MBJA IceBreaker 2023

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Mixed 25 11 36
2 Mona Shores High School Mona Shores High School Mona Shores Mixed 16 32 48
3 Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 1 13 36 49
4 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 35 18 53
5 Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Gold Mixed 42 28 70
6 Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 2 37 43 80
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 1 1 2 2 3 1 2 1 1 13 Lj Nykamp '25
Matthew Tevelde '26
Mona Shores High School Mona Shores High School Mona Shores Mixed 3 1 1 1 2 4 2 2 16 Nyle Eggert '24
Brady Wallace '27
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Mixed 4 4 3 2 3 1 5 3 25 Greta Traver '23
Sophia Pierce '23
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 5 3 4 4 4 5 4 6 35 Jack Hubbard '25
Logan Thien '25
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 2 2 5 5 5 6 3 6 5 37 Kiarra Bracelly '25
Olive Mcgough '27
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Gold Mixed 6 6 6 6 5 6 3 4 42 Gavin Yonker '24
Joshua Hacker '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Mixed 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 11 Amelia Traver '24
Evan Carrillo '23
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red Mixed 2 1 5 1 4 1 2 2 18 Max Eggert '26
Elsie Torresen '27
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Gold Mixed 4 3 2 6 2 4 3 4 28 Charlie Vink '27
Elijah Parker Baldus '23
Mona Shores High School Mona Shores High School Mona Shores Mixed 5 5 3 3 5 3 5 3 32 Lila Torresen '25
Lucas Williams '26
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 1 3 4 4 4 3 6 6 6 36 Ella Sligh '24
Anneke Hackney '25
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 2 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 5 43 Cameron Bert '26
Jonas Pearson '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2021 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Mixed 111335511
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Mixed 222446622
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Gold Mixed33551133
Holland Christian High SchoolHolland Christian High School Mixed44662244
Mona Shores High SchoolMona Shores High School Mona Shores Mixed55113355
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red Mixed66224466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Mixed 122446622
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Mixed 233551133
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Gold Mixed44662244
Holland Christian High SchoolHolland Christian High School Mixed55113355
Mona Shores High SchoolMona Shores High School Mona Shores Mixed66224466
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red Mixed11335511

Conditions — 04/22/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 68%  ·  Pressure 1010.3 hPa

Temperature

42°F
↑ 43°F   ↓ 40°F
Feels like 34°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.2 kn
avg  ·  max 8.6 kn
Gusts to 19.8 kn
From W (280°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover93% Sunshine6.2 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1010.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Black River Public/Holland Christian/West Ottawa Public/Zeeland West: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.29 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Black River Public/Holland Christian/West Ottawa Public/Zeeland West by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Black River Public/Holland Christian/West Ottawa Public/Zeeland West, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →