | Blue Wave | Conrad Straden '24 David Brown '24 Maxwell Connor '25 |
Ella Seymour '26 Stefan Hartz '26 Finn Hagen '26 Gavin Hanig '26 Brendan Haidinger '24 |
|
Greenwich Country Day School | Tigers | Harrison Thompson '26 Margaux Citrin '26 Owen Chickering '25 |
Grant Zucconi '28 Leighton Krueger '26 Mary Chickering '27 |
|
Staples High School | Varsity | Bennett Lindau '25 Graham Lewis '28 Wreckers Skipper '23 |
Sienna Young '25 Annabelle Lott '25 Madilyn Brundige '28 |
|
Weston High School | Trojans | Hannah Austin '27 Reese Ambrose '25 William Walker '26 |
Lola Audan '25 Grace Forte '24 Griffin Hayden '24 Glen Kopis '26 |
|
Sacred Heart Greenwich | Varsity | Avery Quake '26 Caitlin Dean '26 Lily Fitzpatrick '26 |
Sutton Burchetta '26 Emily Shull '25 Ava Clear '25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
