MBJA Tulip Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Maroon 18 10 28
2 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 35 19 54
3 Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 38 38 76
4 Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Gold Mixed 33 50 83
5 Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School White (Mixed) 36 53 89
6 West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Mixed 44 49 93
7 Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 58 41 99
8 Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 60 40 100
9 Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 58 68 126
10 Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Gold (Mixed) 61 69 130
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Maroon 1 3 4 1 3 3 2 1 18 Greta Traver '23
Sophia Pierce '23
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Gold Mixed 6 9 5 3 2 1 4 3 33 Charlie Vink '27
Alexis Twa '26
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 3 1 3 4 6 2 8 8 35 Lila Torresen '25
Logan Thien '25
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School White (Mixed) 2 2 2 2 5 9 10 4 36 Evelyn Young '24
Addie Kimmell '25
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 8 10 1 5 4 4 1 5 38 Nyle Eggert '24
Parker Bonney '27
West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Mixed 9 5 8 8 1 5 6 2 44 Matthew Tevelde '26
Carson Dobb '24
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 7 6 7 9 9 7 3 10 58 Winston Hegg '26
Frannie Harbold '27
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 10 7 6 DNF 7 6 5 6 58 Kiarra Bracelly '25 [1-4]
Evan Carrillo '28 [5]
Cameron Bert '26 [6-8]
Olive Mcgough '27 [1-4]
Ella Sligh '24 [5]
Evan Carrillo '28 [6-8]
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 4 8 10 6 8 10 7 7 60 Alex Reynolds '24
Max Braund '24
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Gold (Mixed) 5 4 9 7 10 8 9 9 61 Evan Mcnanney '25
Elsa Leal '26
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Holland Christian High School Holland Christian High School Maroon 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 10 Amelia Traver '24
Lily Johnson '23
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Grey Mixed 5 2 2 2 1 3 3 1 19 Max Eggert '26
Elsie Torresen '27
Spring Lake High School Spring Lake High School Red 2 3 4 6 5 6 6 6 38 Jack Hubbard '25
Lucas Williams '24
Traverse City West Traverse City West TCW Mixed 7 6 3 8 4 2 5 5 40 Isley Moshier '25
Anders Lyons '26
Black River Public School Black River Public School Mixed 6 7 5 9 3 4 4 3 41 Ella Sligh '24
Anneke Hackney '25
West Ottawa High School West Ottawa High School Mixed 4 8 7 4 6 5 7 8 49 Joey Skerbeck '23
Cameron Bert '26
Grand Haven High School Grand Haven High School GH Gold Mixed BKD 4 6 5 8 9 8 4 50 Gavin Yonker '24 [1-4, 7-8]
Joshua Hacker '24 [5-6]
Joshua Hacker '24 [1-4, 7-8]
Gavin Yonker '24 [5-6]
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School White (Mixed) 3 5 9 3 7 8 9 9 53 Bobby Cooper '27
Evelyn Young '24
Traverse City Central Traverse City Central TCC Mixed 8 9 8 7 9 10 10 7 68 Andrew Roeder '27
Annabelle Rohe '28
Grosse Pointe South High School Grosse Pointe South High School Gold (Mixed) 9 10 10 10 DNS 7 2 10 69 Gavin Vogel '26 [1-2, 5-8]
Ana Kozak '26 [3-4]
Ana Kozak '26 [1-2, 5-8]
Gavin Vogel '26 [3-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2021 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Mixed11335577
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Gold Mixed22446688
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School Gold (Mixed)4466881010
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School White (Mixed)33557799
Holland Christian High SchoolHolland Christian High School Maroon55779911
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Grey Mixed6688101022
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red77991133
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Mixed8810102244
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Mixed99113355
West Ottawa High SchoolWest Ottawa High School Mixed1010224466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Black River Public SchoolBlack River Public School Mixed22446688
Grand Haven High SchoolGrand Haven High School GH Gold Mixed33557799
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School Gold (Mixed)55779911
Grosse Pointe South High SchoolGrosse Pointe South High School White (Mixed)4466881010
Holland Christian High SchoolHolland Christian High School Maroon6688101022
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Grey Mixed77991133
Spring Lake High SchoolSpring Lake High School Red8810102244
Traverse City CentralTraverse City Central TCC Mixed99113355
Traverse City WestTraverse City West TCW Mixed1010224466
West Ottawa High SchoolWest Ottawa High School Mixed11335577

Conditions — 05/20/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 68%  ·  Pressure 1019.9 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.2 kn
avg  ·  max 13.4 kn
Gusts to 28.4 kn
From NW (312°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover40% Sunshine8.5 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1019.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Black River Public/Holland Christian/West Ottawa Public/Zeeland West: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.00 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Black River Public/Holland Christian/West Ottawa Public/Zeeland West by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Black River Public/Holland Christian/West Ottawa Public/Zeeland West, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →